Next French legislative election
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No later than June 2029
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All 577 seats in the National Assembly 289 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in France by June 2029 to elect all 577 members of the 18th National Assembly of the Fifth French Republic.[1] A snap election remains possible at any time under Article 12 of the Constitution.
Background
[edit]2024–2025
[edit]The 2024 elections resulted in a hung parliament and four minority governments led by Michel Barnier, François Bayrou, and Sébastien Lecornu, all being appointed by Emmanuel Macron. Both Barnier and Bayrou's governments collapsed as a result of confidence votes. Lecornu initially resigned 14 hours after presenting his first government, before being reappointed by Macron four days later. The absence of a stable majority means the government constantly lives under the threat of a vote of no confidence as well as losing parliamentary votes.[2][3][4]
Lecornu II
[edit]Six days after formation, the second Lecornu government survived its first vote of no-confidence, which only got 271 votes instead of the 289 necessary. Successive no-confidence votes in January 2026 were also survived.[5]
With the resolution of the 2024–2025 French political crisis, polling agencies shifted their focus away from legislative voting intentions, instead tracking the 2026 French municipal elections and the 2027 French presidential election.[6]
Whether snap elections will be called remains a topic of ongoing speculation. After the 2027 presidential election, it could make sense strategically for the incoming president to dissolve the Assembly after taking office, either to avoid a gridlocked government or to ride their political momentum to secure more seats in the Assembly. This would place the next legislative vote in or around June 2027. Conversely, a snap election could be called a few weeks before the presidential election to prevent snap elections from being called in the following 12 months, per constitutional limits. The President has reportedly considered doing this to complicate the rise of National Rally (RN) and La France Insoumise (LFI), however has publicly rejected this strategy.[7][8]
Electoral system
[edit]The 577 members of the National Assembly, known as deputies, are elected for five years by a two-round system in single-member constituencies. A candidate who receives an absolute majority of valid votes and a vote total greater than 25% of the registered electorate is elected in the first round. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates plus any other candidate who received a vote total greater than 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected.[9]
Opinion polls
[edit]
| Polling firm | Date | Sample size | EXG | NFP | DVG | ECO | ENS | DVC | LR | DVD | DLF | RN and allies | REC | Others | Lead | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LFI | LE | PCF | PS | UDR | RN | ||||||||||||||
| N/a | 10 Oct 2025 | Second Lecornu government formed | |||||||||||||||||
| Ifop[10] | 7–8 Oct 2025 | 1,386 | 1% | 24% | 4% | – | 14% | – | 12% | 3% | 1% | 35% | 4% | 2% | 11% | ||||
| 1% | 8% | 19% | 3% | – | 13% | – | 11% | 2.5% | 1% | 36% | 3.5% | 2% | 19% | ||||||
| 1% | 10% | 17% | 3% | – | 13% | – | 11% | 2% | 1% | 36% | 4% | 2% | 19% | ||||||
| OpinionWay[11] | 6–7 Oct 2025 | 1,012 | 2% | 24% | – | – | 16% | – | 13% | – | – | 34% | 5% | 6% | 10% | ||||
| 2% | 13% | 13% | – | – | 15% | – | 13% | – | – | 33% | 5% | 6% | 18% | ||||||
| 2% | 9% | 18% | – | – | 14% | – | 12% | – | – | 33% | 6% | 6% | 15% | ||||||
| N/a | 5–6 Oct 2025 | First Lecornu government dissolved | |||||||||||||||||
| N/a | 8–9 Sep 2025 | Bayrou government dissolved; First Lecornu government formed | |||||||||||||||||
| Ifop[12] | 5–8 Sep 2025 | 1,089 | 1.5% | 24% | 5% | – | 14% | – | 12% | 2.5% | 2% | 34% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 10% | ||||
| 1% | 9% | 19% | 3% | – | 14% | – | 12% | 2% | 2% | 33% | 4% | 1% | 14% | ||||||
| Cluster17[13] | 5–7 Sep 2025 | 1,133 | 1% | 25% | 5.5% | – | 14% | 1% | 13% | 2% | 1.5% | 29% | 4% | 4% | 4% | ||||
| 1% | 11% | 16% | 3% | – | 13% | 1% | 13% | 2% | 1.5% | 29% | 4.5% | 5% | 13% | ||||||
| 1% | 14% | 14% | 3% | – | 12.5% | 1% | 12% | 3% | 1.5% | 29% | 4% | 5% | 15% | ||||||
| Harris[14] | 4–5 Sep 2025 | 2,017 | 1% | 26% | 6% | – | 16% | – | 10% | – | – | 33% | 5% | 3% | 7% | ||||
| 1% | 10% | 19% | 4% | – | 16% | – | 10% | – | – | 33% | 5% | 3% | 14% | ||||||
| Ifop[15] | 29 Aug–1 Sep 2025 | 1,369 | 1% | 25% | 5% | – | 15% | – | 13% | 2% | 1.5% | 33% | 4% | 0.5% | 8% | ||||
| 1% | 11% | 15% | 4% | – | 15% | – | 13% | 3% | 1.5% | 32% | 3.5% | 1% | 17% | ||||||
