Jump to content

2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election

Add links
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election
← 2022
November 3, 2026
2030 →
 
Nominee Marsha Blackburn Jerri Green David Hatley
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Incumbent Governor

Bill Lee
Republican


The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Tennessee. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2026.[1] Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn and Democratic City Councilor Jerri Green are the nominees for their respective parties. Republican incumbent Bill Lee is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term.

Democrats have not won a statewide election in Tennessee since Phil Bredesen was re-elected governor in 2006. Either major party nominee would be the first female governor of Tennessee.[2]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Marsha Blackburn
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
John Rose
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Declined to endorse
Executive branch officials
Statewide officials

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Marsha
Blackburn		 John
Rose		 Monty
Fritts		 Other/
Undecided[c]		 Margin
Race to the WH[37] through August 1, 2026 August 5, 2026 39.1% 28.3% 22.1% 10.5% Blackburn +10.8%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Marsha
Blackburn		 John
Rose		 Monty
Fritts		 Other Undecided
Wick[38][e][A] July 29 – August 1, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 32% 17% – –
45% 28% 17% – 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[39][B] July 26–28, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 25% 22% – 11%
OnMessage Inc.[40] July 23–25, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 35% 31% 26% – 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[41][B] June 28–30, 2026 – (LV) – 51% 20% 12% – 17%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[42][C] June 28–30, 2026 600 (LV) – 44% 29% 13% – 14%
Targoz Market Research[43][D] April 20–27, 2026 529 (LV) ± 4.2% 63% 10% 5% – 22%
VictoryPhones[44][E] March 18–24, 2026 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 56% 14% 11% – 20%
Cygnal (R)[45] March 16–17, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 58% 7% – 5% 30%
VictoryPhones[46][E] February 5–8, 2026 – (LV) – 61% 8% 5% – 26%
Targoz Market Research[47][D] January 11–18, 2026 559 (LV) – 56% 9% 7% 1%[f] 27%
Targoz Market Research[48][D] October 26–29, 2025 545 (RV) – 58% 9% 5% – 29%
Quantus Insights (R)[49] August 5–7, 2025 – – 35% 6% – 22%[g] 37%
Targoz Market Research[50][D] July 27 – August 1, 2025 623 (RV) ± 2.8% 66% 14% – – 19%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[51][52][B] January 13–16, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 71% 13% – – 16%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Blackburn
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Rose
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Fritts
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
Results by precinct:
  Blackburn
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Rose
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Fritts
  •   30–40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  Tie
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50%
  No Votes
Republican primary results[53]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marsha Blackburn 311,392 43.6
Republican John Rose 235,561 32.9
Republican Monty Fritts 168,004 23.5
Write-in 1 0.0
Total votes 714,958 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jerri Green
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Carnita
Atwater		 Tim
Cyr		 Jerri
Green		 Adam
Kurtz		 Kevin Lee
McCants		 Undecided
Targoz Market Research[43][D] April 20–27, 2026 400 (LV) ± 4.8% 8% 3% 14% 2% 11% 62%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Green
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Atwater
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[53]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jerri Green 244,277 69.0
Democratic Carnita Atwater 63,289 17.9
Democratic Kevin Lee McCants 18,972 5.4
Democratic Tim Cyr 14,799 4.2
Democratic Adam Kurtz 12,465 3.5
Total votes 353,802 100.0

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[66] Solid R October 27, 2026
Decision Desk HQ[67] Likely R October 28, 2026
Fox News[68] Solid R October 27, 2026
Inside Elections[69] Likely R October 29, 2026
NBC News[70] Solid R October 28, 2026
RealClearPolitics[71] Solid R October 28, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] Safe R October 27, 2026
Silver Bulletin[73] Solid R October 28, 2026

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Executive branch officials
Jerri Green (D)
Organizations
David Hatley (I)
State legislators
Lauren Pinkston (I)
Statewide officials
Political parties

Debates/Forums

[edit]
2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election forum
No. Date Host Link Republican Democratic Independent Independent
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Marsha Blackburn Jerri Green David Hatley Lauren Pinkston
1[80] October 27, 2026 Tennessee Press Association
Middle Tennessee State University		 YouTube A P P P

