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2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2024). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings

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Latest published ratings for competitive seats

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Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total, there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives. 218 are needed for a majority while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
  • Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain

The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.

Constituency Incumbent Ratings
District CPVI
[1]		 Incumbent Last result[2] Cook
Nov. 2,
2026[3]		 IE
Oct. 29,
2026[4]		 Sabato
Nov. 2,
2026[5]		 Econ.
Nov. 2,
2026[6][a]		 ST
Nov. 2,
2026[7]		 DDHQ
Nov. 2,
2026[8]		 FPO
Nov. 2,
2026[9]		 Fox
Oct. 27,
2026[10]		 Silver
Nov. 2,
2026[11]		 RCP
Nov. 2,
2026[12]		 Result
Alabama 2 R+7 Shomari Figures 54.6% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean D Likely R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Figures
Alaska at-large R+6 Nick Begich III 51.3% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Arizona 1 R+1 David Schweikert
(retiring)		 51.9% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip)
Arizona 2 R+7 Eli Crane 54.5% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Tossup
Arizona 5 R+10 Andy Biggs
(retiring)		 60.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R
Arizona 6 EVEN Juan Ciscomani 50.0% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip)
Arizona 8 R+8 Abraham Hamadeh 56.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R
Arkansas 2 R+8 French Hill 58.9% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
California 5 R+10 Tom McClintock 61.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R McClintock
California 6 D+5 Kevin Kiley 55.5% R[b] Solid D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Safe D (flip) Safe D (flip) Safe D (flip) Safe D (flip) Solid D (flip) Solid D (flip) Likely D (flip) Pan
(flip)
California 13 D+2 Adam Gray 50.0% D Likely D Tilt D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Solid D Likely D Gray
California 21 D+5 Jim Costa 52.6% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D Costa
California 22 D+1 David Valadao 53.4% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Safe D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Tossup Solid D (flip) Lean D (flip) Villegas
(flip)
California 45 D+3 Derek Tran 50.1% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D Tran
California 48 D+2 Darrell Issa
(retiring)		 59.3% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Safe D (flip) Likely D (flip) Solid D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Colorado 3 R+5 Jeff Hurd 50.8% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup
Colorado 4 R+9 Lauren Boebert 53.6% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tossup
Colorado 5 R+5 Jeff Crank 54.7% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup
Colorado 8 EVEN Gabe Evans 49.0% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Rutinel
(flip)
Florida 2 R+8 Neal Dunn
(retiring)		 61.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Lean R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Rogers
Florida 3 R+10 Kat Cammack 61.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Cammack
Florida 4 R+5 Aaron Bean 57.3% R Likely R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Solid R Bean
Florida 5 R+10 John Rutherford 63.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Rutherford
Florida 7 R+5 Cory Mills
(lost renomination)		 56.5% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R
Florida 8 R+8 Mike Haridopolos 62.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Solid R Haridopolos
Florida 9 R+8 Darren Soto 55.1% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup
Florida 11 R+7 Daniel Webster
(retiring)		 60.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Solid R Strada
Florida 12 R+7 Gus Bilirakis 71.0% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Bilirakis
Florida 13 R+6 Anna Paulina Luna 54.8% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup
Florida 14 R+4 Kathy Castor 57.0% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Tossup Castor
Florida 15 R+9 Laurel Lee 56.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Lee
Florida 16 R+6 Vern Buchanan
(retiring)		 59.5% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Gruters
Florida 17 R+10 Greg Steube 63.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Steube
Florida 18 R+8 Scott Franklin 65.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Franklin
Florida 21 R+7 Brian Mast 61.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Mast
Florida 22 R+4 New seat – Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Dandiya
Florida 25 R+3 Jared Moskowitz 52.4% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Moskowitz
Florida 26 R+7 Mario Díaz-Balart 70.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R
Florida 27 R+6 María Elvira Salazar 60.4% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R
Georgia 1 R+8 Buddy Carter
(retiring)		 62.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Kingston
Georgia 7 R+11 Rich McCormick 64.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R McCormick
Georgia 10 R+11 Mike Collins
(retiring)		 63.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Gaines
