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2026 United States Senate election in Alaska

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2026 United States Senate election in Alaska
← 2020
November 3, 2026
2032 →
Reporting
77%
as of November 4, 6:21 AM AT
 
Candidate Mary Peltola Dan S. Sullivan
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 102,701 102,075
Percentage 48.18% 47.88%
U.S. senator before election

Dan S. Sullivan
Republican

 Elected U.S. senator

TBD

The 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Alaska. Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan is seeking a third term. He is being challenged by Democratic former representative Mary Peltola. The election will be conducted under ranked-choice voting.

A nonpartisan primary election was held on August 18 to determine the four candidates in the general election. Peltola and Sullivan were the first to advance with 49.5% and 41.4% of the vote respectively, followed by Republican former U.S. Forest Service employee Daniel J. Sullivan and Republican perennial candidate Gerald Heikes.

Daniel J. Sullivan's candidacy drew allegations of being a spoiler due to having the same name as the incumbent, but was allowed to remain on the ballot by the state Supreme Court and listed as unaffiliated to help avoid confusion. The Trump government filed a lawsuit to block the election results if Dan S. Sullivan loses by a small margin, arguing this outcome could result from him sharing a name with another candidate, but the lawsuit was dismissed by a federal judge.

Democrats have not won a Senate election in Alaska since 2008.

Candidates

[edit]

Republican Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Christopher Miklos, businessman[10]

Democratic Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Withdrew after advancing to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Scott Kohlhaas, consultant[6][2]

Green Party

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Alaskan Party

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Independents

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Sidney "Sid" Hill, political gadfly and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2022[6][2]
  • Reece J. Roberts, paramedic[2][6]
  • Shirley Saucerman, medical doctor[2][6]

Primary election

[edit]

Under Alaska's voting system, all candidates, regardless of party, run on the same primary ballot. The top four candidates in the primary advance to the general election, which is then conducted using ranked-choice voting.[17]

Background

[edit]

Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan announced his run for re-election in early 2025. He was first elected in 2014, defeating Mark Begich, the most recent Democrat to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate. He was last re-elected in 2020, prior to the implementation of Alaska's ranked-choice voting system.[1] Facing few obvious swing state targets to regain the Senate majority in 2026, Democrats began looking towards more Republican-leaning states, such as Ohio and Texas, as potential targets.[18] Among these states was Alaska, where Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer heavily courted former U.S. Representative Mary Peltola, the last Democrat to win any statewide election in Alaska, to run for Senate.[19] Peltola narrowly lost her congressional seat in 2024, and had considered running for either Senate or governor, but she ultimately decided to enter the Senate race in early 2026, setting up the race between her and Sullivan.[20][21]

Candidacy of Daniel James Sullivan and controversy of names

[edit]

Daniel James Sullivan Jr. (born June 1957)[22] is a retired teacher and United States Forest Service employee from Petersburg, Alaska, who filed to run as a Republican three days before the filing deadline.[23] Daniel James Sullivan and Daniel Scott Sullivan are unrelated to each other, and are unrelated to former Anchorage mayor Daniel Albert Sullivan.[24]

In an interview with the Petersburg Pilot, Sullivan stated that he had been considering running against the incumbent U.S. senator for 12 years, and remarked that he finally decided to run after the Senator's lack of opposition to the Anti-Weaponization Fund.[25] Senator Sullivan said this was "an effort to confuse Alaskans" and "dirty politics" by Democrats, calling Dan J. Sullivan a "sham candidate". This was denied by Dan J. Sullivan, who called himself a "pragmatic Republican centrist". It was also denied by Mary Peltola's campaign, the Alaska Democratic Party, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Senator Sullivan threatened legal action if the Lieutenant Governor of Alaska did not remove Dan J. Sullivan from the ballot.[26]

Dan J. Sullivan grew up in the Chicago metropolitan area, and has lived in Southeast Alaska since 1980. He worked for the United States Forest Service in his early career before beginning a career as an elementary school teacher.[22] Sullivan taught in elementary schools for over 20 years before retiring.[27] He was appointed to the city of Petersburg's Public Safety Advisory Board in December 2021.[27] He served in that position until October 2022.[28] He stated that he was a member of the Alaskan Independence Party from when he moved to Alaska in 1980 until the party's dissolution in late 2025.[27][25]

