When it comes to the skilled trades, America is running hard just to stand still. Over the next decade, we're projected to create 600,000 net new trades jobs, but we'll need to fill roughly 17 million openings.
In any other field, 600,000 new jobs would be enviable expansion of opportunity. But it's dwarfed by what we need merely to keep today's industries staffed.
Of the roughly 1.7 million openings each year, The Burning Glass Institute’s new research with Jobs for the Future (JFF) finds that the overwhelming majority arise because workers retire or leave their trade. Against a current skilled trades workforce of 18.4 million, that's equivalent to refilling roughly one in eleven positions every year.
At that pace, in about 11 to 12 years we'll need to refill as many positions as the entire skilled trades workforce has today just to maintain capacity. And as experienced tradespeople retire, we lose not only their labor but often the mentors and supervisors who help train their successors.
The challenge is all the more daunting when you consider that the talent pipeline isn’t just thin. It’s leaky. Only 48% of those who start an apprenticeship or postsecondary trade program finish, and only 29% are still working in their field 5 years later.
Arizona's skilled trades employment has grown 23% since 2019, faster than any other state. Yet just 41% of its apprentices complete. To compensate, it’s needed to attract a net 3,700 skilled trades workers per year, essentially importing the talent that it’s unable to build. But moving people around doesn’t make more of them.
There's a lesson here for economic development. Announcing a new factory, data center, or infrastructure project is good news, but beneath needs to be a workforce plan. We need to anticipate replacement demand, improve training completion, and build the capacity to prepare new workers before projects are competing for the same limited talent.
Explore the data from our new research on behalf of the Alliance for America's Skilled Trades: https://lnkd.in/g3GavgNE.
Thanks to Burning Glass Institute colleagues Erik Leiden, Harry Carr, Luke Chen; to Maria Flynn and Molly Blankenship at JFF; to Joseph Fuller at Harvard Business School whose excellent forward to the draft frames the imperative; and to Jim Farley and Mary Culler at Ford Motor Company for their leadership in bringing urgent priority to the skilled trades. #jobs #careers #humanresources #economics #skills #skilledtrades