Hurricane Nolo Spins Off Hawaii, Bringing Threat of Dangerous Flooding
As much as 16 inches of rain could fall on parts of the Big Island this weekend even as the storm avoids land. It is the third hurricane to approach the state in recent weeks.
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Hurricane Nolo strengthened slightly as it moved west, away from Hawaii, on Sunday morning. Strong and gusty winds were still expected for the islands, but the threat of heavy rain and flooding was diminishing as the storm pulled away, forecasters said.
Here’s what to know:
Early on Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center said Nolo was moving west and was expected to continue on this trajectory, away from Hawaii, over the next day or so. Forecasters said the storm was not expected to make landfall elsewhere, although it was forecast to strengthen to a Category 4 hurricane as it moves farther into the Pacific.
Nolo is expected to bring strong and gusty winds for all of the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, but as the storm continues to move away, the threat of heavy rain and flooding was diminishing, with only scattered showers expected.
The threat of significant storm surge was also expected to lessen on Sunday, although water levels along the coast were likely to remain elevated through the upcoming high tides. Large and damaging waves were also possible along portions of the Big Island’s coastline through the day.
Hawaii has faced numerous weather disasters this year. Just two weeks ago, Hurricane Lowell lashed Kauai with heavy rain and wind, battering the island’s north and south shores. Hurricane Lala narrowly missed the Big Island in August, but its outer bands tore through the island’s valleys and knocked its mountains with winds and rain that flooded homes, closed roads and knocked out power.
It’s a busy time for storms in the Pacific. Hurricane Polo, at one time one of the strongest storms on record in the Western Hemisphere, was moving along Mexico’s coastline this weekend. And Polo, along with Hurricane Odalys farther out at sea, could drive swells as far as Southern California this week.
Maps for Hurricane Polo | Maps for Hurricane Odalys | Maps for Hurricane Nolo
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Hurricane Nolo strengthened slightly on Sunday as it continued west, away from the Hawaiian Islands. As it pulled farther away, its impacts were gradually diminishing, though strong and gusty winds and large, potentially dangerous waves were expected to remain a concern for the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said. The threat of heavy rain and flooding was easing, however, with scattered showers expected on Sunday.
Nolo took an anticipated turn to the west on Saturday. The hurricane was no longer moving toward the Big Island and its center only ever got within about 145 miles of the island, but its outer bands were bringing heavy rain there. The wettest locations across the north, east and south parts of the island have recorded from five to more than 10 inches of rain in the last 48 hours, and an additional three to six inches of rain could fall. The drier west side will likely measure one to two inches from the storm. Eastern Maui could pick up another one to two inches, with storm totals approaching four to eight. The west side of Maui and the remaining islands will pick up less rain.
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The powerhouse El Niño in the Pacific Ocean is making itself felt on two sides of the nation for the first, but probably not last, time this year.
The nor’easter lashing the East Coast this weekend followed a path that can become more common for storms during El Niño, the climate phenomenon that originates in the tropical Pacific and goes on to influence rainfall, temperature and storms around the globe.
A continent away, Hurricane Nolo, which is threatening to soak the Big Island of Hawaii with rain, is being fueled by El Niño-warmed waters in the Pacific. Since August, a parade of hurricanes has battered Hawaii with an intensity that has caught even scientists off guard.
“I lived in Hawaii for 24 years and this is the craziest summer, the craziest fall, I’ve ever seen,” said Mark Merrifield, an ocean scientist and former director of the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center.
El Niño is part of a natural cycle in the Pacific Ocean that recurs every few years and brings a cascade of weather effects across the planet. Its strength typically peaks late in the calendar year. By some metrics, this one is already the strongest on record, an indication of how significantly it is likely to upend many regions’ normal weather patterns in the coming months.
People around the world are already dealing with the consequences. Indonesia is living under a haze of toxic smoke from wildfires worsened by drought. Crops have withered under dry conditions in India, Central America and parts of eastern Africa. Sea levels are rising on the coast of California, giving a leg up for storms and waves to flood homes and erode beaches.
And Hawaii is confronting an extraordinary spate of hurricanes, which are drawing strength from the thick layer of warm water that El Niño produces at the surface of the central and eastern Pacific.
Besides providing more energy for Pacific hurricanes, El Niño also creates conditions in the atmosphere that help them stick around and intensify, said Kim Wood, an associate professor in the department of hydrology and atmospheric sciences at the University of Arizona.
Hawaii has been threatened by such storms before, but never in rapid succession like this year. “It is quite unusual to get that kind of back-to-back-to-back experience,” Dr. Wood said. “And with how mountainous those islands are, the rain threat is just that much worse.”
When moist air hits mountains, it is forced upward, causing it to cool and release precipitation.
Before this year, only six hurricanes over the past seven decades had been recorded as passing within 50 miles of the state, according to Michael Lowry, a hurricane expert for WPLG-TV in Miami. Hurricane Nolo could become the third one to do so this year.
Scientists are working to understand whether human-caused global warming might be leading to more frequent, strong El Niños. They haven’t reached a clear consensus, though one thing is certain: The gyrations that El Niño brings are coming on top of an ocean and atmosphere already warmed by greenhouse gas emissions. That means the effects of an El Niño — whether downpours, wildfires or droughts — can potentially be more severe than they would have been in an earlier, cooler time for the planet.
El Niño’s influence on storms around the United States this year might just be getting started. Come winter, it is likely to help deliver more drenching rain to California. During some past El Niños, the perennially water-stressed state has received one and a half times its usual amount of precipitation, often through winter storms that recharge groundwater but can also cause flooding.
For the Northeast, El Niño doesn’t directly feed storms like the one pounding the coast this weekend, though nor’easters appear to be more frequent in El Niño years. One possible reason? El Niño causes the Pacific jet stream, or the band of air moving west to east at high altitudes, to shift south. That provides a supply of energy and moisture for storms that can take shape off the Southeastern United States then swing north.
The saving grace for eastern states is that El Niño generally leads to quiet Atlantic hurricane seasons. The shift in atmospheric patterns over the Pacific also increases upper-level winds over the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to spin up into hurricanes there.
So far this year, not a single storm in the Atlantic has managed to become a hurricane.
Hurricane Nolo meandered 145 miles south of the Big Island on Saturday and was expected to take a turn west later today. The forecast continued to show that the storm will stay well south and southwest of the island chain.
Still, the outer bands of the storm were bringing rain and by early Saturday morning the wettest locations on the Big Island had recorded about 5 inches. Heavy rain was expected to expand across the Big Island and east Maui through the weekend.
Nolo strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane this morning, and forecasters said they expect it to “significantly intensify” through the weekend.
In a recent update to Nolo’s expected path, the National Hurricane Center said the storm will remain south of the Big Island before turning west on Saturday, sparing the state from a direct hit but nevertheless delivering strong winds and a dangerous amount of rain.
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Gov. Josh Green announced that he had positioned more than 100 members of the National Guard on the Big Island and 400 statewide. The governor warned that the worse impacts would be on Hawaii Island, with potential flash flooding. “We will rebuild what’s damaged,” he said, and urged people to stay sheltered as the storm passes.
Hurricane Nolo could pose one of the most significant tests of the Federal Emergency Management Agency under President Trump’s second term. It will also be the biggest storm to hit the United States since new leadership took charge at the agency.
FEMA deployed multiple resources to Hawaii on Friday, including urban search and rescue teams from San Diego and Colorado; one of three federal teams that helps lead and manage more complex searches; and a mobile team that helps maintain emergency communications throughout disasters.
FEMA Administrator Cameron Hamilton became the agency’s first permanent leader in more than a year and a half after the Senate confirmed his nomination in August. FEMA lost about 17 percent of its work force since Mr. Trump’s second term started, including more than half of its most senior and experienced leaders. But many current and former FEMA officials have expressed hope that Mr. Hamilton’s leadership could restore stability and capability to the agency, even as he explores changes that could reduce the number of disasters FEMA responds to.
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green, a Democrat, requested a federal disaster declaration Wednesday as forecasts showed threats of flooding rains and damaging winds. Mr. Trump granted the request as the storm bore down on Friday. A declaration allows state and local governments in Hawaii to seek federal reimbursement for disaster-related costs.
State Representative Jeanné Kapela, whose district includes Big Island communities hit hard by Lala, said on Thursday that the next hurricane was coming while some people remain without electricity and homes were destroyed.
“Hurricane Lala was awful and it is an incredibly long road to recovery for our entire community,” she said in an interview. “We haven’t had time to recover and now we’re being hit with a potential Category 3.”
Officials said schools and county offices were closed across the island on Thursday and Friday.
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On Friday, before the weather intensified as Hurricane Nolo moved toward Hawaii, Kirill “Kerry” Vekhov was at the controls of his 15,000-pound excavator on a ranch in Ka’ū.
Hurricane Lala had left a trail of devastation through the area last month, including flooding a historic building on the ranch. Knowing that rain was coming, Mr. Vekhov, 35, had spent days removing debris from a nearby gulch and building a berm to give the ranch a fighting chance.
Mr. Vekhov, who owns the Kona-based company Aina Landscaping, has put his regular business on hold for the past five weeks to help communities in the area recover from Lala.
In Kaloko, where he lives, the storm brought down trees and power lines, making roads difficult to pass. Mr. Vekhov quickly began volunteering to clear them, using his company’s equipment. He soon realized that many residents did not have the machinery for recovery work on their properties, so, for the first time in five years, he posted on social media, inviting people to contact him directly if they needed help.
The post was so popular that he spent the next two days helping clear storm debris all over Kona. He hasn’t stopped.
Mr. Vekhov’s grandfather was buried in the Na’alehu Cemetery, where flooding damaged several graves and unearthed human remains. His grandfather’s grave was intact, but as Mr. Vekhov drove to answer the calls for help, his heart sank.
“It was the worst devastation on this kind of level that I’d ever seen,” he said.
He got to work with his employees and some volunteers. Near the Wai'ahinu flood channel, he said, some areas had six to 10 feet of debris piled up around buildings.
Many homeowners, Mr. Vekhov said, had either no insurance or no flood insurance. But he believed many buildings were still salvageable and that he and his team needed to act quickly to prevent mold damage. He went from house to house with his equipment, including his excavator, a 10,000-pound loader, trucks, trailers and dumpsters.
He also lent some of his equipment to people in need, and donated $30,000 in fuel to areas that did not have a working gas station. He sought to recoup some of his costs through a GoFundMe, but eventually shut it down because he did not want to take donations away from families in the community, he said. He then sought support only through nonprofits and the government while continuing to document his work daily on social media, hoping to keep attention on Ka’ū.
More than a month after Lala, Mr. Vekhov said he is getting dozens of messages a day asking for help. With Nolo approaching, he was worried about further damage to structures and more loss of life. At least two people in Ka’ū had died in connection with Lala.
“If I can save a structure or someone’s home by putting in a day of work, I’m not going to stop until all of them are saved, or at least have a fighting chance,” he said.
Reporting from Honolulu
It has been two weeks since Hurricane Lowell brought destructive winds and rain to the Hawaiian island of Kauai, but little is known about how it affected Niihau — a privately owned island to the west that was closer to the eye of the storm.
Niihau, about 70 square miles, is believed to be home to fewer than 100 Hawaiians. According to the 2020 census, the population was 84.
Officials with the state and Kauai County, which includes Niihau, have said they were in regular contact with the Robinson family, the island’s owners, as Lowell turned westward toward the main Hawaiian islands this month.
Niihau has maintained an unusual level of isolation since Elizabeth Sinclair of New Zealand bought the island from the Hawaiian king Kamehameha V in 1864 for $10,000 in gold. Two brothers, Bruce and Keith Robinson, who are her descendants and the island’s current owners, haven’t said anything publicly about storm damage.
No one is allowed to visit the island without the Robinsons’ permission.
“The damage assessment will take a little longer because we were very mindful about getting permission to go over to Niihau,” Gov. Josh Green of Hawaii said Wednesday during a news conference. “We humbly only go over when asked.”
Niihau has a subsistence-based, traditional culture that relies on rain catchment systems, solar energy, fishing and hunting. County officials said the island has sturdy structures, well-stocked supplies and a helicopter.
“They actually had a worse forecast than us,” Elton Ushio, administrator for the Kauai Emergency Management Agency, said in an interview.
The agency sounded an outdoor warning siren on Niihau on the evening of Sept. 7 as hurricane-force winds moved toward the island. The siren warned residents to stay indoors ahead of the imminent arrival of sustained winds of 74 miles an hour or greater.
Lowell knocked out power to most of Kauai and battered its north and south shores with flooding and storm surge. The Kauai police said there were two deaths during the storm. Eighteen homes were destroyed and 67 suffered major damage.
But there were no injuries on Niihau and everyone was accounted for, Mr. Ushio said.
“They told us about 30 were there for the storm,” he said.
No other details have been available.
“We, as well as the Robinsons, have been getting so much media questions,” Mr. Ushio said. “And they really try to be protective of their community.”
Members of the Robinson family didn’t return calls seeking comment.
Mr. Ushio said he had built a relationship with the Robinsons over his 33 years of working for the county. He has been to Niihau twice. In the 1980s, his father, a state Education Department employee, would jump on a barge taking supplies to Niihau every so often to check on the island’s school.
“They operate on a lot of old-school trust,” Mr. Ushio said. “In Hawaii, a lot of things is by trust.”
Whenever a storm threatens the county, the Robinsons, who also have significant land holdings on Kauai, participate in daily coordination calls, which include National Weather Service officials, utility leaders and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Mr. Ushio said.
The Robinsons and the other residents of Niihau “are the toughest, most extraordinary people you’re ever going to meet,” Governor Green said. “They felt that they probably didn’t need any federal assistance because they are so resilient. They are used to living for generations independently.”
The Robinson brothers, who are in their 80s, are not Hawaiian but grew up fluent in the Niihau dialect of Hawaiian that is spoken on the island.
“The Robinsons are not considered outsiders,” said Hinaleimoana Wong, a Hawaiian cultural practitioner who lives in Honolulu. She is fluent in Niihau Hawaiian because she was taken in as a youth by a Niihau family, she said.
“They are not looked at by the Niihauans as the marauders, the plunderers, the raiders or the oppressive ones,” she said.
Niihau is an island of deep faith, she said. Missionaries introduced the Protestant branch of Christianity to Hawaii in the 19th century. On Niihau, they follow “kalawina,” or Calvinist theology, Ms. Wong said.
“When they received word that the storm is going to hit, they’re praying, they’re in church,” she said. “You have a Pacific island whose faith is greater than any storm.”
There are strict rules against tobacco and alcohol on Niihau, she said.
Hawaiian culture has remained far more intact on the island than in other parts of Hawaii that were transformed by U.S. colonization and the 1893 overthrow of the Hawaiian kingdom by a group of American businessmen.
“The Native Hawaiian community is always protesting, rallying, marching,” Ms. Wong said. “We got lots to grumble about because we suffered great degradation and loss of language, culture and history. But they didn’t.”
This week, the Kauai Island Utility Cooperative reported that service had been restored to 98 percent of customers who lost power during the storm.
Officials across the state were monitoring Hurricane Nolo, which was expected to bring heavy rain to the southern end of the Big Island that is still recovering from Hurricane Lala last month.
As of Thursday, the biggest rainfall threats from Nolo were to Maui and the Big Island, said Laura Farris, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu. Niihau was forecast to get two to four inches of rain, she said, and large waves could lash the island’s shores as Nolo moves west through Sunday.
Hawaii’s hurricane season generally goes through Nov. 30.
“Niihau will always survive,” Governor Green said, “but it was in the thick of the hurricane-force winds.”
Sheelagh McNeill contributed research.