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 Marsha
Blackburn (R)		 Jerri
Green (D)		 David
Hatley (I)		 Other Undecided
GOTV Polling[81][h] October 25–26, 2026 1,196 ± 2.8% 35% 30% 26% 3%[i] 6%
Spry Strategies (R)[82] October 10–15, 2026 635 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 32% 12% 2%[j] 10%
TargetSmart[83][F] September 9–12, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 36% 10% 2%[k] 7%
Targoz Market Research[85][D] August 15–26, 2026 1,149 (RV) ± 2.77% 46% 33% – 8%[l] 14%
Targoz Market Research[85][D] August 15–26, 2026 601 (LV) ± 2.77% 55% 34% – 7% 4%
Targoz Market Research[43][D] April 20–27, 2026 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 51% 27% – 22%
Quantus Insights (R)[49] August 5–7, 2025 600 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 28% – 7%[m] 17%
Hypothetical polling
John Rose vs. Jerri Green
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[d]		 Margin
of error		 John
Rose (R)		 Jerri
Green (D)		 Other Undecided
Quantus Insights (R)[49] August 5–7, 2025 600 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 27% 8%[n] 23%

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ↑
  2. ↑
  3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ↑ Password to access poll is "govols"
  6. ↑ "Would not vote" with 1%
  7. ↑ "Someone else" with 14%; Tim Burchett with 5%; Cameron Sexton with 3%
  8. ↑ Sponsored by Hatley
  9. ↑ Lauren Pinkston 3%
  10. ↑ Lauren Pinkston (I) and "Someone else" with 1%
  11. ↑ Lauren Pinkston (I) with 2%
  12. ↑ "An independent candidate" with 8%
  13. ↑ "Wouldn't Vote for Either" with 7%
  14. ↑ "Wouldn't Vote for Either" with 8%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by Americans for Prosperity
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Blackburn's campaign
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Rose's campaign
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Tennesseans for Student Success
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Progress Fund, which supports Green[84]

