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Hello and welcome to London Influence: This is John Johnston gearing up for the by-election madness to come.
SNEAK PEEK
— Influence brings you all the latest from the messaging war in Makerfield.
— A Labour peer wants her private members’ bill to be a vehicle for Keir Starmer and pals to deliver on long-promised lobbying reform.
— AI is continuing to cause grief for British democracy.
MESSAGING MAKERFIELD
AND WE’RE OFF: The date for the most consequential by-election in recent political history has been set, and the key messages and campaign tactics are already taking shape.
Setting the scene: Wannabe PM Andy Burnham’s return to parliament rests with Makerfield’s 77,000-strong electorate. The seat has been Labour since it was created in 1983, but this contest is far from a sure thing. Reform UK emerged victorious in all eight of the constituency’s council wards earlier this month, bagging 50.4 percent of the vote share compared to Labour’s 22.7 percent. Nigel Farage’s party finished second at the 2024 general election with 32 percent of the vote, and a “Reform source” has bragged they achieved that result “without delivering a single leaflet”. Eek.
Also rans: With a very close contest predicted, the extent to which the other parties campaign could be pivotal. Some of Ed Davey’s troops have penned pieces for Lib Dem Voice suggesting they sit this one out, and one suggested they ask for an airtight commitment from Burnham to implement proportional representation in return. The FT hears senior Greens are mulling holding back on their campaign investment too.
Opening salvoes: While the other parties figure out their approach, the two top contenders have been out pounding the pavements, and they were pushing online ads even before the by-election date was set.
Up first: Labour North West dropped between £2k and £2.5k of Facebook and Instagram ads within hours of sitting MP Josh Simons announcing his resignation to make way for Burnham. They asked voters to relay their “priorities” on a Labour-owned survey site. The national Labour Party spent a further £500 pushing the same message on Google’s platforms.
Down data t’pit: The survey gobbles up the personal deets of those wanting to flag their three key concerns. It also asks voters to rate from 1 to 10 how likely they are to vote Labour, and reveal any party they “definitely wouldn’t vote for.” Sounds boring, but it’s vital info which allows party strategists to microtarget subsequent ads, and tailor requests for donations and canvassing support.
B-roll Burnham: But the biggest messaging moment came via this slick four minute video on Burnham’s X account Monday. Replete with clips of star-struck locals stopping to tell him how much they love him, and explaining why his success in Manchester should be replicated nationally, it’s clear Burnham isn’t afraid to put his ambitions for high office on show.
Ale with Andy: Ticking off all the key themes, the promo also packs in shots of him sipping pints … a monologue about how he spent time in Makerfield in his youth and opted to send his kids to school there … and hammers home the claims that his “Manchesterism” model is the cure for Britain’s ills.
Breaking the mould: His man of the people schtick continues on X, where he’s been retweeting supportive comments, politely debating with media and political critics, sharing memes about his running shorts, and responding to voters about niche local concerns.
Bit on the nose: A fellow Everton supporter even earned a retweet for their semi-jokey statement that Burnham is “my Prime Minister” after he paused a Channel 4 interview to give some love to a passer-by wearing the club’s merch.
To be fair… Tackling his Downing Street dream head-on is probably a wise choice given multiple Labour MPs told Influence his ambition for high office risks becoming a messaging minefield. “It’s the political equivalent of budging through to your mate at the bar and then ordering 20 drinks,” one said. “There’s very few people able to pull that off without getting a bloody nose.”
Threading the needle: Another said while Burnham is “by any metric” the party’s top communicator, it is vital for him to nail the framing early so that Labour activists are armed with an “honest and digestible rebuttal to the careerism charge.”
Which one? A third told Influence they aren’t at all excited about spending hours on trains to Makerfield given the complexity of the campaign … but reckon most MPs will still make the effort to “kiss the king’s ring.”
Field testing: But while Burnham’s slick pitch has landed pretty well with the Westminster commentariat, Reform is clearly confident it can punch a hole through that narrative on the doorstep … and the attack ads have already started.
First strike: On Meta, the party has spent close to £1,500 targeting users in Makerfield postcodes with claims that the by-election is “all about his own personal ambition.” One ad has a mock-up of Burnham dragging a suitcase with a “Next Stop: Makerfield” sticker sitting below the names of two other constituencies where MPs had reportedly been willing to make way for the Manchester mayor.
Second blow: Keeping with the theme, another ad depicts the “Andy Burnham seat generator” as a spinning prize wheel where every segment contains the word “Anywhere.”