Georgia 12 R+7 Rick Allen 60.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Allen
Indiana 1 D+1 Frank J. Mrvan 53.4% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Solid D Likely D Mrvan
Indiana 5 R+8 Victoria Spartz 56.6% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Ford
(flip)
Iowa 1 R+4 Mariannette Miller-Meeks 50.1% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Bohannan
(flip)
Iowa 2 R+4 Ashley Hinson
(retiring)		 57.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup James
(flip)
Iowa 3 R+2 Zach Nunn 51.9% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Garriott
(flip)
Kansas 2 R+10 Derek Schmidt 57.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Schmidt
Kentucky 6 R+7 Andy Barr
(retiring)		 63.0% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Dembo
(flip)
Maine 2 R+4 Jared Golden
(retiring)		 50.3% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Maryland 1 R+8 Andy Harris 59.4% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Harris
Michigan 1 R+11 Jack Bergman 59.2% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Bergman
Michigan 3 D+4 Hillary Scholten 53.7% D Solid D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Solid D Solid D Solid D Scholten
Michigan 4 R+3 Bill Huizenga 55.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) McCann
(flip)
Michigan 7 EVEN Tom Barrett 50.3% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lawrence
(flip)
Michigan 8 R+1 Kristen McDonald Rivet 51.2% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D McDonald Rivet
Michigan 10 R+3 John James
(retiring)		 51.1% R Tossup Tilt R Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Hines
(flip)
Minnesota 1 R+6 Brad Finstad 58.6% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup
Minnesota 2 D+3 Angie Craig
(retiring)		 55.6% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Solid D Solid D Likely D Matt Little
Minnesota 8 R+7 Pete Stauber 58.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Likely R Stauber
Missouri 2 R+4 Ann Wagner 54.5% R Likely R Solid R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Wellman
(flip)
Montana 1 R+5 Ryan Zinke
(retiring)		 52.3% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup
Nebraska 1 R+6 Mike Flood 60.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R
Nebraska 2 D+3 Don Bacon
(retiring)		 50.9% R Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Safe D (flip) Safe D (flip) Safe D (flip) Likely D (flip) Solid D (flip) Likely D (flip) Powell
(flip)
Nevada 1 D+2 Dina Titus 52.0% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Titus
Nevada 2 R+7 Mark Amodei
(retiring)		 55.0% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Tossup
Nevada 3 D+1 Susie Lee 51.4% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lee
Nevada 4 D+2 Steven Horsford 52.7% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Solid D Likely D Horsford
New Hampshire 1 D+2 Chris Pappas
(retiring)		 54.0% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Solid D Likely D Shaheen
New Hampshire 2 D+2 Maggie Goodlander 53.0% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Solid D Solid D Goodlander
New Jersey 2 R+5 Jeff Van Drew 58.0% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tossup
New Jersey 7 EVEN Thomas Kean Jr. 51.8% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Bennett
(flip)
New Jersey 9 D+2 Nellie Pou 50.8% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D Pou
New Mexico 2 EVEN Gabe Vasquez 52.1% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Vasquez
New York 1 R+4 Nick LaLota 55.2% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R
New York 2 R+6 Andrew Garbarino 59.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Lean R
New York 3 EVEN Tom Suozzi 51.8% D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Solid D Likely D Suozzi
New York 4 D+2 Laura Gillen 51.1% D Likely D Tilt D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D Gillen
New York 17 D+1 Mike Lawler 52.2% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Tossup
New York 19 D+1 Josh Riley 51.1% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Solid D Solid D Riley
New York 21 R+10 Elise Stefanik
(retiring)		 62.1% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R
New York 23 R+10 Nick Langworthy 65.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Langworthy
North Carolina 1 R+5 Don Davis 49.5% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
North Carolina 3 R+6 Greg Murphy 77.4% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Tossup
North Carolina 5 R+9 Virginia Foxx 59.5% R Likely R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R
North Carolina 6 R+9 Addison McDowell 69.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R
North Carolina 7 R+7 David Rouzer 58.6% R Likely R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
North Carolina 8 R+10 Mark Harris 59.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R
North Carolina 9 R+8 Richard Hudson 56.3% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Lean R
North Carolina 10 R+9 Pat Harrigan 57.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R
North Carolina 11 R+5 Chuck Edwards
(withdrew)		 56.8% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Ager
(flip)
North Carolina 13 R+8 Brad Knott 58.6% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
North Carolina 14 R+8 Tim Moore 58.1% R Likely R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R
Ohio 1 R+1 Greg Landsman 54.6% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Landsman