Sullivan's initial campaign announcement stated that he was "focused on unseating the incumbent, putting Alaska first, and restoring accountability, common sense, and public service to Washington, D.C."[23] He later described his political philosophy as "a pragmatic Republican centrist" similar to Lisa Murkowski, with influence from Rand Paul.[22] Incumbent U.S. Senator Daniel Scott Sullivan argued in an early June 2026 interview with CNN that "[Daniel James Sullivan's] whole purpose of running is to confuse Alaskans, to make him, make them think – Alaskan voters – that somehow he's me, so they could rig the vote in favor of Mary Peltola."[26] An analysis of Federal Election Commission records by KTUU-TV showed that he had donated to Peltola's previous campaigns, including $100 in 2022 and $30 in 2024. KTUU reported that "That financial history is the extent of the documented link between the Petersburg Sullivan and the Peltola campaign."[29] His initial press release and website design were supported by political strategist Amber Lee, who has previously worked with Democratic campaigns in Alaska.[30] Lee has publicly spoken in favor of Peltola's candidacy, including in a January 2026 interview with The Hill.[30][31]

The Wall Street Journal reported that weeks before the election, polls showed that approximately one third of voters likely to vote in the primary election could not distinguish the two candidates.[32] Dan J. Sullivan's candidacy was the subject of legal debate, which as of June 27, 2026 advanced to the Alaska Supreme Court.[33] In its initial response to Sullivan's candidacy filing, the Alaska Division of Elections stated that Sullivan's name would appear on the ballot as "Sullivan, Dan J. (Registered Republican)."[34]

An Alaskan election official ordered Sullivan's name removed from the ballot, as his candidacy "was not filed in order to declare an actual good-faith candidacy for the office of United States Senator, but was instead filed with a purpose to confuse or mislead and to thereby compromise the ballot's fairness or neutrality",[35] a decision he appealed.[36] Anchorage Superior Court judge Thomas A. Matthews reversed the Division of Elections' decision to exclude Sullivan from the primary ballot on June 26. Matthews' decision ruled that the "good-faith" standard for ballot access was not supported by Alaska law, the Division of Elections' regulations, or Article One, Section 3 of the United States Constitution.[34][33][37] On July 2 the Alaska Supreme Court affirmed the decision, ordering Sullivan's name to be listed on the August 18th primary ballot.[38] The Division of Elections released a sample ballot that will distinguish between the two Sullivans by listing Dan J. Sullivan as "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." and no party affiliation (despite Sullivan filing as a Republican) and identifying Dan S. Sullivan as the incumbent, which the DoE had not done for any other incumbent for at least 10 years.[39]

Campaign

[edit]

Peltola's entry into the race immediately made the race competitive, according to most predictors.[40] She still faces significant hurdles, such as Sullivan's incumbency and lack of a prominent Republican challenger, the unpopularity of the national Democratic Party in Alaska, and a reduction in cross-party support. Lisa Murkowski, Alaska's other U.S. Senator and a noted moderate Republican, had endorsed Peltola in her 2022 and 2024 bids for U.S. House, but she endorsed Sullivan in this race instead.[41] However, as Trump's unpopularity grew, especially amidst the 2026 Iran war, Peltola's chances of flipping the Senate seat grew.[42]

Over the course of the primary campaign, a super PAC called Fair Deal Alaska registered to a virtual office address in Wasilla spent around $770,000 promoting Green Party candidate Richard Grayson and Democrat Carol Hafner in what the Alaska Beacon and the Anchorage Daily News described as an apparent attempt to dilute support for Peltola in the general election.[43][44] Another PAC called American Democracy Project spent over $240,000 to promote Democrat David Leslie.[44] A similar group called Right for Alaska spent $1.2 million promoting Republican Gerald Heikes and Alaskan Party candidate Earl "Skip" Southworth, who were considered more likely to draw support from Dan S. Sullivan.[43][44]

Both Grayson and Leslie expressed concern about the outside spending on their behalf to the Anchorage Daily News. Grayson—a satirical candidate living in Arizona—said that he supported Peltola and pledged to withdraw if he advanced to the general election.[44]

