Russia Election polls, voting intention polls and current polling numbers

Russia's economy is stagnating. While the government has nudged its GDP growth forecast for 2026 up to a modest 0.6 percent, Western analysts are even less optimistic, projecting just 0.5 percent. Industrial output shrank for the second consecutive month in September, and export orders are falling at their fastest pace since May 2022. At the same time, the cost of living is rising noticeably: annual inflation hit 6.3 percent in August, while ordinary Russians expect prices to climb by an alarming 14.2 percent. Policy decisions are adding to the pressure — among them the sweeping 2025 tax reform that raised the top income tax rate to 22 percent, as well as the central bank's interest rate policy, both of which are weighing on the economy. On top of that, utility and housing costs are set to increase from October 1st, which will push inflation even higher. A fresh wave of U.S. sanctions targeting Russian energy exports poses an additional threat to government revenues. This combination of sluggish growth, persistent inflation, and heavy state intervention is increasingly shaping the economic reality — and everyday life — of people across Russia.

Russia's migration policy is undergoing a dramatic overhaul. Since October 1, 2026, the Federal Tax Service has been sending the income data of foreign nationals directly to the Interior Ministry, tying residency status closely to financial means. This measure is part of a new migration framework for 2026–2030 that puts national security and identity front and center. Stricter medical checks and sharply higher fees for residence permits and citizenship are adding to the pressure. On the international stage, accusations are growing that Russia is using migration as a hybrid weapon at EU borders — and that it is deliberately trying to strip Ukrainian children of their identity.

Russia's geopolitical position is tightening: new US sanctions are targeting Moscow's financial and energy trade, while the EU is imposing fresh punitive measures following the Duma elections and debating extensions of existing ones. At the same time, Russia is stepping up its attacks on Ukraine — particularly on Kyiv — and rattling NATO with nuclear rhetoric over Kaliningrad. This aggressive posture, combined with the ongoing war, is eroding Russia's influence in regions it has long considered its backyard, such as the South Caucasus. At the root of all this is Russia's continued war of aggression against Ukraine and the West's resulting resolve to isolate Moscow economically and diplomatically.

Russia's political landscape presents a controlled stability that conceals deep fractures beneath the surface. The recent Duma elections in September 2026 officially cemented the ruling party United Russia's grip on power — even though pre-election polls had shown declining approval ratings for President Putin, driven by rising inflation and growing internet restrictions. The root cause is a system of deliberate repression: through censorship laws and the criminalization of so-called 'fake news,' the Kremlin silences any dissenting voice, maintaining control while masking the country's growing undercurrent of discontent.

Russia's energy and infrastructure policy is currently undergoing a profound transformation, driven primarily by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Western sanctions. The 'energy war' is escalating: Ukraine is stepping up drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, including a significant hit near Moscow on September 26 that dealt a serious blow to production capacity. In direct response, President Putin announced on October 1 that Russia would not resume diesel exports to global markets until sanctions are lifted. These military and economic tensions are forcing a massive reallocation of public funds. Russia is planning record military spending for 2027, while investment in civilian infrastructure such as road construction, as well as social, education, and healthcare services, is being slashed dramatically. At the same time, the Kremlin is pushing ahead with the development of Arctic energy reserves — such as the Vostok oil project — to secure new export routes and revenue streams. This is a calculated strategic move in response to global disruptions and EU plans to halt Russian liquefied natural gas imports before winter. The underlying political cause of these developments is the escalation of the war in Ukraine, which is forcing Russia to radically reshape its economic strategy and budget priorities in order to finance its military operations and cushion the impact of sanctions.

Russia is heading toward growing social tensions. Moscow is currently planning to slash social spending by seven percent in 2027, with cuts hitting pensions, veterans' benefits, maternity support, and budgets for education and healthcare. At the same time, defense spending is set to surge by 27 percent. This deliberate prioritization of the military over the civilian population is piling pressure on every generation. The ongoing war, rising casualty figures, emigration, and a deep-seated economic crisis are already straining social cohesion. Critics argue that the government is turning a blind eye to the country's demographic challenges and rising cost of living — forces that are slowly eroding the fabric of Russian society.

Russia's youth are feeling the full weight of the war economy: a new year-round military draft targeting 18- to 30-year-olds recruits 261,000 young men annually, while universities are required to meet quotas for military recruitment. At the same time, the state is sharply cutting social spending on education and healthcare to fund record military budgets. These Kremlin priorities — military expansion and keeping the war going — are fundamentally reshaping the lives of young Russians. The job market does offer low unemployment, but skilled professionals can barely find positions outside the war-related sector, creating a serious shortage of qualified workers. Despite heavy censorship, this is fueling growing discontent.