References

[edit]
  1. ↑ "2026 State Primary Election Dates". NCSL. May 9, 2025. Retrieved August 5, 2025.
  2. ↑ Jarrett, Kim (August 6, 2026). "Tennessee poised to have its first female governor". The Mountaineer. Retrieved August 13, 2026.
  3. ↑ Taylor, Sarah Grace (August 6, 2025). "Marsha Blackburn announces run for Governor of Tennessee". Nashville Banner. Retrieved August 6, 2025.
  4. ↑ Grace Taylor, Sarah (September 8, 2025). "State Rep. Monty Fritts announces 2026 governor run". Nashville Banner. Retrieved September 8, 2025.
  5. ↑ Jones, Vivian (March 20, 2025). "US Rep. John Rose launches 2026 bid for Tennessee governor". The Tennessean. Retrieved March 20, 2025.
  6. ↑ Solender, Andrew (December 12, 2024). "GOP Rep. Ciscomani passes on run for Arizona governor". Axios. Retrieved December 12, 2024. Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) will not run for governor in 2026, according to a source familiar with his thinking.
  7. ↑ Feinberg, Allie (February 11, 2025). "U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty will seek reelection, quashing talk of a run for Tennessee governor". Knoxville News Sentinel. Gannett. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
  8. 1 2 Teague, Slater (July 23, 2026). "Sen. Bill Hagerty endorses Marsha Blackburn for Tennessee governor". WJHL11. Retrieved July 28, 2026.
  9. ↑ Sher, Andy (August 28, 2025). "Hargett opts out of joining Tennessee governor's race". State Affairs. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  10. ↑ Smith, Ben (July 16, 2025). "Race for the next Tenn. governor begins to take form". Johnson City Press. Six Rivers Media. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
  11. ↑ Lubold, Gordon; Kube, Courtney; Bowman, Bridget; Tsirkin, Julie (July 29, 2025). "Pete Hegseth has discussed running for political office in Tennessee, sources say". NBC News. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
  12. 1 2 Feinberg, Allie (January 14, 2025). "Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs endorses Sen. Marsha Blackburn for governor". Knoxville News Sentinel. Retrieved January 14, 2025. Jacobs spent months laying the groundwork for a run for governor in 2026, but endorsed Blackburn the night of Jan. 14
  13. ↑ "Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs to be campaign treasurer in Blackburn's run for governor". Wate.com. August 7, 2025. Retrieved August 6, 2026.
  14. ↑ Schelzig, Erik (December 6, 2024). "Gubernatorial rumblings: McWhorter decides against '26 bid, Jacobs launches fundraising arm". State Affairs. Retrieved December 9, 2024.
  15. ↑ Sauter, Danica (March 8, 2026). "Barry 'Butch' Wilmore opts out of TN governor bid, says candidacy was never official". WVLT-TV. Retrieved March 10, 2026.
  16. ↑ Morgan-Rumsey, Camruinn (August 18, 2025). "Rep. Tim Burchett endorses Blackburn for Tennessee governor". WVLT-TV. Retrieved August 18, 2025.
  17. ↑ Housler, Kaitlin (September 16, 2025). "Former TN Congressman Jimmy Duncan Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Governor". The Tennessee Star. Retrieved September 24, 2025.
  18. ↑ Housler, Kaitlin (March 6, 2025). "Tennessee U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Governor". The Tennessee Star. Retrieved March 9, 2025.
  19. ↑ "Congressman Matt Van Epps endorses Marsha Blackburn for Governor". WBBJTV. June 3, 2026. Retrieved July 16, 2026.
  20. 1 2 3 4 Schmidt, Zachery (August 6, 2025). "Tennessee Republicans Back Marsha Blackburn for Tennessee Governor". The Tennessee Star. Retrieved August 6, 2025.
  21. ↑ Rau, Nate (August 7, 2025). "Blackburn reshapes 2026 race for Tennessee governor". Axios. Retrieved August 7, 2025.
  22. ↑ Harbison, Glenn (August 19, 2025). "Blackburn brings campaign to Polk County". The News Observer. Retrieved July 28, 2026.
  23. ↑ Walley, Page (July 11, 2026). "Blackburn is best equipped to lead Tennessee to brighter future | Opinion". Jackson Sun. Retrieved July 28, 2026.
  24. ↑ Housler, Kaitlin (August 6, 2025). "U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn Launches Bid for Tennessee Governor". Tennessee Star. Retrieved November 14, 2025.
  25. 1 2 3 Masters, Matt (August 5, 2026). "Endorsements Roll in Ahead of Election Day". Nashville Scene. Retrieved August 6, 2026.