Endorsements

[edit]
Scott Kohlhaas (L)
Political parties
Mary Peltola (D)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Party officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Dan S. Sullivan (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dan S. Sullivan (R) $13,760,054 $9,388,080 $5,103,717
Mary Peltola (D) $32,623,721 $29,463,904 $3,159,817
Dan J. Sullivan (R) $30,230 $26,754 $3,476
Source: Federal Election Commission[78]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[f]		 Margin
of error		 Ann
Diener
(D)		 Fred
Grauberger
(R)		 Richard
Grayson
(G)		 Sid
Hill
(I)		 William
Hunt
(D)		 Christopher
Miklos
(R)		 Mary
Peltola
(D)		 James
Ryan
(R)[g]		 Dan S.
Sullivan
(R)		 Undecided
June 1, 2026 Hunt withdraws from the race
April 21, 2026 Diener withdraws from the race
April 10, 2026 Miklos withdraws from the race
Alaska Survey Research[79] March 19–22, 2026 1,283 (LV) ± 3.0% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 46% 3% 41% —

Results

[edit]

The Associated Press projected that Mary Peltola, Dan S. Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan, and Gerald Heikes will advance to the general election.[80]

Results by state house district:
  Peltola
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  S. Sullivan
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Results by precinct:
  Peltola
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  S. Sullivan
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Darden
  •   90–100%
  Tie
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50%
Top-four primary results[81]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Peltola 82,244 49.5
Republican Dan S. Sullivan (incumbent) 68,726 41.4
No party listed[h] Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 4,107 2.5
Democratic David Leslie (withdrew) 1,850 1.1
Republican Gerald L. Heikes 1,741 1.1
Democratic Carol Hafner 1,009 0.6
Republican Heather McElwain 972 0.6
Republican Dustin Darden 808 0.5
Alaskan Earl D. "Skip" Southworth 803 0.5
Libertarian Scott Kohlhaas 794 0.5
Republican Richard Benedict Mayers 609 0.4
Independent Reece Roberts 602 0.4
Independent Sid Hill 522 0.3
Republican Fred C. Grauberger 479 0.3
Green Richard Grayson 432 0.3
Independent Shirley Saucerman 306 0.2
Total votes 166,004 100.0

General election

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Democratic candidate David Leslie placed fourth in the primary. Leslie, a democratic socialist who had criticized Peltola's stances on the Gaza genocide, environmental protection, and actions by United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), initially said he would not withdraw but later reversed course, citing "pressure from not just the Alaska Democratic leadership, but many different institutions of power".[82][83]

Leslie's withdrawal allowed Republican perennial candidate Gerald Heikes to advance to the general election.[83]

On September 23, The New York Times published allegations from anonymous aides who had worked for Peltola's congressional office and Senate campaign. The report included text messages showing that Peltola had used an ableist slur and expressed hope that a board member of a local Planned Parenthood chapter "dies of a botched abortion". The anonymous aides also claimed that Peltola had used a homophobic slur, shoved a congressional aide, and ordered congressional aides to feed crickets to her family's pet chameleon. The Peltola campaign claimed that some of the allegations were false or exaggerated, and said that many of the alleged outbursts could be attributed to stress from the death of Peltola's husband and mother while she was serving in Congress.[84] The Alaska Democratic Party and Republican senator Lisa Murkowski also defended Peltola, while Senator Sullivan and the Alaska Republican Party condemned her. Alaskan political analysts and operatives interviewed by the Anchorage Daily News did not believe the allegations would have a major impact on the election.[85]

In late October, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit to block the election results if Dan S. Sullivan loses by a small margin, arguing this outcome could result from him sharing a name with another candidate.[86][87] A professor of law has suggested that the suit seems to lack merit and stated that the "statute simply doesn't let the Department of Justice enjoin certification" and that the "lawsuit could well be mooted by a wide Democratic victory or a narrow Republican one, and if not, the court will likely dismiss it next month".[88][89] Vanita Gupta, a former associate US attorney general, had similar views on the lack of merit, basing it on the power granted to states to determine their own elections.[90] It was dismissed by U.S. District Court Judge Sharon Gleason on November 1.[91]

On October 26, the Alaska Beacon reported that Dan J. Sullivan had switched his registered party affiliation from Republican to "Undeclared" when requesting an absentee ballot for the August primary.[92]

On October 28, it was reported by The New York Times that, according to Peltola's former campaign manager and longtime aide Elisa Rios, Peltola's campaign, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and Democratic political operative Jarid Kurtz spent months on a "ballot composition project" to recruit spoiler candidates. This included finding a person with the same name as Senator Dan S. Sullivan, with that person ultimately being Dan J. Sullivan. Kurtz also allegedly traveled Alaska attempting to recruit other candidates. The project also included ultimately abandoned efforts to create a "MAGA party" that would further dilute Republican support. Rios also claimed Peltola was not involved but she was "definitely aware" of the project.[93] Later that night Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy announced a state criminal investigation into Peltola's campaign.[94] On October 30 it was revealed that a federal investigation has been underway "for several months" already.[95] Peltola denied any knowledge of an effort to recruit another Dan Sullivan.[96] Several donors who had given money to Dan J. Sullivan's campaign reported being visited by FBI agents.[97] While Donald Trump sued to prevent the results from being certified if Peltota won due to the controversy, a federal judge dismissed the lawsuit on November 1.[98]

