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Automated trading bot for Polymarket Bitcoin Up or Down 5-minute markets that runs on NautilusTrader, fuses multiple market microstructure signals, and gates entries with an XGBoost edge model vs Polymarket price

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Polymarket 5-Min Trading Bot

Overview

This is an automated trading bot for Polymarket Bitcoin Up or Down 5-minute markets. It runs on NautilusTrader, fuses multiple market microstructure signals, and gates entries with an XGBoost edge model vs Polymarket price.


What it trades

Polymarket Bitcoin Up or Down 5-minute markets:

  • Slug pattern: btc-updown-5m-{unix_start}
  • Window length: 300 seconds (UTC floor: (ts // 300) * 300)
  • Default entry window: seconds 180–270 of each market (late-window style)

Features

  • Multi-signal fusion + ML edge gate tuned for 5-min BTC Up/Down markets
  • Risk controls (size caps, TP/SL, spread filter, anti-chase, one bet per window)
  • Simulation / live modes + terminal UI dashboard
  • Paper trade logs & Grafana metrics

Quick Start

Requires: Python 3.14+ · Redis · Polymarket API keys (for live)

git clone https://github.com/your_name/polymarket-5min-crypto-trading-bot.git
cd polymarket-5min-crypto-trading-bot

python -m venv venv
# Windows: venv\Scripts\activate
# macOS/Linux: source venv/bin/activate

pip install -r requirements.txt
cp .env.example .env   # add your keys
python main.py --test-mode      # fast paper loop
python main.py --simulation     # 5-min paper
python supervisor.py --live     # real money

Inspect paper trades:

python scripts/view_trades.py

Config (essentials)

Parameter Default Notes
MARKET_BUY_USD 1.00 USD per order
ENABLE_STOP_LOSS false Early SL exit
TAKE_PROFIT_PCT 0.40 Take profit fraction
MIN_ENTRY_PRICE / MAX_ENTRY_PRICE 0.25 / 0.75 Entry band
TRADE_WINDOW_SEC_START / END 180 / 270 Entry window inside each 5-min market
ENTRY_COOLDOWN_SEC 30 Min seconds between entries
MAX_TRADES_PER_MARKET 1 One bet per 5-min window
MIN_ML_EDGE 0.10 Min ML vs market gap

Full list: .env.example


Public vs Premium

This repo is the public version — open source so you can test the stack, risk logic, and PnL tracking yourself.
Premium is for traders who want production performance after validating the public bot.

Public (this repo) Premium
Purpose Test · learn · verify Live capital · best results
Risk & PnL Included partially Included fully + tuned
Training data General / warming model 200,000+ trades
Win rate Not claimed (educational) 98.8%+
Proof You run sim / live yourself Shared in private meeting
Access Only BTC BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE, XRP, BNB

Flow: run public → validate results → talk collaboration

Polymarket account proof is shared only on a call — not posted publicly.

→ Collaboration / proof: Telegram @woaifacai888


Links

Start here Quick Start
Public vs Premium Table
Contact Telegram · X
Phase tests python scripts/test_data_sources.py test → … → test_execution.py

Disclaimer

Trading involves substantial risk of loss. This software is for education and research. No profit is guaranteed. Past performance ≠ future results. Start in simulation; only use capital you can afford to lose.


License

MIT — see LICENSE

About

Automated trading bot for Polymarket Bitcoin Up or Down 5-minute markets that runs on NautilusTrader, fuses multiple market microstructure signals, and gates entries with an XGBoost edge model vs Polymarket price

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58 stars

Watchers

1 watching

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