  26. ↑ "AFP Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Governor". Tristardaily. February 26, 2026. Retrieved May 19, 2026.
  27. ↑ Mitola, Will (September 4, 2025). "ICYMI: CfG PAC Endorses Sen. Blackburn in TN-GOV Race". Club for Growth PAC. Retrieved September 5, 2025.
  28. ↑ Housler, Kaitlin (July 14, 2026). "NRA Backing Blackburn for Tennessee Governor". Tennessee Star. Retrieved July 15, 2026.
  29. ↑ Wigginton, Tim (May 29, 2026). "Tennessee Chamber of Commerce & Industry Endorses Senator Marsha Blackburn For Governor". The Blue Ridge Times. Retrieved July 28, 2026.
  30. ↑ Housler, Kaitlin (May 25, 2026). "Tennessee Professional Fire Fighters Backing Blackburn for Governor". The Tennessee Star. Retrieved July 28, 2026.
  31. ↑ Housler, Kaitlin (December 8, 2025). "Turning Point Action Backs Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee 2026 Governor's Race". Tennessee Star. Retrieved December 9, 2025.
  32. ↑ Stockard, Sam (July 28, 2026). "Candidates bank on endorsements as primary draws near". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved July 28, 2026.
  33. ↑ "Former State Senator Mae Beavers Endorses John Rose for Tennessee Governor". TriStar Daily. May 26, 2026. Retrieved July 15, 2026.
  34. ↑ "John Rose receives endorsements to be next governor". Main Street Media TN. July 15, 2026. Retrieved July 16, 2026.
  35. ↑ Taylor, Sarah Grace (June 8, 2026). "Trump says he won't endorse in Tennessee's governor's race despite relationships with Blackburn, Rose". News Channel 5 Nashville (WTVF). Retrieved June 14, 2026.
  36. ↑ Sauter, Danica (August 13, 2025). "Gov. Lee says he won't endorse anyone following Sen. Marsha Blackburn's gubernatorial announcement". WEMU. Retrieved August 13, 2025.
  37. ↑ "Latest Polling for Governor Races – 2025-2026". Race to the WH. Retrieved July 30, 2026.
  38. ↑ "TN Elections Poll — August 2026". Wick. August 5, 2026. Retrieved August 6, 2026.
  39. ↑ Taylor, Sarah Grace (August 1, 2026). "Blackburn Shares Unreleased Poll to Combat Claims of Rose's Momentum in Tennessee Governor's Race". Nashville Banner. Retrieved August 6, 2026.
  40. ↑ Taylor, Sarah Grace (July 30, 2026). "Dueling Polls Show Rose Closing in on Blackburn in Tennessee Governor's Race; Fritts Gaining Traction". Nashville Banner. Retrieved July 30, 2026.
  41. ↑ Schelzig, Erik (July 13, 2026). "Blackburn poll indicates her lead is double the margin of Rose survey". State Affairs. Retrieved July 13, 2026.
  42. ↑ Schelzig, Erik (July 7, 2026). "Internal Rose poll suggests late-campaign gain on Blackburn". State Affairs. Retrieved July 7, 2026.
  43. 1 2 3 "May 2026". TennSight. Retrieved May 10, 2026.
  44. ↑ "Tennessee Statewide Republican Primary Voter Survey". VictoryPhones. March 26, 2026. Retrieved March 26, 2026.
  45. ↑ Buchanan, Brent (March 23, 2026). "Coronation in Progress: Blackburn Dominates...and Other Issues" (PDF). Cygnal. Retrieved March 23, 2026.
  46. ↑ "Tennessee Statewide General Election Survey" (PDF). Tennesseans for Student Success. February 17, 2026. Retrieved February 20, 2026.
  47. ↑ "January 2026 Beacon Poll". TennSight. February 2, 2026. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
  48. ↑ "November 2025 Beacon Poll Results". Beacon Center of Tennessee. November 5, 2025. Retrieved November 6, 2025.
  49. 1 2 3 "Quantus Insights – Tennessee August 2025". Quantus Insights. August 8, 2025. Retrieved August 13, 2025.
  50. ↑ "First Statewide Poll Shows Marsha Blackburn as Clear Frontrunner Over John Rose in GOP Primary for Governor". Beacon Center of Tennessee. August 7, 2025. Retrieved August 8, 2025.
  51. ↑ Caputo, Marc (January 23, 2025). "Sen. Blackburn would be 'clear frontrunner' for Tenn. governor, Trump pollster finds". Axios. Retrieved June 22, 2025.
  52. ↑ Caputo, Marc [@MarcACaputo] (January 23, 2025). "Poll memo" (Tweet) – via X (formerly Twitter).
  53. 1 2 "Tennessee Governor Primary Election Results". The New York Times. August 6, 2026. Retrieved August 8, 2026.
  54. ↑ Finton, Lucas (July 14, 2025). "Memphis City Councilwoman Jerri Green officially throws hat into Tennessee governor's race". The Commercial Appeal. Retrieved July 17, 2025.
  55. 1 2 Cornell, Josh (September 16, 2025). "The Civic Scoop: Cornell on the ongoing Tennessee governor's race". The Highland Echo. Retrieved September 16, 2025. There are also four democrats running for this position: Jerri Green, Carnita Atwater, Adam Kurtz, and Tim Cyr...
