After years of stagnation, New Mexico's economy is starting to grow again. But there's a problem: The working population is leaving the state, and taking its children.

More young adults and older folks are entering the state than leaving, but New Mexico's 30- to 59-year-olds, pushed by the state's sluggish economic recovery, are fleeing by the masses, taking kids with them who researchers say are unlikely to return.

Experts say the loss of these working-age residents and their children is worrisome because they are not optimistic the trend will reverse. If it doesn't, New Mexico's working age population – a huge tax base – could become so small that the state will struggle to fund its already cash-strapped government and companies will look elsewhere to expand.

"Every state in the union will have a problem with the baby boomers all going into retirement and being dependent on health care," says demographer Robert Rhatigan, associate director of the University of New Mexico's Geospatial and Population Studies. "But what New Mexico is going to be missing is young folks who are working and paying taxes. And that has a ripple effect because without those folks there, there's no incentive for employers to invest in New Mexico."

Between 2010 and 2016, about 53,000 more people moved out of New Mexico than moved in, according to U.S. Census estimates. But because there were more births than deaths, the state's population grew nearly 22,000, or 1.1 percent, in the six-year time frame.

That's far lower than the national average of 4.7 percent, and New Mexico experienced the weakest population growth in the Southwest: Neighboring Texas grew 10.8 percent, Arizona 8.4 percent and Oklahoma 4.6 percent between 2010 and 2016.

"It's not surprising to me that we're losing population," says Democratic state Sen. Mimi Stewart, noting that the out-migration trend began in 2010, when Republican Gov. Susana Martinez took office. The two have often clashed on revenue-raising measures. "We're not creating an atmosphere that makes people want to come to New Mexico through this governor's policies."

Of people who did move into the state, most were 25 to 29, or 60 or older. Rhatigan said he could not be certain why, but speculated that the state's quality of life – spurred by its low cost of living and year-round sunshine – could be a draw for these groups. People in their mid-20s could be pursuing advanced degrees at one of the state's universities or military installations, and older folks may be headed to New Mexico to retire or return to one of the state's 22 tribal lands. He also says immigration from outside the U.S. could contribute to growth in the mid-20s cohort.

New Mexico's recent population stagnancy is a first for the state – between 2000 and 2010, the state was among the fastest-growing in the U.S., increasing its population by 13 percent.

Before and during the recession of 2007 to 2009, New Mexico's unemployment rate was lower than the national average. But as the state's economy has struggled to recover as quickly as others, most of the major employers in New Mexico are facing budget cuts and constraints. Many of the state's largest employers rely on government funding, including universities, hospitals and research labs.

Martinez's plan to improve the state's economy include diversifying New Mexico's top industries and lessening the state's reliance on the federal government. The state has been hit particularly hard by federal budget cuts in recent years. She has touted tax reform and small business promotion as the way to develop a strong, independent New Mexican economy.

"Through a relentless commitment to reforms – balancing budgets, cutting taxes and streamlining regulations – we're growing and diversifying our economy, and competing for jobs and investment with neighboring states like never before," Martinez said in a statement this month. Her office did not respond to a request for comment.

But critics say the tax breaks have failed to recruit companies or bring jobs to New Mexico and have left the state with underfunded public services such as education and health care.

"This idea that cutting taxes for business is supposed to produce jobs -- we are a state where that policy has failed miserably," Stewart says, citing New Mexico's teacher shortage in recent years.

Health care and social assistance was the fastest-growing industry between 2011 and 2015, accounting for nearly 17 percent of New Mexico's total employment, according to a report released in June by the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions. But overall labor force participation rates dropped from 61 percent to 58.4 percent, well below the national average of 63.1 percent, during that time frame.

A recent uptick in the oil, natural gas and mining sector is the main reason for the state's 2.8 percent growth in gross domestic product during the first quarter of 2017, according to U.S. Department of Commerce data. Martinez credited the growth to her economic reforms, but the volatile industry, a significant source of state revenue, has been unreliable in recent years. Explosive growth between 2011 and 2015 was diminished by sharp losses in 2016, the Department of Workforce Solutions report said.

"Right now we have some skilled workers sitting on the sidelines," Rhatigan says. "So if a company invests in New Mexico, there are workers here. But as those workers continue to leave, in 15 or 20 years we will have a shortage of young folks and there will be no incentive for employers to invest in New Mexico."

In July, Martinez announced that Facebook will double its investment in a data center the tech giant is building in Los Lunas, spending about $500 billion. The project will yield up to 1,000 jobs during construction, but will employ only about 100 people upon completion.

"This is exciting news for New Mexico," Martinez said in a statement. "We're proud to have a cutting-edge high-tech company like Facebook as a partner as we move forward in diversifying New Mexico's economy."

But Rhatigan says the state needs to add hundreds of permanent jobs every week, not just temporary construction work, in order to compel people to start moving into New Mexico.

"I don't see anything on the horizon that would compel in-migration," Rhatigan says. "There would have to be significant investment in the research labs or in the private sector."

By 2024, jobs requiring a high school diploma or less are projected to grow 7.6 percent, but jobs requiring at least some college education will grow 26.9 percent, with the largest share requiring a graduate or professional degree, according to the Department of Workforce Solutions report. The educational attainment of New Mexico's labor force, however, is less than neighboring states and the U.S. overall.

Higher educational attainment rates typically correlate with higher incomes and lower unemployment and poverty rates. The median household income of $45,382 in 2015 in New Mexico was about 80 percent of the U.S. average and significantly lower than in neighboring Texas and Arizona.

"When you lose a job with somebody making $80,000 or $100,000 a year, you lose one, two, three lower-level jobs that that high paying job is supporting," Rhatigan says, adding that those high-earners are likely to leave the state if they can't find a job with comparable wages in New Mexico.

New Mexico was recently ranked as the worst state to raise a family by personal finance firm WalletHub. And in U.S. News' Best States rankings, New Mexico places 48th for education and 46th for opportunity.

Nearly 30 percent of the state's children live in poverty, about 40 percent higher than the national rate. In 2015, approximately 18 percent of New Mexicans were eligible to receive Medicaid funds and 72 percent of births in the state were financed by Medicaid, more than any other state, according to Kaiser Family Foundation data.

Though New Mexico is among the most diverse states, poverty disproportionately affects immigrants and many people of color – about one-third of African-Americans and Native Americans live in poverty, compared with about 18 percent of whites and nearly 11 percent of Asians. (In U.S. News rankings, New Mexico places 49th among states for education equality by race and 32nd for its racial gap in income.)

And while New Mexico's immigrants have higher labor force participation rates than the native-born population, they are more concentrated in lower-paying industries such as service and construction, according to the New Mexico Fiscal Policy Project.

One in 10 New Mexicans was born outside the U.S., and more than one-third of New Mexicans speak a language other than English at home. Most immigrants are from Latin America, though the state's share of Asian immigrants is rising. About one-quarter of the immigrants who have arrived since 2010 are Asian, according to U.S. Census estimates.

Despite an increase in international migration to New Mexico, Rhatigan says he remains doubtful the state will manage to curb its pattern of out-migration among the working age population. And because the state's aging population has offset much of the natural increase in population, his department does not anticipate substantial growth in New Mexico in coming years.

"We had projected about 2.35 million people by 2020," Rhatigan says. "In 2016, we had revised that to slightly less than 2.2 million. I now think that 2.2 million is too high, and that by 2020 it's just going to be just barely over 2.1 million."

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