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2026 Beaches—East York federal by-election

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2026 Beaches—East York federal by-election
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August 31, 2026
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Riding of Beaches—East York
Turnout40.39% (Decrease 31.55 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
LPC
NDP
CPC
Candidate Tanveer Shahnawaz Shannon Devine Jim Syrbos
Party Liberal New Democratic Conservative
Last election 67.75% 6.85% 23.54%
Popular vote 18,361 8,512 5,116
Percentage 55.68% 25.82% 15.52%
Swing Decrease 12.06 pp Increase 18.96 pp Decrease 8.02 pp
MP before election

Nate Erskine-Smith[a]
Liberal

 Elected MP

Tanveer Shahnawaz
Liberal

A by-election was held on August 31, 2026 to elect a member of Parliament (MP) to represent Beaches—East York, Ontario, in the House of Commons for the remainder of the 45th Parliament following the resignation of Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith.[1]

Background

[edit]

Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith had represented Beaches—East York since the 2015 Canadian federal election and was re-elected in the 2025 Canadian federal election.[2] In December 2023, he announced that he would not seek re-election federally, but reversed that decision after being appointed Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities in December 2024.[3]

Following the 2025 election, Erskine-Smith remained in Cabinet briefly under Prime Minister Mark Carney before being dropped from Cabinet in May 2025.[4] On February 3, 2026, Erskine-Smith announced that he was exploring a bid for the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party.[5] The following month, he confirmed that he would seek the party's nomination for the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.[6]

Erskine-Smith lost the nomination to Ahsanul Hafiz on May 9, 2026. He subsequently appealed the result, alleging irregularities in the nomination process.[7] On May 24, the party's arbitration committee dismissed the appeal, concluding that no irregularities had compromised the outcome of the vote.[8] Erskine-Smith later announced that he would resign from the House of Commons. His resignation took effect on July 7, triggering the by-election.

Constituency

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Beaches—East York is an urban federal riding in the city of Toronto, Ontario. The district includes the neighbourhoods of The Beaches, Upper Beaches, East Danforth, O'Connor–Parkview, and part of Old East York.

Timing

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On July 8, 2026, Elections Canada announced that the Chief Electoral Officer had received official notice from the Speaker of the House of Commons that the Beaches—East York seat was vacant. The date of the by-election must be announced between July 18, 2026, and January 3, 2027. The by-election must be held on a Monday at least 36 days and no more than 50 days after the by-election is announced. As a result, the earliest possible election day is August 24, 2026, and the latest possible election day is February 22, 2027.[9]

On July 24, Prime Minister Mark Carney called the by-election, setting August 31 as the election date.[1]

Candidates

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Liberal Party

[edit]

Tanveer Shahnawaz, former office manager for Erskine-Smith, won the Beaches—East York federal Liberal Electoral District Association nomination meeting held on July 18, 2026.[10][11] 869 votes were cast in total.[12] Claire Seaborn, an environmental lawyer and former chief of staff to then-Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, came in second place, losing by 13 votes according to journalist Steve Paikin who saw a leak of the final results.[13] The third place finisher was reportedly Summer Nudel, registered social worker and senior advisor to the Office of the Commissioner of Housing Equity (OCHE).[13][14][15] Arthur Potts, former MPP for Beaches—East York provincial riding, was also on the ballot.[13]

John Tory Jr., aviation executive and son of former Toronto mayor John Tory,[16] had announced his candidacy but suspended his campaign on July 13, 2026, saying that the early date for the nomination meeting left him with no path for success.[17] Marc Hull-Jacquin, founder of a charity that helps women fleeing domestic violence was also interested in the nomination, but withdrew for the same reason as Tory.[13][14]

New Democratic Party

[edit]

NDP leader Avi Lewis ruled out running as his party's candidate in the riding, following earlier media reporting that he might seek the party's nomination in the by-election to obtain a seat in the House of Commons.[18][19] Mike Layton, former Toronto City Councillor for Ward 11 University—Rosedale and son of late NDP leader Jack Layton, was considering a run,[20] but declined.[21] On July 30, 2026, labour activist Shannon Devine, who had been the party's candidate for the 2025 federal election, was announced as the candidate.[21]

Other candidates

[edit]

On July 29, 2026, the Conservative Party announced that its candidate was Jim Syrbos.[22][23] On July 30, 2026, the Green Party announced that former journalist Bruce Livesey will run under its banner.[24] Michel Lachance and Cameron Thomas completed the ballot, running for the People's Party and Canadian Future Party, respectively.[25]

Opinion polling

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Sample
size		 Lead
Forum ResearchAugust 27, 2026[26] 35 23 27 10 — 499 8
PoliwaveAugust 19, 2026[27] 55.0 20.6 20.7 2.6 1.2 538 34.3
Mainstreet ResearchMarch 13, 2026[28] 67 17 12 3 2 440 50

Result

[edit]
Canadian federal by-election, August 31, 2026: Beaches—East York
Resignation of Nate Erskine-Smith
Party Candidate Votes%±%
LiberalTanveer Shahnawaz18,50455.84-11.90
New DemocraticShannon Devine8,49625.64+18.78
ConservativeJim Syrbos5,14215.52-8.02
GreenBruce Livesey5811.75+0.47
People'sMichel Lachance2490.75—
Canadian FutureCameron Thomas1650.50—
Total valid votes 33,137
Total rejected ballots 111
Turnout 33,24840.82-31.12
Eligible voters 81,460
Liberal hold Swing -15.51
Source: Elections Canada

Previous result

[edit]
2025 Canadian federal election: Beaches—East York
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
LiberalNate Erskine-Smith39,80467.75+11.17$119,113.28
ConservativeJocelyne Poirier13,83023.54+9.19$47,999.71
New DemocraticShannon Devine4,0276.85−15.67$56,544.86
GreenJack Pennings7481.27−1.44$0.00
IndependentDiane Joseph1610.27N/A$0.00
CommunistElizabeth Rowley1460.25−0.01$0.00
Marxist–LeninistSteve Rutchinski390.07−0.03$0.00
Total valid votes/expense limit 58,75599.47+0.13$128,551.93
Total rejected ballots 3110.53–0.13
Turnout 59,06671.94+7.03
Eligible voters 82,102
Liberal hold Swing +0.99
Source: Elections Canada[29][30]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ↑ Erskine-Smith resigned his seat on July 7, 2026.