  56. ↑ Weiner, Natalie (July 8, 2025). "Issue #106: Meet the Pedal Steel Player Running for Governor of Tennessee". Don't Rock The Inbox. Retrieved August 13, 2025.
  57. ↑ "Meet Kevin Lee". Retrieved June 12, 2026.
  58. ↑ Solender, Andrew [@andrewsolender] (November 27, 2024). "Here's what he told me: 'I'm flattered that I'm considered a gubernatorial candidate. But in Tennessee, the Democrat nominee has a better chance of winning than I have of being Super Bowl MVP, but not much better.'" (Tweet). Retrieved November 28, 2024 – via X (formerly Twitter).
  59. ↑ Campbell, Heidi (July 17, 2026). "Why Jerri Green is the Common Sense Voice We Need". Main Street Media.
  60. ↑ Jones, Vivian (November 24, 2025). "An early look at how Tennessee's 2026 governor's race is shaping up". The Tennessean. Retrieved November 25, 2025.
  61. ↑ "Indivisible Tennessee Endorsements". Blue Voter Guide. Retrieved July 16, 2026.
  62. ↑ "2026 Election Information". Planned Parenthood Action. April 15, 2026. Retrieved July 16, 2026.
  63. ↑ Rafferty, Colin (March 10, 2026). "Elizabethton-born entrepreneur announces candidacy for governor". WJHL. Retrieved March 11, 2026.
  64. ↑ Rayner, Ruby (November 21, 2025). "Lauren Pinkston, an independent running for Tennessee governor, wants to give people a third option". Chattanooga Times Free Press. Retrieved November 24, 2025.
  65. ↑ "40-Year East Tennessee Educator Dr. Vick Announces Independent Run for Governor". Claiborne Progress. January 27, 2026. Retrieved March 2, 2026.
  66. ↑ "2026 CPR Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2026.
  67. ↑ "2026 Governor Forecast". Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved October 28, 2026.
  68. ↑ Numa, Rémy (October 27, 2026). "Fox News Power Rankings: As Iran looms large, can the GOP keep the faithful?". Fox News. Retrieved October 28, 2026.
  69. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved October 29, 2026.
  70. ↑ "The race for Congress: 2026 midterms". NBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2026.
  71. ↑ "2026 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2026.
  72. ↑ "2026 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2026.
  73. ↑ Silver, Nate; McKown-Dawson, Eli (October 28, 2026) [August 11, 2026]. "FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast". Silver Bulletin. Retrieved October 28, 2026 – via Substack.
  74. ↑ Fiscus, Kirsten (August 7, 2026). "Trump backs Blackburn despite no endorsement before primaries". The Tennessean. Retrieved October 6, 2026.
  75. ↑ "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Announces New Round of Statewide Endorsements, Backing 40 Statewide Candidates in 15 States". Moms Demand Action. Retrieved September 15, 2026.
  76. ↑ "Bowling breaks Republican ranks by backing independent Hatley for governor". The Tennessee Journal. Retrieved October 5, 2026.
  77. 1 2 "Former GOP governors endorse independent for TN governor". The Tennessean. Retrieved June 24, 2026.
  78. ↑ "CANDIDATES". Forward Party. Retrieved April 25, 2026.
  79. ↑ Evans, Jordan Willow (August 26, 2026). "Reform Party Makes Candidate Endorsements in Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Montana". Independent Political Report. Retrieved August 26, 2026.
  80. ↑ "Watch live as candidates for Tennessee governor debate". The Tennesseean. October 27, 2026. Retrieved October 27, 2026.
  81. ↑ "GOTV Polling: Blackburn continues to drop, while Independent Candidate David Hatley surges at 26.47% in Tennessee Governor's Race, Within Single Digits of the Lead". GOTV Polling. October 27, 2026. Retrieved October 28, 2026.
  82. ↑ "Tennessee Statewide Survey — October 2026". October 19, 2026. Retrieved October 20, 2026.
  83. ↑ "Tennessee Statewide Baseline Frequencies" (PDF). TargetSmart. Retrieved September 18, 2026.
  84. ↑ "The Progress Fund - PAC Profile, 2026". Who Funds Tennessee. Retrieved September 18, 2026.
  85. 1 2 "Beacon Poll of Tennessee Registered Voters Aug. 15 to 26, 2026 MOE +/- 2.77%" (PDF). TennSight. August 28, 2026. Retrieved September 3, 2026.
[edit]
Official campaign websites
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2026_Tennessee_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1383216377"