The controversy over Dan J. Sullivan's candidature entered the debate over 2026 Alaska Measure 2, to be voted in the same day as the Senate election, which proposes to change the system for future Senate elections. Supporters say abolishing the open primary will make it harder to add same-name spoiler candidates to the ballot; opponents say the ranked-choice vote reduces the spoiler effect (in this case, by allowing voters to rank both Sullivans ahead of Peltola).[99]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
ABC News[100] Tossup October 26, 2026
CBS News[101] Tossup October 30, 2026
The Cook Political Report[102] Tossup November 2, 2026
Decision Desk HQ[103] Tossup November 3, 2026
The Economist[104][i] Tossup November 2, 2026
FiftyPlusOne[105] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2026
Fox News[106] Tossup November 1, 2026
Inside Elections[107] Tossup October 29, 2026
MS NOW[108][109] Tossup October 29, 2026
NBC News[110] Tossup November 2, 2026
RealClearPolitics[111] Tossup November 2, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball[112] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2026
Silver Bulletin[113] Tossup November 2, 2026
Split Ticket[114] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2026

Debates and forums

[edit]
2026 United States Senate election in Alaska debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Mary Peltola Dan S. Sullivan
1[115] Aug. 27, 2026 Alaska Oil and Gas Association Michelle Egan Vimeo P P
2[116] Sep. 12, 2026 Kodiak Chamber of Commerce
KMXT (FM)		 Gary Stevens
Sara Fraser		 YouTube P P
3[117] Oct. 15, 2026 Alaska Public Media
KTOO
Alaska's News Source		 Lori Townsend
Liz Ruskin
Wil Courtney		 YouTube P P

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Dan S. Sullivan (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
Local officials
Individuals
  • Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon and candidate for this seat in 2020 (co-endorsement with Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.) (Independent)[121]
Labor unions
  • Public Safety Employees Association AFSCME Local 803[122]
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
Statewide officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (I)
Individuals
  • Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon and candidate for this seat in 2020 (co-endorsement with Dan S. Sullivan) (Independent)[121]
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 14, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dan S. Sullivan (R) $14,107,205 $11,999,191 $2,839,758
Mary Peltola (D) $36,887,509 $32,785,383 $4,102,126
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (I) $30,556 $28,654 $1,902
Source: Federal Election Commission[134]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Dan S.
Sullivan (R)		 Mary
Peltola (D)		 Other/
Undecided[j]		 Margin
270toWin[135] October 31 – November 1, 2026 November 2, 2026 45.5% 49.0% 5.5% Peltola +3.5%
Decision Desk HQ[136] through November 1, 2026 November 2, 2026 47.8% 49.2% 3.0% Peltola +1.4%
FiftyPlusOne[137] through November 1, 2026 November 3, 2026 47.4% 49.7% 2.9% Peltola +2.3%
RealClearPolitics[138] October 8 – November 1, 2026 November 2, 2026 48.2% 49.2% 2.6% Peltola +1.0%
Silver Bulletin[113] through November 1, 2026 November 3, 2026 45.9% 48.3% 5.8% Peltola +2.4%
Average 47.7% 49.1% 3.2% Peltola +2.1%