Russian families with at least two children have been benefiting from a new "family tax payment" since June 2026, which cuts their income tax rate from 13 to 6 percent. This measure, complemented by inflation-linked increases to more than 40 social benefits starting in February 2026, is designed to cushion the country's demographic decline. The Kremlin is responding to a shrinking population and a birth rate of just 1.47. At the same time, the war economy is consuming an ever-growing share of resources, putting other social priorities under strain and leaving the financial situation of many families precarious.

Russia's retirees are facing an increasingly precarious reality. For 2027, the government is planning to cut social spending, including pensions, by seven percent. This drastic measure is a direct consequence of Moscow's decision to massively increase defense spending — by 27 percent for 2027, the highest figure since the war began in 2022. At the same time, rapidly rising prices are eating into purchasing power: household inflation expectations climbed to 14.2 percent in September 2026. The Ministry of Economic Development revised its official inflation forecast for the end of 2026 upward to 6.8 percent, while independent observers often consider even these numbers too low. Everyday staples like cheese, sausage, sugar, and meat are becoming noticeably more expensive. The average monthly pension in 2026 stands at an estimated 240 euros — an amount many consider barely enough to live on. A survey found that Russians themselves regard around 535 euros per month as adequate. The pension reform, which is gradually raising the retirement age to 65 for men and 60 for women, adds another layer of hardship. With male life expectancy averaging just 68.3 years, many men will barely get to enjoy any retirement at all. More than a fifth of Russian pensioners — around 8.4 million people — continue working to supplement their income, a number that grew by 621,000 over the past year alone. Demographic pressures, compounded by the loss of young men in the war, are putting additional strain on the pension system.

Russian households' inflation expectations climbed to 14.2% in September, while the latest tax reform pushed the top income tax rate up to 22%. This double burden is noticeably squeezing the purchasing power of ordinary middle-class families. At the same time, a wave of insolvencies is sweeping through the business landscape: in just the first five months of this year, 467,000 companies closed their doors. High interest rates of 14% and state-driven war spending are fueling an artificial economic growth that creates no real prosperity — instead, it is burdening the national budget with a deficit of 60.3 billion euros. A severe shortage of workers, made worse by military mobilization and emigration, is adding further strain to an already precarious situation.

Russia's entrepreneurs and self-employed workers are under enormous pressure. Since January 2026, VAT has risen to 22 percent, alongside a top income tax rate of the same level. This fiscal tightening — part of a sweeping tax reform passed in 2025 — is designed to plug a ballooning budget deficit that exceeded 60 billion euros in the first eight months of 2026. The government is trying to prop up its war economy while the civilian economy stagnates and the central bank keeps its key interest rate at a steep 14 percent. The result: a record surge in so-called "grey" capital flight, which shot up by 770 percent in the second quarter of 2026 to 12.2 billion US dollars — a clear signal of deep distrust, driving wealthy Russians to move their assets abroad.

Russia's government is dramatically intensifying its campaign against sexual minorities. Between March and May 2026, Russian courts across the country branded nine more LGBTQ+ organizations as "extremist" — a designation that directly criminalizes their founders and exposes them to lengthy prison sentences. This latest wave of repression builds on a Supreme Court ruling from November 2023 that broadly classified the "international LGBT movement" as extremist. The political driving force is Moscow's determination to cement "traditional values" and suppress any form of dissent or non-conforming lifestyle — a push that has grown sharper since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The legal framework rests on two pillars: a "propaganda law" expanded in 2022 that bans any positive portrayal of non-traditional relationships, and a 2023 prohibition on gender-affirming procedures. The "extremist" label now turns even the display of rainbow symbols or private social media posts into a punishable offense, carrying fines, imprisonment, or the freezing of bank accounts. On the ground, people are living through a suffocating atmosphere of fear and self-censorship that poses a serious threat to both their livelihoods and their personal freedom.

Since October 1, 2026, Russia's tax authority has been sending foreign nationals' income data directly to the Interior Ministry. This new rule paves the way for the cancellation of residence and work permits starting January 2027, if earnings fall below the regional minimum subsistence level. At the same time, since September 1, 2026, immigrants and expats are required to complete a comprehensive medical examination within 30 days of entry, down from the previous 90-day window. These tighter rules are part of a sweeping national migration concept for 2026–2030, aimed at radically tightening control over migration processes through digitalization — with the stated goals of improving security and ensuring that newcomers are financially self-sufficient.