Economics

A/B testing remains the standard for rolling out new features in the technology industry. Each experiment, however, consumes real traffic, engineering effort, and weeks of wall-clock time. Can AI agents—conditioned on behavioral profiles and contextual descriptions of the intervention—simulate outcomes accurately enough to vet candidate treatments before committing live traffic? We formalize this question

In this paper we propose a novel optimization framework for store shelf space planning, specifically tailored for physical stores. The framework leverages machine learning and data-driven techniques to optimize shelf space allocation, aiming to maximize both short-term and long-term business metrics such as sales and profit. Our approach consists of three key components: a geospatial space elasticity model

Despite their strong zero-shot forecasting capabilities, Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) lack mechanisms for incorporating the structured domain knowledge that practitioners need for interpretability and forecast control. Dynamic Factor Models (DFMs) provide this structure, decomposing series into interpretable, adjustable factors like trend and seasonality while capturing shared dynamics across related

Accurate demand forecasting is vital for retail supply chain efficiency, yet a persistent trust-capacity gap limits industrial production to low-capacity interpretable models that fail to capture complex market dynamics. We propose Anchored FLoE, a dual-model framework that bridges this gap by fusing high-capacity deep learning with rigorous business guardrails. The framework integrates: (1) FLoE, an ensemble

Changepoint detection algorithms identify where structural breaks occur but are conventionally used under a one-to-one mapping between detected breaks and real-world events. We show this mapping assumption is undermined by a fundamental ambiguity: the confidence interval for a detected break widens as the slope jump shrinks, so a wide interval may indicate either a mild genuine break or an approximation