Ranked-choice polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[f]		 Margin
of error		 RCV
round		 Dan S.
Sullivan (R)		 Mary
Peltola (D)		 Dan J.
Sullivan (I)		 Gerald
Heikes (R)		 Undecided /
Not Ranked
Alaska Survey Research[139] October 26–29, 2026 1,326 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 46% 48% 3% 3% –
2 47% 48% 5% – –
3 49% 51% – – –
Data for Progress (D)[140] October 8–16, 2026 694 (LV) ± 4.0% BA 44% 47% 4% 1% 3% U
675 (LV) 1 46% 49% 4% 1% 3% NR
2 46% 49% 5% – 3% NR
671 (LV) 3 49% 51% – – 3% NR
660 (LV) 3[k] 50% 50% – – 3% NR
InsiderAdvantage (R)[141] October 9–10, 2026 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% BA 43% 48% 2% 2% 5% U
1[l] 48% 50% – – 2% U
Alaska Survey Research[142] October 1–3, 2026 1,512 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 45% 47% 5% 3% –
2 47% 48% 5% – –
3 49% 51% – – –
Alaska Survey Research[143] September 10–12, 2026 1,352 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 44% 48% 4% 4% –
2 45% 50% – 5% –
3[m] 48% 52% – – –
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[144][A]		 September 8–11, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% BA 41% 45% 4% 3% 7% U
1 43% 50% 4% 3% 7% NR
2[m] 45% 51% 4% – 8% NR
3[m] 47% 53% – – 11% NR
Data for Progress (D)[145] July 28 – August 4, 2026 605 (LV) ± 4.0% BA 41% 45% 4% 3% 5% U
578 (LV) 1 43% 49% 5% 3% 4% NR
575 (LV) 2 45% 50% 5% – 5% NR
567 (LV) 3[m] 47% 53% 5% – 6% NR
575 (LV) 3[k] 48% 52% – – 5% NR
578 (LV) 3[n] 48% 52% – – 4% NR

First-past-the-post polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[f]		 Margin
of error		 Dan S.
Sullivan (R)		 Mary
Peltola (D)		 Dan J.
Sullivan (I)		 Gerald
Heikes (R)		 Other Undecided
InsiderAdvantage (R)[146][147] October 31 – November 1, 2026 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 48% 2% 1% — 1%
50% 50% — — — —
AtlasIntel[148] October 28 – November 1, 2026 522 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 50% 1% 2% 2% —
New York Times/Siena University[149] October 23–30, 2026 610 (LV) ± 5.0% 46% 48% — — 0% 6%
Alaska Survey Research[139] October 26–29, 2026 1,326 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 3% 3% — —
Data for Progress (D)[140][o] October 8–16, 2026 694 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 47% 4% 1% — 3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[150] October 14–15, 2026 578 (RV) – 47% 48% — — — 5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[151] October 12–15, 2026 775 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 44% 3% 4% — 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[141][o] October 9–10, 2026 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 43% 48% 2% 2% — 5%
Alaska Survey Research[142][o] October 1–3, 2026 1,512 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 5% 3% — —
New York Times/Siena University[152] September 24 – October 1, 2026 504 (LV) ± 5.1% 43% 50% — — — 6%
Quantus Insights (R)[153] September 28–30, 2026 758 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 2% 1% – 5%
47%[p] 47% 2% 2% – 3%
50%[q] 50% – – – –
Trafalgar Group (R)[154] September 22–24, 2026 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 46% 3% 1% — 4%
co/efficient (R)[155] September 14–17, 2026 799 (LV) ± 3.5% 48%[r] 46% 1% 1% — 4%
49%[s] 46% — — — 5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[156] September 13–14, 2026 1,188 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 39% 7% 6% — 9%
Alaska Survey Research[143][o] September 10–12, 2026 1,352 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 48% 4% 4% — —
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[144][A][o]		 September 8–11, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 46% 4% 3% — 7%
Alaska Survey Research[157] August 20–23, 2026 1,495 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 51% — — — —
August 18, 2026 Primary election held
Alaska Survey Research[158] August 2–5, 2026 1,371 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 51% — — — —
Data for Progress (D)[145][o] July 28 – August 4, 2026 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 45% 4% 3% 5% –
New York Times/Siena University[159] June 15–29, 2026 593 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 45% — — 2% 5%
Alaska Survey Research[160] June 4–7, 2026 1,393 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 49% — 4% 3%[t] —
Alaska Survey Research[161] May 14–17, 2026 1,401 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 48% — 3% 5%[u] —
Alaska Survey Research[162][o] April 16–19, 2026 1,946 (LV) ± 2.5% 43% 49% — — 8%[v] —
Alaska Survey Research[79][o] March 19–22, 2026 1,590 (LV) ± 2.7% 44% 49% — — 7%[w] —
Public Policy Polling (D)[163][B] January 16–17, 2026 611 (V) — 47% 49% — — — 4%
January 12, 2026 Peltola enters the race
Alaska Survey Research[165] January 8–11, 2026 1,988 (LV) ± 2.2% 46% 48% — — — 6%
Data for Progress (D)[166] October 17–23, 2025 823 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 46% — — 5%[x] 4%
Alaska Survey Research[167] October 10–15, 2025 1,708 (LV) — 46% 48% — — — 6%
Alaska Survey Research[168] July 29 – August 1, 2025 1,623 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 42% — — — 11%
Data for Progress (D)[169] July 21–27, 2025 678 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% — — 5%[x] 4%
Alaska Survey Research[170] April 21–25, 2023 1,261 (LV) — 41% 44% — — — 15%
Hypothetical polling

