Economy & Policy Analysis

Inflation trajectory holds key for further rate hikes: Aditi Nayar, ICRA

Our base case pencils in the headline CPI inflation to average at 5 per cent in FY27, with risks tilted to the upside.

Monetary Policy shifts gear, lays emphasis on containing supply-side shocks

The Governor acknowledged that price pressures are increasingly extending beyond food and fuel.

One year of GST rate reset: Where is India's tax revenue coming from?

GST collections have remained resilient after the 2025 rate reset, but the recovery has been uneven, with imports driving more growth while refunds weigh on net revenue

1991 reforms: Quant analysis shows liberalisation gains are petering out

India's global percentile ranking has improved modestly since 1991, but weak per capita gains and external vulnerability remain key drags

Measure carefully: The wrong metric can distort business strategy

Business metrics can become counterproductive when underlying economics change, making it essential for leaders to periodically reassess whether measures still encourage the right behaviour

Ind-Ra lifts India's FY27 economic growth forecast by 10 bps to 6.8%

But warns El Niño, geopolitical woes may weigh on momentum

Reforms@35: India grew nine-fold, but its Asian peers grew faster

In 1991, five years into the Doi Moi reforms, Vietnam's per capita income was $141, less than half of India's. Today it is $4,829, nearly twice that of India

Datanomics: State of Delhi-Dhaka economic ties after Sheikh Hasina

Bangladesh's economic engagement shifted towards China, the US and the Netherlands after Hasina's exit, while trade and investment ties with India weakened

After economic reforms, we were no longer afraid of the world: Tarun Das

"We can no longer be happy with protectionism. We must free the MSME sector and stop harassing them with so many inspectors. If necessary, we can build a stronger venture capital ecosystem for them"

India & Indo-Pacific ascendancy: The architecture of a stabilising power

India's engagements with Japan, Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand highlight a coordinated Indo-Pacific strategy built on maritime security, supply chains and strategic autonomy

Rainfall derivatives: How Mumbai's monsoon actually got priced in

Six weeks into India's first rainfall derivative, the numbers have more to say than the launch-day press release did

The 'Indian Common Market': Rethinking growth beyond one India

India's next phase of consumption growth will be driven by treating large state economies as distinct markets, each requiring its own products, distribution strategy and consumer insight

Four charts that show where India's food inflation risks are building

Headline inflation remains under control, but food prices are showing fresh signs of pressure. Here's what the latest inflation and crop data reveal

State priorities split as outlays surge, spending patterns diverge

West Bengal led social welfare and nutrition outlay at 14.86 per cent of its budget

16th Finance Commission urges states to boost revenues, cut spending

The commission did not recommend revenue deficit grants to states or any sector-specific or state-specific grants

Sikkim tops per capita income rankings, Bihar remains poorest state

The top four - Sikkim, Goa, Delhi and Chandigarh - and the bottom four - Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Manipur - have consistently held their positions for the past 10 years

Rural women need financial confidence, not just bank account access now

Financial literacy can help rural women move beyond account access to claim rights, detect fraud and lead family finances with confidence as migration reshapes rural homes

Datanomics: Major tax receipts rose, but total mopup fell 2% in April

Despite growth in income tax, corporation tax and GST, a sharp fall in IGST and GST compensation cess dragged down April's overall central tax collections

StatsGuru: The tides and the troughs of the Modi era's economic record

As the Modi government completes 12 years, India has grown into a larger economy with lower inflation and unemployment, though external vulnerabilities persist

Datanomics: Indian economy slips to 6th spot on rupee weakness

India's GDP rose to ₹346.36 trillion in FY26, but rupee depreciation against the US dollar kept the country behind the UK and Japan in global economic rankings