Anticipatory action

Anticipatory action is a form of humanitarian assistance that aims to save lives before a natural hazard (or other type of hazard) occurs or its impacts fully unfold. It is part of the disaster risk management cycle, bridging a critical gap between disaster preparedness and disaster response.

While anticipatory action takes different forms, there are common parameters to this approach:

• The preventive measures (the actions) are taken before a hazard occurs, or before its worst effects take place.
• The objective is to reduce the humanitarian impacts of forecastable hazards.
• The actions are taken based on forecasts or analysis of when and where a hazard will happen.

In 2025 anticipatory actions were implemented in 54 countries and for 17 types of hazards, with many more countries developing frameworks for different hazards. These actions reached over 9.6 million people and were supported by financing worth US$120m.

Overview

Different countries and organizations take different approaches to anticipatory action. However, experience to date indicates that it works best when several core elements are agreed in advance, namely:

• the threshold, or 'trigger', used to activate the actions; for many hazards, this will be a forecast or other form of monitoring data (e.g., rising river levels to indicate a likelihood of floods)
• the actions that will be taken ahead of the hazard to reduce the risks to people in areas forecast to be affected
• the amount and source of financing for the actions; if agreed in advance, this can be released rapidly, allowing the actions to be carried out before a hazard's impacts are felt.

By acting ahead of a hazard, based on a forecast, it is possible to reduce the humanitarian needs caused by the hazard, leading to a reduced overall impact. However, establishing these elements ahead of a hazard requires funding, time, resources and collaboration across sectors and between partners. Ideally, the process of setting up an anticipatory action system or framework should include stakeholders from the humanitarian and development sectors. For weather- and climate-related hazards, involvement by hydrometeorological services and/or the climate sector is also necessary.

Financing

Theoretically, any financing for disaster management could be pre-arranged to support anticipatory action. To date, however, the majority of 'activations' – when a trigger threshold is reached, the framework is activated and the pre-agreed anticipatory actions are implemented – have been financed from three sources: the UN's Central Emergency Response Fund, the IFRC's Disaster Response Emergency Fund, and Start Network's Start Fund.

As more organizations include anticipatory action in their work, more diverse funding sources will be needed; the funding available for anticipatory action frameworks increased in 2023, but still comprised just 0.7% of total international humanitarian assistance in 2024.

Benefits

Benefits of anticipatory action include the fact that it helps to preserve people's dignity, provides value for money, and protects wider development gains. It can also contribute to the broader sustainability of the humanitarian system by reducing humanitarian needs after a hazard and thereby saving costs.

There are also sector-specific benefits. For example, an impact evaluation by the World Food Programme, of anticipatory actions ahead of floods in Nepal in 2022, indicated an overall net gain in food security for people targeted by the actions, as well as positive impacts on the coping strategies they used and their psychological wellbeing.

Criticisms

Despite its positive impacts, there have been notable criticisms of anticipatory action:

• It is sometimes considered to be too technical, due to its dependence on forecasts or other scientific information; there are concerns about whether it is feasible to implement this approach in certain countries and contexts, where such data may not be consistently available.
• The limited financing available means that, in many countries, not everyone at risk from a hazard is covered by the frameworks or systems in place.

These and other criticisms have been aired during events focused on this approach, such as the annual dialogue platforms on anticipatory action.

History of anticipatory action and the Start Ready Eastern Samar Consortium in the Philippines

Communities have been preparing for weather-related hazards, including through the use of forecasts (whether scientific or traditional), for centuries. However, the use of forecasts to trigger financing for humanitarian actions began in 2013, when the concept of forecast-based financing was conceptualized by humanitarian actors. In 2015, the German Federal Foreign Office financed pilot projects in Togo and Uganda to test this principle, with the focusing being acting ahead of floods. The World Food Programme also launched its initial projects that year, in Bangladesh, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Nepal and the Philippines.

Since then, a number of humanitarian organizations and non-governmental organizations have begun to implement this approach (which quickly became known as 'anticipatory action'), in more countries and for an increasing number of weather- and climate-related hazards. In 2024, at least 295 organizations and government ministries were involved in anticipatory action.

Since 2020, there have been targeted efforts among humanitarian actors to involve governments in anticipatory action. This has led to increasing efforts to formalize anticipatory action as a disaster management approach. In 2024, the 'State of Imminent Disaster' was formally introduced in the Philippines, which allows the application of preventive actions before the striking of natural disasters, based on risk assessments by agencies such as the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

Another development in recent years has been projects that implement anticipatory actions ahead of non-weather events, such as disease outbreaks and epidemics, while research is under way to explore the feasibility of this approach to mitigate the impacts of livestock diseases, locust swarms and population movement/displacement.

Start Ready Eastern Samar Consortium (Philippines)

The Start Ready Eastern Samar Consortium is a humanitarian partnership working to strengthen anticipatory action, disaster preparedness and emergency response in Eastern Samar, Philippines, through the Start Ready disaster risk financing mechanism of the Start Network. The consortium is led by Humanity & Inclusion (HI) and composed of Humanity & Inclusion, Save the Children Philippines (SCP), Caritas Borongan Inc. (CBI), and COPE Inc. Eastern Visayas.

The consortium’s work focuses on connecting disaster-risk information, preparedness, pre-arranged financing and humanitarian action with locally informed decision-making, particularly in communities exposed to tropical cyclones, flooding and related hazards.

Country and disaster-risk context

The Philippines is an archipelagic country in Southeast Asia that is highly exposed to natural hazards. Tropical cyclones occur frequently and can generate secondary hazards including flooding, flash floods and landslides. Humanity & Inclusion identifies disaster preparedness and the resilience of vulnerable communities as important areas of its work in the Philippines, including attention to people with disabilities and other groups that may face heightened risks during disasters.