Dan S. Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola vs. Christopher Miklos vs. Ann Diener

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[f]		 Margin
of error		 RCV
round		 Dan S.
Sullivan (R)		 Mary
Peltola (D)		 Christopher
Miklos (R)		 Ann
Diener (D)
Alaska Survey Research[79] March 19–22, 2026 961 (LV) ± 2.7% 1 44% 49% 5% 2%
959 (LV) 2 44% 50% 6% –
951 (LV) 3[m] 48% 52% – –

Dan S. Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola vs. James Ryan vs. Sid Hill

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[f]		 Margin
of error		 RCV
round		 Dan S.
Sullivan (R)		 Mary
Peltola (D)		 James
Ryan (R)		 Sid
Hill (I)
Alaska Survey Research[162] April 16–19, 2026 1,946 (LV) ± 2.5% 1 43% 49% 5% 3%
2 44% 50% 6% –

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[f]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
co/efficient (R)[155] September 14–17, 2026 799 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 44% 8%

Results

[edit]
2026 United States Senate election in Alaska
Party Candidate First choice
Votes %
Republican Dan S. Sullivan (incumbent)
Democratic Mary Peltola
No party listed[h] Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
Republican Gerald L. Heikes

Notes

[edit]
  1. ↑ Name shown as displayed on ballot, as per the Alaska Division of Elections.
  2. ↑ The Alaska Division of Elections issued a preliminary decision that Sullivan is not eligible to run for US Senator on June 10, and then a final decision declaring him ineligible June 16. The Anchorage Superior Court reversed the board's decision on June 26, putting J. Sullivan back on the ballot. He was listed without a party affiliation.
  3. ↑ Previously represented the 11th district from 2011 to 2013
  4. ↑ Lincoln was elected as a Democrat before leaving the party in 2019 and registering as an independent. He continued to caucus with the Democrats for the remainder of his term.
  5. ↑
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ↑ Candidate not running in this election
  8. 1 2 Undeclared[171]
  9. ↑ The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.
  10. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. 1 2 Hypothetical scenario where voters who ranked Dan J. Sullivan and whose vote is exhausted when that candidate is eliminated are instead distributed to Dan S. Sullivan
  12. ↑ Gerald Heikes and Dan J. Sullivan were eliminated and their votes were distributed simultaneously
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 Hypothetical continuation of elimination/distribution even though a candidate already exceeded 50%
  14. ↑ Hypothetical scenario where voters who ranked Dan J. Sullivan or Gerald Heikes and whose vote is exhausted when those candidates are eliminated are instead distributed to Dan S. Sullivan
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 First-choice results from a ranked-choice poll
  16. ↑ Leaners pushed
  17. ↑ Two-way
  18. ↑ Full ballot
  19. ↑ Only top two candidates
  20. ↑ Dustin Darden (R) with 3%
  21. ↑ Dustin Darden (R) with 5%
  22. ↑ James Ryan (R, undeclared) with 5%; Sid Hill (I) with 3%
  23. ↑ Christopher Miklos (R) with 5%; Ann Diener (D) with 2%
  24. 1 2 "I would rank neither" with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by AARP
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.[164]

References

[edit]
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  167. ↑ Sabbatini, Mark (October 22, 2025). "Poll: Peltola ahead of Sullivan in race that could decide control of US Senate". Juneau Independent. Archived from the original on November 13, 2025. Retrieved October 23, 2025.
  168. ↑ "2025 Summer Alaska Survey Report". Alaska Survey Research. August 22, 2025. Archived from the original on December 9, 2025. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  169. ↑ "Mary Peltola Would Be Front-Runner for Alaska Governor". Data for Progress. August 8, 2025. Archived from the original on August 8, 2025. Retrieved August 8, 2025.
  170. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (May 2, 2023). "New poll says Rep. Mary Peltola could take Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2026". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on June 28, 2025. Retrieved May 8, 2025.
  171. ↑ "Candidates". Alaska Division of Elections.
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Official campaign websites
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