#KSLEG 2026 state House Forecast update.
There is a 87.4% Chance that the GOP supermajority breaks, with Democrats favored to flip 10 seats. Still a large number of close seats.
Kansas provided a good example of why I don't think mail-in ballot analysis will be useful if you're assuming it's the same as previous years.
26 primary was ~6.5% mail. That's the lowest since the 18 primary, which was 7.6% mail.
(Credit to Ike-lab)