Hammering it home: Reform has also pushed out their own polished videos, including (you guessed it) more attacks on Burnham’s outsider narrative. Yesterday’s offering honed in on his 16 year career as an MP and minister under Blair and Brown … his votes in support of the Iraq war … clips of him chumming around on stage with Jeremy Corbyn … his recent comments about re-joining the EU … and a host more jibes all packed into a two minute bitesize broadside.
Local candidate for local people: In addition to portraying Burnham as yet another establishment stooge, the party has also blasted out a pro-pitch for their own candidate, Robert Kenyon. As expected, he talks up the fact that if elected he’d be the only local MP to ever have been born in Makerfield … compares his plumbing career against those starting out in a think-tank … and claims the prospect of representing the patch makes him emotional, while Burnham only sees it as a “stepping stone.”
Milifandom is back baby: While neither party has properly taken to TikTok (yet) to drum up support, Influence found a surprising number of pro-Burnham videos being posted on the platform. There’s even several dedicated fan accounts — yes, seriously — which are sharing a mixture of punchy Burnham performances alongside some, ahem, unorthodox content that shouldn’t be watched without headphones in.
To be fair… The content is getting an unexpected amount of engagement, including comments from people claiming they are now up for campaigning in Makerfield because of the vibes. Could this be the first election where aura farming emerges as a key campaign tactic?
The stage is set: So the opening narratives are set: country vs. careerism, experience vs. establishment. For the first time in his political life, Farage has an operation capable of keeping up, if not eclipsing, his opponents when it comes to tech skills. And Burnham is a candidate willing to try out something new. Buckle up, it is going to be a fun few weeks for campaign geeks … and Influence will be there every step of the way.
QUICK HITS
KEPT THAT QUIET: Rescuing dozens of dogs, donating millions to homelessness support groups, and saving abandoned baby twins. All things that Nigel Farage has done… at least according to a wave of AI generated fakes being spread by Facebook pages.
Grim stuff: Analysis from Full Fact found the flood of fake content came primarily from Facebook pages based in Vietnam, with the stories attracting almost 400,000 reactions. While other British political figures feature, the Reform UK leader appears most frequently. In one appalling example, AI was used to alter a real photo of an American child suffering with terminal cancer to make it appear as if Farage was at his bedside to fulfill his “final wish.”
Clickbait crooks: There is no suggestion that any party or politician is involved —or even aware — this is happening. The fact checking group reckon the fabricated stories may be an attempt to earn money through various monetization schemes, but swathes of voters are still being tricked into giving Farage and others credit for the false acts of kindness.
MORE ROBOT WARS: The Electoral Commission is demanding more legal controls over AI chatbots spouting disinformation after an investigation by the Demos think tank found the tech tools provided misinformation in response to 34 percent of the questions posed about the local, Scottish and Welsh elections. That’s a real concern given that an estimated 11 million people asked questions ahead of polling day. The Guardian has the full details.
SHAPPS SLAP: Former Tory Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has quit as chairman of Cambridge Aerospace following concerns he broke revolving door rules after the firm secured a major government missile contract. Shapps said he stepped down “to simplify matters.” Ministerial ethics watchdog Laurie Magnus said he had “allowed a perception of impropriety to develop” and “failed to uphold the standards expected in the rules.”
ANTI-CORRUPTION OOPSIE: A senior National Crime Agency official is claiming unfair dismissal after accepting invitations from a PR firm — including a £600 night out at a burlesque club — weeks before the company won a contract to represent the crime busting agency. The Times has all the details.
INQUIRY CALL: Labour MP John McDonnell has tabled an Early Day Motion to try and drum up support for an independent inquiry into the think tank Labour Together. Peter Geoghegan had more on the Labour Together scandal in a Democracy for Sale Substack this week.
LOBBYING WESTMINSTER
HITTING THE JACKPOT: One of parliament’s biggest advocates of lobbying reform has hit the legislative jackpot. The timing could be perfect as Keir Starmer promises an ethics overhaul in the aftermath of the Peter Mandelson scandal.
Hayter the creator: Labour peer Dianne Hayter’s name was pulled out of a hat last Friday giving her the top spot in the House of Lords private members’ bill ballot. She is using the precious opportunity to propose a new law — the Lobbying Transparency (In-house Lobbyists) Bill — extending the U.K. Register of Lobbyists to include in-house pros.
