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rav-lad/README.md

Hi, I'm Arno Vifian


About Me

  • Passionate about machine learning, time series, causal inference, and applied data analysis
  • Open source projects focused on data science, modeling, and forecasting

1. French Electricity Spot Price Forecasting β€” MLOps Pipeline

πŸ”— GitHub: https://github.com/rav-lad/energy-demand-forecast

A production-grade forecasting system trained on 28,405 hourly observations (Jan 2023 – Apr 2026) of French electricity prices, demand, and weather data.

Highlights

  • Designed a full MLOps pipeline covering data ingestion, feature engineering, model training, inference, and monitoring
  • Implemented strict walk-forward validation over ~800 days (~19,000 prediction hours) to eliminate look-ahead bias
  • Engineered features combining price lags (24h, 48h, 168h), net load, renewable penetration, weather, and calendar seasonality
  • Achieved MAE = 13.41 EUR/MWh and RΒ² = 0.831 with XGBoost, outperforming the Ridge baseline (MAE = 14.77, RΒ² = 0.806)
  • Reached 78.5% direction accuracy with Ridge Regression as a fast, robust production baseline
  • Built probabilistic forecasts with LightGBM quantile regression, producing P10/P50/P90 intervals with 63% empirical coverage and 33 EUR/MWh average interval width
  • Deployed a fully containerised architecture with 6 Docker services, GitHub Actions CI/CD, and a 4-page Streamlit monitoring dashboard
  • Added drift monitoring and retraining alerts using PSI > 0.25 or 20% degradation in 30-day MAE

Local Agents with Ollama Ollama

1. Scoring Agent β€” Real-Time Market Intelligence System

πŸ”— GitHub: https://github.com/rav-lad/scoring-agent

A local-first multi-agent system designed to detect abnormal and potentially informed market activity in real time across crypto markets.

The system combines statistical anomaly detection, behavioral wallet profiling, and agent-based reasoning to produce a 0–100 suspicion score, along with structured investigation outputs.

Highlights

  • Built a fully local architecture powered by Ollama, ensuring privacy and low-latency inference
  • Designed a multi-stage pipeline: anomaly filtering β†’ agent investigation β†’ deterministic scoring
  • Monitors multiple data sources: on-chain flows, mempool activity, and derivatives markets
  • Implements specialized agents for security checks, behavioral analysis, macro context, and quant validation
  • Generates structured reports and real-time webhook alerts for high-risk events
  • Includes a Rust-based terminal dashboard (TUI) for live monitoring and system observability

2. Agent Orchestrator β€” Multi-Agent Research System

πŸ”— Orchestrator: https://github.com/rav-lad/agent-orchestrator
πŸ”— News Agent: https://github.com/rav-lad/news-analyst
πŸ”— Macro Agent: https://github.com/rav-lad/macro-analyst

A modular local-first orchestration framework that coordinates specialized AI agents to produce structured, decision-ready analysis.

The system integrates domain-specific agents (news and macro) into a unified research pipeline, enabling consistent and reproducible outputs.

Highlights

  • Designed a multi-agent orchestration layer to coordinate agent execution and workflows
  • Integrates specialized agents:
    • News Analyst β†’ extracts key events, narratives, and market-relevant signals from news flows
    • Macro Analyst β†’ provides macroeconomic context and regime-level interpretation
  • Produces structured analytical outputs usable in systematic workflows
  • Focus on reproducibility, modularity, and extensibility
  • Fully local via Ollama, ensuring privacy and full control over models and data

Kaggle Competitions

πŸ”— Repository: https://github.com/rav-lad/Kaggle-

A collection of my Kaggle competition work, including feature engineering, model development, and evaluation pipelines across various datasets and problem types.

Competition Link Rank / Score
Binary Classification with a Bank Dataset https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/playground-series-s5e8 Top 4% (129/3365)
Predicting the Beats-per-Minute of Songs https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/playground-series-s5e9 Top 7% (177/2581)
Exploring Mental Health Data https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/playground-series-s4e11 Top 8% (223/2685)

Skills

Languages

Python R SQL


Data Science & Analysis

scikit-learn PyTorch XGBoost LightGBM Stata Excel Microsoft 365 Google Colab


Cloud & AWS Ecosystem

AWS SageMaker Bedrock Glue Athena Lambda EC2 S3

AWS Certified AI Practitioner


Tools & Development

Git GitHub VS Code Docker FastAPI PostgreSQL Redis Nginx


GenAI, APIs & Visualization

Hugging Face Streamlit

Other

French (native), English (fluent)

Let's Connect!


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Thanks for visiting!


Credit: Inspired by Abdul Khalid
Last Edited on: 04.04.2026

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