This national risk context is particularly relevant to Eastern Samar, a province exposed to recurrent tropical cyclones and located along the country’s eastern seaboard. Its coastal and island communities can experience disruption to livelihoods, infrastructure and access to essential services following severe weather events.

Start Ready and Eastern Samar

Start Ready is a disaster risk financing mechanism of the Start Network that uses pre-arranged financing, risk information, forecasting and predefined decision processes to support anticipatory and early action.

Eastern Samar has been included in the Philippines cyclone risk-financing model since Risk Pool 1 (RP1). Start Network’s RP1 documentation identifies Eastern Samar, Cagayan and Surigao del Norte within the Philippines cyclone model. [18]

Eastern Samar remained within the Philippines cyclone model under Risk Pool 2 (RP2). The RP2 activation record identifies Eastern Samar among the areas covered and records the participation of Humanity & Inclusion and Philippine humanitarian partners.

Under Risk Pool 3 (RP3), Eastern Samar continued to form part of the Philippines cyclone risk-financing arrangement. The province should not be described as having a separate Eastern Samar country-programme activation under RP3; rather, it remained within the wider Philippines cyclone model.

The successive risk pools provided an institutional framework through which disaster-risk financing, forecasting, preparedness and early-response planning could be connected to humanitarian action in Eastern Samar.

Typhoon Tino emergency response activation

A significant documented milestone for the Eastern Samar Consortium occurred following Typhoon Tino (international name Kalmaegi) in November 2025.

On 6 November 2025, Humanity & Inclusion Philippines announced that the Start Ready Eastern Samar Consortium had officially activated its emergency response following the impact of Typhoon Tino in Region VIII. The announcement reported that more than 29,000 families had been affected, with the number expected to increase.

The announcement described heavy rainfall, severe flooding and strong winds that caused damage to homes and livelihoods and disrupted access to essential services, including food, education and healthcare.

The activated response included:

* multi-purpose cash assistance;

* awareness sessions on gender-based violence (GBV) and child protection;

* water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) support; and

* education-in-emergencies (EiE) support.

The announcement identified the Start Ready project as supported by the Start Network and implemented in Eastern Samar by DCSA-JP/Caritas Borongan Inc., COPE Inc. Eastern Visayas, Save the Children Philippines, and Humanity & Inclusion.

The Tino activation provides direct documentation of the consortium operating as a defined partnership and translating the Start Ready framework into a coordinated, multi-sector humanitarian response.

The Eastern Samar Consortium

The Start Ready Eastern Samar Consortium is led by Humanity & Inclusion (HI) and brings together:

* Humanity & Inclusion (HI) – lead organisation

* Save the Children Philippines (SCP)

* Caritas Borongan Inc. (CBI)

* COPE Inc. Eastern Visayas

The consortium provides a partnership structure for anticipatory action, preparedness and emergency response in Eastern Samar. Its work includes contingency planning, risk-informed decision-making, beneficiary identification and validation, preparedness, operational readiness and coordination with local government and community stakeholders.

The partnership combines the capacities of international and Philippine humanitarian organisations while maintaining a focus on locally informed action.

Borongan City and Guiuan

Borongan City, the provincial capital of Eastern Samar, is an important setting for the development of anticipatory-action and disaster-risk financing arrangements. Start Network documentation has described engagement between Start Ready and the Borongan City local government and the development of mechanisms for coordinating anticipatory action and mobilising resources ahead of tropical-cyclone impacts.

Guiuan is another important geographic context for the consortium because of its exposure to tropical cyclones and its coastal and island communities, including Homonhon and Suluan.

The two locations provide important local contexts for strengthening the connection between risk information, preparedness, anticipatory action, local decision-making and emergency response.

Inclusive and locally informed anticipatory action

The consortium’s approach connects risk information and pre-arranged financing with local decision-making and community-level preparedness.

Particular attention is given to people who may face heightened risks during disasters, including persons with disabilities, older people, women and children. This emphasis is consistent with Humanity & Inclusion’s wider work in the Philippines to strengthen disaster preparedness and ensure that vulnerable people, including persons with disabilities, are considered in disaster-risk reduction and humanitarian response.

The consortium’s response to Typhoon Tino demonstrates how this approach can translate into a multi-sector package combining cash assistance, protection, WASH and education-in-emergencies interventions.

Role of Start Network and Start Ready

The Start Network provides the broader institutional and financing framework through the Start Ready programme.

Within this framework, the Start Ready Eastern Samar Consortium provides the partnership structure for the Eastern Samar operation. Humanity & Inclusion leads the consortium, together with Save the Children Philippines, Caritas Borongan Inc. and COPE Inc. Eastern Visayas.

The distinction is therefore between the Start Ready programme and its disaster risk financing framework, supported through the Start Network, and the Eastern Samar Consortium, which organises and implements the partnership’s work in the province.

Development of anticipatory action in Eastern Samar

The development of Start Ready in Eastern Samar represents a progression from disaster-risk financing and forecast-based preparedness toward more locally coordinated anticipatory action and emergency response.

The 6 November 2025 emergency response activation for Typhoon Tino is a key documented example of the Eastern Samar Consortium operating as a defined partnership and delivering a multi-sector response to affected communities.

Through the continuing Start Ready framework, the consortium connects risk information, pre-arranged financing, local coordination, preparedness, anticipatory action and emergency response within an integrated approach to disaster risk management in Eastern Samar.