Long time coming: Hayter has long wanted to act after scrutinizing the 2014 lobbying act, which brought in the new register recording info about consultant lobbyists and their clients, as a shadow frontbencher. When her name came up she was in no doubt she wanted to put right the “really silly” exemption for in-house lobbyists.
Level the field: Hayter, a former director of the charity Alcohol Concern, argues there’s an “inequality of arms” under the current rules which allows bigger companies with in-house lobbying teams to fly under the radar, while “tiddlers” like charities and small businesses who enlist the help of external consultants must register.
Re-tread: The Greensill lobbying scandal of 2021 “epitomizes in a way the problems with the 2014 act,” Hayter says, citing ex-PM David Cameron’s excruciating lobbying efforts on behalf of Greensill Capital. “[Cameron] didn’t have to join the Registrar of Lobbyists — but he was lobbying,” she says.
Hope springs eternal: The big problem is Lords’ private members’ bills rarely make it into law given a lack of time allocated because government business usually take precedence. So Hayter is hoping her bill might catch the eye of ministers.
In perfect timing: Starmer asked the Ethics and Integrity Commission to carry out a review into lobbying, disclosure and access to government in March after the Epstein files exposed potential conflict of interest issues around ex-U.K. ambassador to Washington Peter Mandelson. The review is expected to report back in July.
Gameplan: “If they’ve asked this Ethics and Integrity Commission to look at lobbying, and if they come up with anything like this, I think the government could find — I’m not saying they will — but they could find my bill just the vehicle they need to do something.”
Back to those roots: Hayter argues that giving time to her PMB would allow ministers to quickly make changes. “In some ways, this is quite an easy way of doing it. It is a Labour government, that when we were Labour in opposition favored this.”
Keeping the dream alive: If ministers give her bill time, she is optimistic she would get the backing of lawmakers in both chambers of the U.K. parliament. “Who could possibly vote against? I mean, really, it would just look absurd,” she said.
Talking the talk: She is already lining up a meeting with Lords Cabinet Office minister Ruth Anderson, and she hopes to touch base with the authors of the Ethics review too. It’s recommendations are expected to be shared with Starmer later this month, and could be published by early July.
Political turbulence: Hayter says she is keeping well out of leadership chatter as Starmer’s authority takes a pasting and potential rivals circle. Chartered Institute of Public Relations Head of PR and Policy Jon Gerlis, who is helping Hayter with the PMB, acknowledges there is a “risk” someone comes in and doesn’t see it as a priority, but warns “it shouldn’t be a leadership issue.”
Trust us: “This is about doing the right thing, but also genuinely trying to build back some trust, which is really the platform that Labour stood on and won them the election,” Gerlis adds. “It’s all very well saying we want to bring back high standards, and we want to be the government of service, but at some point you have to do something tangible, and that relationship between business and politics is probably the one that has the most question marks hanging over it, and nothing has been done to really address that significantly,” he says.
Restore that trust: Hayter agrees on those high stakes. “I do think that there is something very serious about trust, more than just trust, the way politics is working, and it is partly about funding as well. But I do think we have to put these things right to make our democracy really robust, and this is only a part of it.”
ON THE MOVE
Daniel Mazliah is leaving iNHouse to become comms chief for the Children’s Commissioner.
Matthew Sutton has joined Cavendish as director of sport, governance and reputation after a spell at Atticus Partners.
Fleetwood has promoted James Olney to associate director and Ed Holtom to senior manager.
Ellie Anderson has joined Hawthorn Advisors as a consultant in the public affairs team after a stint at Atticus Partners.
Ex-Cabinet Office deputy comms director Ashok Ahir has been appointed as director of corporate affairs at the Welsh Rugby Union.
Zoe Russell has been promoted to head of public affairs at the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.
Comms pro Theresa Bischof has left the Good Growth Foundation to work as political commentator.
Catriona Laing has been appointed as the new chair of UK Music after a spell leading the FCDO’s soft power initiative.
Former Lightfoot Advisors founder Harry Burns has launched AI-powered reputation management firm rep.ai.
Jobs jobs jobs: More in Common is looking for a political assistant … Ed Davey wants to hire a content creator … The National Housing Federation has an opening for a public affairs officer … The Samaritans want to find a public affairs and campaigns officer … The Carbon Capture and Storage Association is on the hunt for an external affairs officer … There’s a public affairs officer role going at Energy UK … and Reform UK want to bring in a vetting officer.
Thanks: To editor Annabelle Dickson for banishing typos. And to the production team for making Influence look lovely.