Ohio 7 R+5 Max Miller 51.1% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Poindexter
(flip)
Ohio 8 R+8 Warren Davidson 62.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Davidson
Ohio 9 R+5 Marcy Kaptur 48.3% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Kaptur
Ohio 10 R+4 Mike Turner 57.6% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup Likely R Lean R Lean R
Ohio 13 D+2 Emilia Sykes 51.1% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D Sykes
Ohio 15 R+5 Mike Carey 56.5% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Leonard
(flip)
Oklahoma 1 R+11 Kevin Hern
(retiring)		 60.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Tedford
Oklahoma 5 R+9 Stephanie Bice 60.7% R Solid R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Pennsylvania 1 D+1 Brian Fitzpatrick 56.4% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Harvie
(flip)
Pennsylvania 7 R+1 Ryan Mackenzie 50.5% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Brooks
(flip)
Pennsylvania 8 R+4 Rob Bresnahan 50.8% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Cognetti
(flip)
Pennsylvania 10 R+3 Scott Perry 50.6% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Tossup Stelson
(flip)
Pennsylvania 11 R+11 Lloyd Smucker 62.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Smucker
Pennsylvania 16 R+11 Mike Kelly 63.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Kelly
South Carolina 1 R+6 Nancy Mace
(retiring)		 58.3% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup
South Carolina 2 R+7 Joe Wilson 59.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R
South Carolina 5 R+11 Ralph Norman
(retiring)		 59.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Climer
Tennessee 5 R+10 Andy Ogles
(lost renomination)		 56.8% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Solid R Solid R Likely R Hatcher
Tennessee 7 R+11 Matt Van Epps 59.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R
Tennessee 9 R+9 Steve Cohen
(retiring)		 71.3% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Texas 2 R+11 Dan Crenshaw
(lost renomination)		 65.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Solid R Solid R
Texas 5 R+10 Lance Gooden 64.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Gooden
Texas 9 R+9 New seat – Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Gutierrez
(flip)
Texas 10 R+10 Michael McCaul
(retiring)		 63.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Gober
Texas 15 R+7 Monica De La Cruz 57.1% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Pulido
(flip)
Texas 17 R+10 Pete Sessions 66.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Sessions
Texas 21 R+10 Chip Roy
(retiring)		 61.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Teixeira
Texas 22 R+11 Troy Nehls
(retiring)		 62.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R
Texas 23 R+7 Vacant[c] 62.3% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Padilla Stout
Texas 24 R+8 Beth Van Duyne 60.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Van Duyne
Texas 27 R+10 Michael Cloud 66.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Cloud
Texas 28 R+3 Henry Cuellar 52.8% D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Cuellar
Texas 31 R+11 John Carter 64.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Carter
Texas 32 R+8 New seat – Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Yarbrough
(flip)
Texas 34 R+3 Vicente Gonzalez 51.3% D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Gonzalez
Texas 35 R+4 New seat – Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean R (flip) Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Garcia
(flip)
Texas 38 R+10 Wesley Hunt
(retiring)		 62.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Bonck
Virginia 1 R+3 Rob Wittman 56.4% R Tossup Tilt R Lean D (flip) Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup
Virginia 2 EVEN Jen Kiggans 50.8% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Luria
(flip)
Virginia 5 R+6 John McGuire 57.5% R Lean R Lean R Lean D (flip) Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R
Virginia 7 D+2 Eugene Vindman 51.3% D Likely D Solid D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D Vindman
Washington 3 R+2 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 51.7% D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Gluesenkamp Perez
Washington 4 R+10 Dan Newhouse
(retiring)		 52.02% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R
Washington 5 R+5 Michael Baumgartner 60.6% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Wisconsin 1 R+2 Bryan Steil 54.1% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Berman
(flip)
Wisconsin 3 R+3 Derrick Van Orden 51.4% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Cooke
(flip)
Wisconsin 6 R+8 Glenn Grothman 61.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Grothman
Wisconsin 7 R+11 Tom Tiffany
(retiring)		 63.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Alfonso
Wisconsin 8 R+8 Tony Wied 57.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Wied
Wyoming at-large R+23 Harriet Hageman
(retiring)		 70.6% R Solid R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Gray
Overall D – 222
R – 195
18 tossups		 D – 224
R – 198
13 tossups		 D – 239
R – 196		 D – 230
R – 190
15 tossups		 D – 225
R – 197
13 tossups		 D – 223
R – 203
9 tossups		 D – 230
R – 196
9 tossups		 D – 223
R – 195
17 tossups		 D – 230
R – 196
9 tossups		 D – 226
R – 189
20 tossups		 D – 237
R – 147
51 undecided

