2026 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota
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November 3, 2026
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| Elections in South Dakota |
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The 2026 United States House of Representatives election in South Dakota is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of South Dakota from its at-large congressional district. The election will coincide with other elections held on the same date. The primary elections will be held on June 2, 2026, and in races where no candidate receives at least 35% in a primary, runoff elections took place on July 28.[1]
Incumbent Republican representative Dusty Johnson was re-elected with 72.0% of the vote in 2024.[2]
Primary elections were held on June 2, 2026. Jackley received 79.2% of the vote against minimal opposition and Gronli ran unopposed for their respective party's nominations. Republicans have not lost a Congressional election in South Dakota since 2008.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Marty Jackley, South Dakota Attorney General (2009–2019, 2023–present) and candidate for governor in 2018[3][4]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- James Bialota Jr., small business owner and real estate investor[5]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Casey Crabtree, state senator from the 8th district (2020–present) and former Majority Leader of the South Dakota Senate (endorsed Jackley)[6]
Declined
[edit]- Dusty Johnson, incumbent U.S. representative (ran for governor)[7]
Endorsements
[edit]James Bialota
- State legislators
- Aaron Aylward, state representative from the 6th district (2021–present)[8]
- Phil Jensen, state representative from the 33rd district (2009–2013, 2021–present) and former state senator from the 33rd district (2013–2021)[9]
Marty Jackley
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[10]
- State legislators
- Casey Crabtree, state senator from the 8th district (2020–present) and former candidate for this seat[11]
- Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 13, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Casey Crabtree (R) | $254,650 | $183,634 | $71,016 |
| Marty Jackley (R) | $1,331,302 | $264,431 | $1,066,870 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[13] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
James Bialota |
Marty Jackley |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[14][A] | April 7–11, 2026 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 12% | 68% | 20% |
| Emerson College[15][B] | March 7–9, 2026 | 415 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 7% | 51% | 41% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Casey Crabtree |
Marty Jackley |
Tony Venhuizen |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guidant Polling & Strategy (R)[16] | June 17–19, 2025 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 5% | 48% | 5% | 42% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
James Bialota |
Casey Crabtree |
Marty Jackley |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[17][A] | October 16–20, 2025 | 502 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 2% | 5% | 57% | 36% |
Results
[edit]
Jackley
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marty Jackley | 103,074 | 79.2 | |
| Republican | James Bialota Jr. | 27,100 | 20.8 | |
| Total votes | 130,174 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Nikki Gronli, former South Dakota state director for USDA Rural Development (2022–2025) and former vice chair of the South Dakota Democratic Party[18]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Billy Mawhiney, nonprofit executive[19]
Endorsements
[edit]Nikki Gronli
- Executive branch officials
- Joe Biden, 46th president of the United States (2021-2025)[20][n 1]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 13, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Nikki Gronli (D) | $213,223 | $110,642 | $102,581 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[13] | |||
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Filed paperwork
[edit]- Jack Pittman[21]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ[22] | Safe R | July 14, 2026 |
| The Cook Political Report[23] | Solid R | July 10, 2025 |
| Inside Elections[24] | Solid R | July 10, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Safe R | July 10, 2025 |
Post-primary endorsements
[edit]Nikki Gronli (D)
Marty Jackley (R)
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marty Jackley (R) | $1,736,314 | $551,850 | $1,184,464 |
| Nicole Gronli (D) | $387,208 | $294,065 | $93,143 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[30] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marty Jackley (R) |
Nikki Gronli (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[31][C] | October 12–14, 2026 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 60% | 32% | 9% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)[32][D] | August 26–30, 2026 | (LV) | – | 47% | 43% | 10% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marty Jackley | ||||
| Democratic | Nicole Gronli | ||||
| Independent | Jack Pittman | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
Notes
[edit]- ↑ Endorsement received after the first round of primary voting took place.
- Partisan clients
- 1 2 Poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota
- ↑ Poll sponsored by KELO-TV and Nexstar Media
- ↑ Poll conducted for South Dakota News Watch and the University of South Dakota
- ↑ Poll sponsored by Gronli's campaign
References
[edit]- ↑ "South Dakota 2026 General Election". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 13, 2025.