References

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  1. 1 2 "Three by-elections set for Aug. 31 in Ontario, B.C., Quebec ridings". The Globe and Mail. July 26, 2026. Retrieved July 26, 2026.
  2. ↑ "A Federal Seat Is Vacant in Beaches—East York (Ontario)". Elections Canada. July 8, 2026. Retrieved July 8, 2026.
  3. ↑ Shackleton, Al (December 20, 2024). "Beaches-East York MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith named Canada's new Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities". Beach Metro Community News. Retrieved July 8, 2026.
  4. ↑ "Roles - Hon. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith - Current and Past". House of Commons of Canada. Retrieved July 8, 2026.
  5. ↑ "MP Nate Erskine-Smith 'exploring' Ontario Liberal leadership, seeks seat". Global News. February 3, 2026. Retrieved July 24, 2026.
  6. ↑ "Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith to seek nomination in provincial Scarborough riding being vacated by NDP's Doly Begum". CityNews. February 3, 2026. Retrieved July 24, 2026.
  7. ↑ "Liberal MP challenges nomination loss for Scarborough Southwest byelection". CBC News. May 12, 2026. Retrieved July 24, 2026.
  8. ↑ "Erskine-Smith nomination appeal dismissed by Ontario Liberal Party panel". CBC News. May 24, 2026. Retrieved July 24, 2026.
  9. ↑ "A Federal Seat Is Vacant in Beaches—East York (Ontario)". Elections Canada. July 8, 2026. Retrieved July 8, 2026.
  10. ↑ Tumiltyu, Ryan (July 9, 2026). "Liberals announce short nomination contest for Beaches—East York". Toronto Star. Retrieved July 9, 2026.
  11. ↑ "Federal Liberals select Tanveer Shahnawaz as candidate for Beaches-East York by-election". CBC News. July 19, 2026. Retrieved July 19, 2026.
  12. ↑ Stephens, Matthew (July 18, 2026). "Tanveer Shahnawaz wins nomination for federal Liberals in Beaches-East York". Beach Metro Community News. Retrieved July 19, 2026.
  13. 1 2 3 4 Paikin, Steve (July 28, 2026). "ANALYSIS: Beaches—East York proves it: nomination meetings stink". TVO Today. TVOnrario. Retrieved July 28, 2026.
  14. 1 2 Tumilty, Ryan (June 3, 2026). "Six Liberals preparing to replace Nate Erskine-Smith in Toronto riding". Toronto Star. Retrieved June 8, 2026.
  15. ↑ "Nudel, Shahnawaz seek nomination to be new federal Liberal candidate for Beaches-East York riding". Beach Metro Community News. May 13, 2026. Retrieved November 14, 2025.
  16. ↑ Lourenco, Denio (July 2, 2026). "John Tory Jr. intends to run for Liberals in Beaches-East York". CityNews Toronto. Retrieved July 3, 2026.
  17. ↑ Casaletto, Lucas (June 13, 2026). "John Tory Jr. suspends Beaches–East York Liberal nomination bid". CityNews. Retrieved June 13, 2026.
  18. ↑ Wiseman, Nelson (May 18, 2026). "Is Avi Lewis making his first big mistake?". The Hill Times. Retrieved June 4, 2026.
  19. ↑ Benson, Stuart (April 22, 2026). "'Desperate need of renewal': Liberal MP Erskine-Smith sets sights on federal exit, provincial party revival". The Hill Times. Retrieved May 17, 2026.
  20. ↑ Ramzy, Mark (July 22, 2026). "Jack Layton's son considers run for NDP in Beaches—East York: Sources". The Toronto Star. ISSN 0319-0781. Retrieved July 22, 2026.
  21. 1 2 "Jack Layton's son won't run for NDP in Beaches—East York byelection". The Toronto Star. July 30, 2026. ISSN 0319-0781. Retrieved July 30, 2026.
  22. ↑ "Jim Syrbos is the Conservative Candidate for the by-election in Beaches—East York". Twitter. Conservative Party of Canada. July 29, 2026. Retrieved July 30, 2026.
  23. ↑ Shackleton, Jessica (August 13, 2026). "Six candidates registered in Beaches-East York federal byelection". Beach Metro Community News. Retrieved August 18, 2026.
  24. ↑ "Award-winning journalist Bruce Livesey named Green candidate in Beaches—East York by-election". Green Party of Canada. Toronto. July 30, 2026. Retrieved July 31, 2026.
  25. ↑ "Candidates meeting for Beaches-East York federal byelection set for tonight". Beach Metro Community News. August 19, 2026. Retrieved August 19, 2026.
  26. ↑ "Liberals Lead in Beaches—East York Federal Election Poll". Forum Research. August 27, 2026. Retrieved October 5, 2026.
  27. ↑ "Poliwave riding polls for 3 upcoming federal elections on August 31st". Poliwave. August 24, 2026. Retrieved August 25, 2026.
  28. ↑ "Beaches-East York Federal Voting Intentions Survey" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. Retrieved August 20, 2026.
  29. ↑ "Voter information service". Elections Canada. Retrieved May 7, 2025.
  30. ↑ "Official Voting Results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 7, 2026.
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