Party listings

[edit]

The two parties' campaign committees (the National Republican Congressional Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) published their own lists of targeted seats.

Republican-held seats

[edit]

On April 8, 2025, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.[13] On December 10, 2025, the list was revised adding four districts (CA-48, FL-15, NC-3, and NC-11) and removing two (CA-40 and CA-41).[14] It was revised again on February 10, 2026, where five more districts (CO-5, MN-1, MT-1, SC-1, and VA-5) were added.[15] A subsequent revision on July 9, 2026, added one district (FL-16) and removed one district (FL-15).[16] Another subsequent revision occurred on August 5, 2026, where eleven more districts (AR-2, CO-3, CO-4, FL-12, IN-5, NC-9, NE-1, NV-2, NY-1, NY-21, and TX-23) were added to the list.[17] One last revision occurred on October 2, 2026, where seven more districts (KS-2, MI-1, NC-13, NJ-2, OK-5, VA-6, and WA-5) were added.[18]

  1. Alaska 1: Nick Begich III
  2. Arizona 1: Open seat
  3. Arizona 2: Eli Crane
  4. Arizona 6: Juan Ciscomani
  5. Arkansas 2: French Hill
  6. California 22: David Valadao
  7. California 48: Open seat
  8. Colorado 3: Jeff Hurd
  9. Colorado 4: Lauren Boebert
  10. Colorado 5: Jeff Crank
  11. Colorado 8: Gabe Evans
  12. Florida 7: Open seat
  13. Florida 12: Gus Bilirakis
  14. Florida 13: Anna Paulina Luna
  15. Florida 16: Open seat
  16. Florida 27: Maria Elvira Salazar
  17. Indiana 5: Victoria Spartz
  18. Iowa 1: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
  19. Iowa 2: Open seat
  20. Iowa 3: Zach Nunn
  21. Kansas 2: Derek Schmidt
  22. Kentucky 6: Open seat
  23. Michigan 1: Jack Bergman
  24. Michigan 4: Bill Huizenga
  25. Michigan 7: Tom Barrett
  26. Michigan 10: Open seat
  27. Minnesota 1: Brad Finstad
  28. Missouri 2: Ann Wagner
  29. Montana 1: Open seat
  30. Nebraska 1: Mike Flood
  31. Nebraska 2: Open seat
  32. Nevada 2: Open seat
  33. New Jersey 2: Jeff Van Drew
  34. New Jersey 7: Thomas Kean Jr.
  35. New York 1: Nick LaLota
  36. New York 17: Mike Lawler
  37. New York 21: Open seat
  38. North Carolina 3: Greg Murphy
  39. North Carolina 9: Richard Hudson
  40. North Carolina 11: Open seat
  41. North Carolina 13: Brad Knott
  42. Ohio 7: Max Miller
  43. Ohio 10: Mike Turner
  44. Ohio 15: Mike Carey
  45. Oklahoma 5: Stephanie Bice
  46. Pennsylvania 1: Brian Fitzpatrick
  47. Pennsylvania 7: Ryan Mackenzie
  48. Pennsylvania 8: Rob Bresnahan
  49. Pennsylvania 10: Scott Perry
  50. South Carolina 1: Open seat
  51. Tennessee 5: Open seat
  52. Texas 15: Monica De La Cruz
  53. Texas 23: Open seat
  54. Virginia 1: Rob Wittman
  55. Virginia 2: Jen Kiggans
  56. Virginia 5: John McGuire
  57. Virginia 6: Ben Cline
  58. Washington 5: Michael Baumgartner
  59. Wisconsin 1: Bryan Steil
  60. Wisconsin 3: Derrick Van Orden

Democratic-held seats

[edit]

On March 17, 2025, the National Republican Congressional Committee released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.[19] On September 18, 2025, this list was revised adding three districts (TX-9, TX-32, and TX-35).[20] It was revised again on July 20, 2026, where eight more districts (AL-2, FL-14, FL-22, FL-25, LA-6, MO-5, OH-1, and TN-9) were added and one district (FL-23) was removed.[21] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:

  1. Alabama 2: Shomari Figures
  2. California 9: Josh Harder
  3. California 13: Adam Gray
  4. California 27: George Whitesides
  5. California 45: Derek Tran
  6. California 47: Dave Min
  7. Florida 9: Darren Soto
  8. Florida 14: Kathy Castor
  9. Florida 22: New seat
  10. Florida 25: Jared Moskowitz
  11. Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
  12. Louisiana 6: Open seat
  13. Maine 2: Open seat
  14. Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet
  15. Missouri 5: Emanuel Cleaver
  16. North Carolina 1: Don Davis
  17. New Hampshire 1: Open seat
  18. New Jersey 9: Nellie Pou
  19. New Mexico 2: Gabe Vasquez
  20. Nevada 1: Dina Titus
  21. Nevada 3: Susie Lee
  22. Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
  23. New York 3: Tom Suozzi
  24. New York 4: Laura Gillen
  25. New York 19: Josh Riley
  26. Ohio 1: Greg Landsman
  27. Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
  28. Ohio 13: Emilia Sykes
  29. Tennessee 9: Open seat
  30. Texas 9: New seat
  31. Texas 28: Henry Cuellar
  32. Texas 32: New seat
  33. Texas 34: Vicente Gonzalez
  34. Texas 35: New seat
  35. Virginia 7: Eugene Vindman
  36. Washington 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Notes

[edit]
  1. ↑ This forecast uses the terms "Likely" and "Very Likely" the same way the other forecasts use the terms "Lean" and "Likely". To avoid confusion, and for the purposes of equivalency, the terms "Likely" and "Very Likely" will be changed to "Lean" and "Likely" for the purposes of this page. Also, "tossup" is labeled "uncertain", but for the purposes of this page, it will be labelled "tossup".
  2. ↑ Kiley was elected as a Republican, and switched to being an independent in March 2026.
  3. ↑ Tony Gonzales resigned from his seat on April 14, 2026.

References

[edit]
  1. ↑ "2026 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List". The Cook Political Report. July 29, 2026. Retrieved July 29, 2026.
  2. ↑ "Election 2024: House results". CNN. Retrieved March 7, 2025.
  3. ↑ "2026 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 30, 2026.
  4. ↑ "2026 House Ratings". Inside elections. Retrieved December 6, 2025.
  5. ↑ "2026 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
  6. ↑ "US Midterms 2026". The Economist. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
  7. ↑ "Split Ticket 2026 Midterms Model". www.theargumentmag.com. The Argument. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
  8. ↑ "2026 House Ratings". votes.decisiondeskhq.com. Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
  9. ↑ "2026 Congressional Forecast". FiftyPlusOne. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
  10. ↑ Numa, Rémy (October 13, 2026). "Fox News Power Rankings: As the House falls, the Senate stays in play". Fox News. Fox News. Retrieved October 13, 2026.
  11. ↑ Silver, Nate (August 18, 2026). "FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast". www.natesilver.net. Retrieved November 2, 2026.
  12. ↑ "Battle for the House 2026". November 2, 2026.
  13. ↑ rice@dccc.org (April 8, 2025). "DCCC Announces 2026 Districts in Play". DCCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  14. ↑ iwata@dccc.org (December 10, 2025). "DCCC Expands the Battlefield in 2026 with New Offensive Targets". DCCC. Retrieved December 11, 2025.
  15. ↑ iwata@dccc.org (February 10, 2026). "DCCC Announces Second Expansion of the House Battlefield for 2026 Cycle with 5 New Offensive Targets". DCCC. Retrieved February 10, 2026.
  16. ↑ rbaron@dccc.org (July 9, 2026). "DCCC Adds Florida's 16th Congressional District To Districts In Play As Democrats Expand Battlefield for 2026 Midterms". DCCC. Retrieved July 22, 2026.
  17. ↑ jalango@dccc.org (August 5, 2026). "90 Days Out from the Midterms, DCCC Announces Latest Expansion of the House Battlefield for 2026 Cycle with 12 New Offensive Targets". DCCC. Retrieved August 5, 2026.
  18. ↑ jalango@dccc.org (October 2, 2026). "Just Over 30 Days from the Midterms, DCCC Announces Eight New Districts to Our Offensive House Battlefield". DCCC. Retrieved October 3, 2026.
  19. ↑ Marinella, Mike (March 17, 2025). "NRCC Targets 26 Offensive Seats to Expand House Majority". NRCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  20. ↑ Marinella, Mike (September 18, 2025). "NRCC Expands Target List with Three Texas Opportunities to Grow GOP Majority". NRCC. Retrieved May 31, 2026.
  21. ↑ Marinella, Mike (July 20, 2026). "NRCC Expands Offensive Target List to Grow GOP Majority". NRCC. Retrieved July 22, 2026.
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