- ↑ "2024 House Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved June 13, 2025.
- ↑ Dausch, Dominik (June 27, 2025). "Marty Jackley plans to run for US Rep. Dusty Johnson's job. Here's what we know". Argus Leader.
- ↑ staff, Dakota News Now (April 1, 2026). "AG Marty Jackley qualifies for U.S. House of Representatives election ballot". Dakota News Now. Retrieved April 1, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Primary Election Candidate List Candidate List". South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved April 7, 2026.
- ↑ "Casey Crabtree exits Congress race, backs Jackley". keloland.com. February 27, 2026. Retrieved April 18, 2026.
- ↑ Hill, Meredith Lee (June 27, 2025). "Rep. Dusty Johnson to announce a bid for South Dakota governor Monday". Politico. Retrieved June 28, 2025.
- ↑ Dakota War College. "Bialota receives Aylward endorsement in Congressional race". Dakota War College. Retrieved April 14, 2026.
- ↑ "Of course, there's that other endorsement for Congress". South Dakota War College. April 25, 2026. Retrieved April 27, 2026.
- ↑ Dakota War College (March 12, 2026). "Trump endorses Marty Jackley for Congress". Dakota War College. Retrieved March 12, 2026.
- ↑ Keloland. "Casey Crabtree exits Congress race, backs Jackley". Keloland. Retrieved March 17, 2026.
- ↑ US Chamber of Commerce. "U.S. Chamber Endorses Candidate Marty Jackley to Represent South Dakota in the House of Representatives". US Chamber of Commerce. Retrieved June 5, 2026.
- 1 2 "2026 Election United States House - South Dakota at-large". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved March 7, 2026.
- ↑ Rifaat, Alexander (April 20, 2026). "Poll: Johnson widens lead in SD GOP governor race". South Dakota News Watch. Retrieved April 20, 2026.
- ↑ "South Dakota 2026 Poll: Dusty Johnson Leads Incumbent Larry Rhoden in Governor Election". Emerson College Polling. March 11, 2026. Retrieved March 11, 2026.
- ↑ "New poll shows Jackley leading potential candidates for U.S. House". KDLT-TV. June 27, 2025. Retrieved June 28, 2025.
- ↑ Killough, Kevin (October 29, 2025). "House poll: Jackley leads with many undecided". South Dakota News Watch. Retrieved October 30, 2025.
- ↑ Huber, Makenzie (September 8, 2025). "Former USDA appointee announces Democratic bid for Congress". South Dakota Searchlight. Retrieved September 8, 2025.
- ↑ "Billy Mawhiney drops out of Congressional race".
- ↑ Burns, Krista (June 5, 2026). "President Biden Endorses Dan Ahlers, Julian Beaudion, and Nikki Gronli for Governor, U.S. Senate, & U.S. House". South Dakota Democratic Party. Retrieved June 5, 2026.
- ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1926817". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved November 24, 2025.
- ↑ "2026 House Ratings". Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved July 15, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 10, 2025.
- ↑ "2026 House Ratings". Inside Elections.
- ↑ "2026 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 10, 2025.
- ↑ "2026 Elections & Endorsements". AFSCME Council 65. Archived from the original on October 21, 2026. Retrieved October 30, 2026.
- ↑ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Archived from the original on July 25, 2026. Retrieved October 24, 2026.
- ↑ "South Dakota". National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund. Retrieved September 13, 2026.
- ↑ "Endorsement: Rhoden, Rounds and Jackley for South Dakota's top spots". Mitchell Republic. October 17, 2026. Retrieved October 19, 2026.
- ↑ "2026 Election United States House - South Dakota". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved June 2, 2026.
- ↑ Wetsch, Molly; DeCock, Emily (October 21, 2026). "Poll: Jackley leads Gronli 60-32% for US House". South Dakota News Watch. Retrieved October 22, 2026.
- ↑ "Lake Research Partners poll | 8/26-8/30 LV". Twitter. September 30, 2026. Retrieved October 3, 2026.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites