NFL QB rankings, Week 2: Caleb Williams, Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence soar into top five

I begin this QB Index with a disclaimer: With only one week's worth of evidence, there is more volatility than usual.

Reputation matters, but so do recent results. We're a long way from solidifying the standing of many of these quarterbacks, and because we saw some unexpected outcomes in Week 1, prepare yourself for some aggressive swings.

It'll even out eventually. For now, I have one bit of advice: Buckle up.

NOTE: Up/down arrows illustrate movement from the Week 1 QB Index.

TIER 1

• Josh Allen nearly blew Buffalo's chances of scoring a huge Week 1 win with an inexplicable YOLO ball into the end zone late in the fourth quarter, but Houston CB Kamari Lassiter dropped the potential game-sealing pick. Now that I've put that on the record, allow me to acknowledge that Allen was otherwise marvelous in this contest. He played all the Allen hits in the Bills' 36-31 win: He scored a rushing touchdown on a wild scramble, connected with DJ Moore on a 43-yard touchdown pass, scored another rushing touchdown from a yard out and directed a 96-yard touchdown drive with the game on the line, capping it by firing a rocket between two defenders to Josh Palmer for the game-winning score. That's a great start to his annual MVP push.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Allen averaged 12.6 air yards per attempt -- his highest mark in a game since Week 18 of 2022 -- and he was efficient pushing the ball downfield, completing 11 of 16 attempts of 10-plus air yards for 286 yards and two touchdowns.

• Caleb Williams remains one of the most thrilling, joyous watches in the NFL. He makes throws nobody else is capable of completing on a weekly basis and did so at least twice on Sunday, dropping a laser-guided strike over two defenders to Cole Kmet for a touchdown and heaving an off-platform missile to Rome Odunze to set up another score. In the first game of Williams' third professional season, I arrived at a new realization: The 24-year-old now deeply understands the timing and priorities of Ben Johnson's scheme and operates comfortably within its structure, but much like a great guitarist, Caleb's artistic improvisation is what makes him special and elevates Chicago's offense from very good to fantastic. Sunday's game included a collection of such examples, producing thrills on the ground and through the air that have become part of Williams' brand.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Williams reached a top speed of 20.8 mph on his second touchdown run, a 29-yard scamper in the final minute of the second quarter of Chicago's 59-37 win over Carolina.

• Lamar Jackson raved about Declan Doyle's offense as a breath of fresh air entering the new season. Perhaps he should have described it as a hurricane, because Baltimore destroyed Indianapolis on Sunday. Jackson played an integral part, throwing for 324 yards by leaning heavily on Zay Flowers early and distributing the ball fairly evenly after the star wideout left with a hamstring tweak. It helped that everything worked for the offense, but I won't let Derrick Henry's 144 yards take away from Jackson's performance. If this becomes the standard for the Ravens, expect Jackson to own a firm place in the MVP discussion (again).

• Things looked too easy for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, who shredded Cleveland's defense all afternoon in Jacksonville. Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and even Brenton Strange all renewed their connection with Lawrence, who picked up right where he left off at the end of the 2025 season.

TIER 2

• This ranking isn't entirely based on one week's showing, and this is where reputation mixes with results. Matthew Stafford wasn't himself in the Rams' season-opening loss to the 49ers in Australia, but the reigning NFL MVP wasn't all that awful. Surprisingly, Stafford finished with a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of +2.5%. Bryce Young played excellently, on the other hand, and leapfrogs Stafford for perhaps the only time all season.

• In fact, let's take a second to dive a little deeper into Young's performance. A typically up-and-down quarterback, Young looked confident in his most aggressive game since he threw for 448 yards in Carolina's Week 11 win over Atlanta last season. Most importantly, Young finally looked fully comfortable in Dave Canales' offense, made decisions with conviction and truly elevated Carolina's offense. Was it enough to keep up with Caleb Williams' Bears? No. But it's worth tracking over the next month, because it could heavily influence his contract talks with the Panthers if this is a preview of what's to come.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Young threw for 289 yards and averaged 14.5 yards per attempt against zone coverage, compared to 72 yards and 4.2 yards per attempt against man coverage in Sunday's loss to Chicago.

• Now back to the rest of the group. Patrick Mahomes scored a rushing touchdown, but it's clear he's not quite back to his old self in the mobility department, which didn't help his passing efforts early in Monday night's 31-10 win over Denver. That's fine when Kenneth Walker III is shredding an opposing defense, but Kansas City can’t count on that every week. Mahomes eventually found a rhythm in the second half and finished the game with a pair of TD passes, but I didn't expect him to start lighting up defenses through the air instantly. This will probably be a slow burn.

• Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow and Jared Goff largely looked like themselves, but at lower-than-usual outputs, with Prescott adding an uncharacteristic interception as a result of a failed throwaway attempt that led to a Giants touchdown. Every quarterback is shaking off some rust in Week 1, so there's no cause for alarm.

• Brock Purdy was incredibly sharp in Australia and confidently cooked the Rams defense even after losing De'Zhaun Stribling to injury. The Uncs of the world enjoyed watching him connect with three different thirtysomething receivers for touchdowns, and I'm sure Purdy was happy to have Mike Evans on his side to start the season.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Purdy tied his career high with seven straight dropbacks when aligned under center (no play-action) in Week 1 against the Rams, completing all seven passes for 76 yards and two touchdowns, including a 39-yard strike to Demarcus Robinson in the second quarter.

• Jalen Hurts had a classic Jalen Hurts game in Week 1, connecting on a handful of downfield shots while willing Philadelphia's offense down the field with well-timed scrambles against Washington. The Eagles still need to be more consistent offensively on a per-play basis, but for one week, Hurts was able to carry them out of the muck to victory.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Hurts completed 6 of 9 downfield passes (10+ air yards) for 176 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 against the Commanders. His yardage on those throws was the eighth-highest downfield total of his career, while he threw three-plus downfield touchdown passes for just the sixth time.

TIER 3

• Remember how I said there would be some stunning volatility in the rankings this week? Well, we've reached that portion of the program.

• I couldn't stomach dropping Justin Herbert any further because he still threw for 200 yards, but that interception in the fourth quarter was ghastly and an unnecessary risk, which we usually don't see from Herbert, especially when trying to climb out of a nine-point hole.

• Tyler Shough, on the other hand, shook off his early mistakes and let it rip in the second half, throwing the Saints back into a game that seemed destined to end in a lopsided loss. I'm not afraid to admit how much I'm enjoying watching him progress as a starter; he's fearless when the pressure is on and is developing a clutch gene that should entertain Saints fans throughout 2026. It would be nice if their offense woke up earlier next time, though.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Shough completed 8 of 11 passes against the Lions' blitz for 79 yards and three touchdowns in the second half and overtime, after going just 2 of 7 for 17 yards with an interception and a sack-fumble in the first half. On downfield passes (10+ air yards), Shough completed 11 of 16 attempts for 261 yards and a touchdown, the most such yards by a Saints quarterback since Drew Brees in Week 6, 2016.

• C.J. Stroud played really well for most of Sunday's close loss to the Bills, but bookending a good game with lost fumbles will knock you down the QB Index. Jordan Love lands in the same category after singlehandedly carrying the Packers offense through three quarters, then crumbling beneath the pressure applied by Brian Flores' defense. It wasn't his fault alone; Green Bay's offensive line struggled significantly with picking up blitzes and stunts. But as the director of the offense, Love needed to be better to stop the meltdown.

• We only saw a handful of plays from Sam Darnold (glute injury), who lands ahead of Jacoby Brissett largely because he wasn't afforded much time to succeed or fail. Brissett certainly didn't fail, powering a hungry Cardinals offense by leaning on Trey McBride and even finding Marvin Harrison Jr. for a long completion on Arizona's way to stunning the Chargers.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Brissett completed 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards (+23.9% CPOE) on throws over 10 air yards in the Cards' upset win over the Bolts.

• Drake Maye's decent start completely fell apart in the fourth quarter, and two of his three interceptions were solely his fault. In terms of starts following an MVP runner-up campaign, this one will not be remembered fondly.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): All three of Maye's interceptions came on deep attempts (20-plus air yards), two more than he threw all last season (one). Maye's interception on New England's final drive lost the Patriots' 47.9% win probability, the most on a single pass attempt of his career

• Geno Smith did a lot to prove the Raiders' nightmarish situation was to blame for his ugly 2025 season, benefitting from a strong offensive line in a very professional Week 1 outing (and kindling a new connection with Adonai Mitchell that deserves the eyes emoji). Jaxson Dart delivered a similar performance and introduced the world to his new favorite target, former Ravens tight end (and new New York star?) Isaiah Likely. I'm fascinated to see if the Giants can sustain this level of success against better defenses than the Cowboys' revamped unit.

TIER 4

• When you sign up for a season with Baker Mayfield, you know you'll have days in which his competitive streak and refusal to surrender will lead to multiple turnovers. It happened twice on Sunday, with the first resulting in a defensive touchdown for the Bengals and the second probably costing the Buccaneers seven points. Baker giveth and taketh away, but it's probably best it happened in Week 1, not Week 18.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Mayfield averaged 4.7 air yards per attempt (fourth-fewest in a game in his career) and 2.0 air yards per completion (third-fewest) in the 33-27 loss to the Bengals. He completed 18 of 19 passes under 10 air yards for 134 yards and 5 of 8 passes over 10 air yards for 82 yards.

• Jayden Daniels produced a mixed bag in Philadelphia, but the third-year pro moved around confidently and delivered in key spots, keeping Washington in a tight contest that included a nice touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs and saw Daniels lead the Commanders on a 12-play, 63-yard touchdown drive in crunch time. Most importantly, he exited a pressure-packed afternoon healthy.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Daniels was pressured on 19 of 38 dropbacks in Week 1 against the Eagles, translating to a 50.0% pressure rate that tied his career high (Week 9 of 2025 vs. Seattle). He went 15-for-19 with 138 yards and a touchdown when throwing from a clean pocket (78.9% completion percentage), but just 3-for-15 with 26 yards and a touchdown when under pressure (20.0%).

• Aaron Rodgers delivered one vintage moment when he rolled left, set his feet and fired a bullet to Pat Freiermuth in the back of the end zone. Otherwise, much of Sunday saw Rodgers try to force a connection with DK Metcalf, take many more deep shots than he did last season and finish with a passable (at best) performance. At least he looked more like himself in Mike McCarthy's offense.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Rodgers' 9.2 air yards per target in Sunday's 20-13 win over the Falcons is the highest figure he has recorded as a member of the Steelers, with his 2.95-second time-to-throw mark representing his third-highest average in a game with the franchise.

• Bo Nix produced one truly impressive scoring drive and capped it with a pretty touchdown pass to Evan Engram to tie Monday night's game at 7-7. That was it for the highlights; the rest of the night included plenty of lowlights, with Nix appearing overwhelmed and out of sync amid a hailstorm of pressures generated by Steve Spagnuolo's defense.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Nix was pressured on 45.5% of his dropbacks against the Chiefs, his second-highest pressure rate in a game in his career. Nix finished 2 of 10 for 5 yards and an interception under pressure (with two strip-sacks), compared to 15 of 18 for 126 yards and a touchdown from a clean pocket.

• Kirk Cousins played fine football against the lowly Dolphins, took what Miami's defense gave him, kept drives moving and finished three with touchdown tosses, which meets the standard of expectation for him. It also helped that Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty became the Dolphins' most important problem. Cousins' age showed in his performance, though, with the 38-year-old throwing a couple of ugly interceptions and one dirt ball that saddened me because of how the man fell (without getting touched) as he threw it. I think the wait for No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza won't last all that long.

• Daniel Jones didn't move as much as usual in his first game back from a season-ending Achilles injury, but it was difficult to put too much stock in his performance, given how quickly the Ravens buried the Colts in a three-score deficit. He showed some rust in his decision-making, too, forcing a pass into a window that didn't exist with Roquan Smith lurking underneath in coverage, resulting in an interception.

• Malik Willis did some nice things but was up and down -- at best -- and is clearly still acclimating to life as a full-time starter. His mobility is a weapon (and helped him score a rushing touchdown), he threw a handful of pretty passes and never looked especially overwhelmed. He also threw a groaner of an interception and wasn't able to elevate the Dolphins' offense as they'll need him to in order to compete this season. As far as debuts go, it was passable (given the surrounding circumstances), but there's plenty of room to improve.

TIER 5

• Kyler Murray's debut in Minnesota didn't last long, included an interception on his first pass attempt (a desperation heave fired under instant pressure) and ended when he slid at the end of a short scramble, was hit late (drawing a flag) and suffered a concussion, leaving me with almost nothing to evaluate. In the few snaps he saw prior to exiting, there wasn't much to like.

• Cam Ward's first game in Brian Daboll's offense was not the dream many fans hoped for. The absence of a running game and ineffective pass protection limited Ward, who didn't handle the challenges well. This process will take some time and will definitely include growing pains. There were plenty in Sunday's 23-10 loss to the Jets.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Ward faced pressure on 42.1% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate of his career (50% in Week 1 of 2025 vs. Denver). Under pressure, Ward completed 3 of 10 passes for 17 yards, compared to 16 of 22 for 123 yards and a touchdown without pressure.

• Cooper Rush was only effective on passes behind the line of scrimmage, eliminating the downfield threat from Atlanta's offense (one target, zero catches for Kyle Pitts) and funneling the entire Falcons attack through Bijan Robinson. That understandably only worked early, and once the Steelers adjusted, Rush had nowhere else to turn, succumbing to the pressure applied by Pittsburgh's defense in an ugly, low-scoring loss. He also didn't face a single man-coverage snap -- somewhat of a slap in the face from the Steelers' defense, which didn't fear Rush enough to try to blanket Falcons pass catchers in one-on-one matchups.

Next Gen Stats insight (via NFL Pro): Rush did not complete a pass when pressured and particularly struggled when holding on to the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, completing 6 of 14 attempts for 83 yards while throwing two interceptions.

• Deshaun Watson's numbers lied to you. He looked just as slow to make decisions as he did in the preseason, was consistently inaccurate (especially when unsettled by the pass rush), threw an awful interception on his third attempt of the season, ran himself into pressures with remarkably deep pass drops and generally played like a quarterback who hadn't seen regular-season action in two years. Todd Monken told reporters he found plenty to like in Watson's tape, but the only example I can support was his downfield shot to rookie Denzel Boston for a touchdown in garbage time. I think Week 2 might be his last shot to prove he's still worth rostering -- that is, unless Monken stubbornly keeps rolling with him.