| Elabe[16] | 28–29 Aug 2025 | 1,563 | 2% | 23.5% | 6.5% | – | 14% | – | 10.5% | 2.5% | – | 31.5% | 5% | 4.5% | 8.0% | ||||
| 1.5% | 10% | 16.5% | 5% | – | 13.5% | – | 10.5% | 3% | – | 31% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 14.5% | ||||||
| Elabe[17] | 3–5 Jun 2025 | 1,496 | 2% | 21% | 6.5% | – | 15.5% | – | 10% | 3.5% | – | 32.5% | 3% | 6% | 11.5% | ||||
| 1.5% | 10% | 16% | 3.5% | – | 15.5% | – | 10.5% | 3% | – | 33% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 17% | ||||||
| Ifop[18] | 3–4 Jun 2025 | 1,385 | 0.5% | 21% | 7% | – | 18% | – | 11% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 35% | 2% | 1.5% | 14% | |||
| 1% | 11% | 13% | 4% | – | 18% | – | 11% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 35% | 2% | 1.5% | 17% | |||||
| 0.5% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 12% | 3% | – | 16% | – | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0.5% | 34% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 18% | |||
| Ifop[19] | 5–6 Feb 2025 | 1,377 | 1% | 14% | 13% | 2% | – | 15% | – | 13% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 35% | 3% | 1% | 21% | ||
| 1.5% | 8% | 19% | 2.5% | – | 15% | – | 12% | 1% | 1% | 0.5% | 35% | 3% | 1.5% | 16% | |||||
| N/a | 4–13 Dec 2024 | Barnier government dissolved; Bayrou government formed | |||||||||||||||||
| N/a | 5 Sep 2024 | Beginning of French political crisis: Attal government dissolved; Barnier government formed | |||||||||||||||||
| 2024 Election Results[20] | 30 Jun 2024 | N/a | 1.14% | 28.21% | 1.57% | 0.57% | 21.28% | 1.22% | 6.57% | 3.60% | 0.28% | 3.96% | 29.26% | 0.75% | 1.60% | 1.05% | |||
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ↑ "French Legislative Election, 2029". PoliGlobe.
- ↑ Dupont, Laureline (26 June 2024). "Quel gouvernement après le 7 juillet ? Les trois scénarios secrets sur la table de Macron". L'Express. Archived from the original on 29 June 2024. Retrieved 30 June 2024.
- ↑ "What Do France's Surprise Election Results Mean for the Far Right? | Council on Foreign Relations". www.cfr.org. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
... to keep the government functioning until July 2025, the next time that general elections can be held.
- ↑ "National Rally bets on early election". Brussels Signal. 7 October 2024. Retrieved 23 October 2024.
- ↑ Pineau, Elizabeth; Melander, Ingrid (14 January 2026). "French government survives no-confidence votes, now faces another budget battle". Reuters. Retrieved 14 January 2026.
- ↑ "Notices publiées". commission-des-sondages.fr (in French). Commission des sondages. Retrieved 26 September 2026.
- ↑ "Nouvelle dissolution avant la présidentielle 2027 : une « instrumentalisation » de la Constitution que rien n'interdit". Public Sénat (in French). 2024. Retrieved 26 September 2026.
- ↑ "Pourquoi Emmanuel Macron refuse une dissolution de l'Assemblée nationale avant la présidentielle de 2027". Parlons Politique (in French). 24 September 2026. Retrieved 26 September 2026.
- ↑ "Elections: France National Assembly 2017 (first round)". Election Guide. International Foundation for Electoral Systems. 11 June 2017. Archived from the original on 15 August 2020. Retrieved 16 June 2022.
- ↑ "Les intentions de vote en cas d'élections législatives" (PDF). Ifop (in French). pp. 5, 6, 11, 16. Retrieved 9 October 2025.
- ↑ "Les intentions de vote aux élections législatives" (PDF). OpinionWay (in French). pp. 6, 7, 10, 13. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 October 2025. Retrieved 8 October 2025.
- ↑ "Les intentions de vote en cas d'élections législatives" (PDF). Ifop (in French). pp. 5, 6, 10. Retrieved 9 September 2025.
- ↑ "Intentions de vote aux élections législatives" (PDF). Ifop (in French). pp. 5, 9, 13. Retrieved 10 September 2025.
- ↑ "SONDAGE - Législatives : le RN largement en tête devant la gauche en cas de nouvelle dissolution, les macronistes en grande difficulté". Challenges (in French). Retrieved 7 September 2025.
- ↑ "Les intentions de vote en cas d'élections législatives" (PDF). Ifop (in French). pp. 6, 10. Retrieved 2 September 2025.
- ↑ "Les Français et les élections législatives" (PDF). Elabe (in French). pp. 7, 10. Retrieved 30 August 2025.
- ↑ "Les Français et les élections législatives" (PDF). Elabe (in French). pp. 7–8. Retrieved 30 August 2025.
- ↑ "Le regard des Français sur la dissolution du 9 juin 2024 : retour sur l'évènement et perspectives législatives en cas de nouvelles élections" (PDF). Ifop (in French). p. 27. Retrieved 6 June 2025.
- ↑ "Current election polls from Ifop" (PDF). Current election polls from Ifop. Retrieved 25 March 2025.
- ↑ https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html Ministry of the Interior
