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2000 United States Senate election in Missouri

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2000 United States Senate election in Missouri
← 1994
November 7, 2000
2002 (special) →
 
Nominee Mel Carnahan † John Ashcroft
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,191,812 1,142,852
Percentage 50.46% 48.39%
Carnahan:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Ashcroft:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

John Ashcroft
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Mel Carnahan †
Democratic

The 2000 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 7, 2000. Republican incumbent John Ashcroft ran for re-election to a second term but was defeated by Democratic governor Mel Carnahan, despite Carnahan's death in a plane crash on October 16. After the election, Missouri governor Roger Wilson appointed Carnahan's widow Jean to fill the seat until a 2002 special election.

Primary elections were held on August 9. Ashcroft and Carnahan both faced token opposition and won large majorities.[1]

Following his defeat, Ashcroft was appointed United States attorney general by George W. Bush and served from 2001 to 2005. As of 2026, this is the only time a deceased person has won a Senate election in the chamber's history.

Background

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John Ashcroft had first been elected in 1994 with close to 60 percent of the vote amidst a national Republican wave. As senator, he established a reputation as an advocate for welfare reform, tax reform, and socially conservative policies.[2][3][4] Beginning in 1997, Ashcroft considered running for president in 2000.[5] He visited numerous crucial states and considered running for president, Senate, or both simultaneously, as was permitted under Missouri law.[6]

His opponent was Democratic governor Mel Carnahan, who had been elected in 1992 and was barred from seeking a third term in the 2000 election. Carnahan had held various statewide positions since 1981, including treasurer and lieutenant governor while Ashcroft was governor. He also had been seen as a prospective candidate for U.S. Senate for many years,[7][8] including against Ashcroft in 1994.[9] Carnahan announced his campaign for the seat on November 4, 1998, with opinion polling showing him leading Ashcroft.[10] On January 5, 1999, Ashcroft announced that he would not seek the presidency and would run only for a second term in the Senate.[11]

The Missouri election was expected to be one of the most hotly contested in the country. Missouri was often considered a swing state and a national bellwether in presidential elections,[12] having voted for the correct winner in every presidential election from 1904, with the exception of the 1956 presidential election.[13] Ashcroft and Carnahan were also both considered complements to their parties' respective presumptive nominees for president, George W. Bush and Al Gore.[14]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Republican primary results [15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Ashcroft (incumbent) 327,442 89.60%
Republican Marc Perkel 38,103 10.40%
Total votes 365,545 100.0%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Democratic primary results [15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mel Carnahan 323,841 78.20%
Democratic Ronald Waggoner 90,251 21.80%
Total votes 414,092 100.0%

General election

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Candidates

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  • John Ashcroft, incumbent U.S. senator since 1995 (Republican)
  • Mel Carnahan, governor of Missouri (Democratic) (died October 16)
  • Charles Dockins (Natural Law)
  • Hugh Foley (Reform)
  • Grant Samuel Stauffer (Libertarian)
  • Evaline Taylor (Green)

Campaign

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Ashcroft campaigned by bus across the state, centering his message on "Missouri Values."[16] Similarly, Carnahan held a four-day train tour as an homage to Missouri native and former president Harry S. Truman, who had held this seat in the 1930s and 1940s.[17]

The race became negative early.[18] Ashcroft was attacked[by whom?] for his role in defeating the nomination of Ronnie L. White to a United States district court. Ashcroft had attacked White, who was black, as "pro-criminal." Carnahan and many black leaders criticized Ashcroft's opposition as racially motivated.[19] Ashcroft was also criticized[by whom?] for voting against a prescription drug benefit for Medicare, voting for the removal of Bill Clinton from office, and his conservative positions in general.[12][20][21] Ashcroft also faced controversy[ambiguous] for accepting an honorary degree from Bob Jones University, a Christian college which faced controversy[ambiguous] over some of its views.[22]

Carnahan was attacked for past actions, including wearing blackface in a 1960 sketch and commuting the death sentence of Darrell J. Mease at the behest of Pope John Paul II.[23][24] The candidates disagreed on issues including healthcare, education and Social Security, mirroring the national presidential election.[25][26]

The candidates were close in the polls and in fundraising through October, with this becoming one of the most expensive campaigns in the nation.[27] Ashcroft received significant funding from Monsanto, which was headquartered in St. Louis and gave five times more to Ashcroft than any other congressional candidate in 2000.[28][29] Ashcroft was later fined by the Federal Election Commission for failure to disclose donors.[30][31]

Debates

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The candidates debated twice. The first debate was held on October 13 in St. Louis on KMOX. The second debate was held on October 15 on KCPT-TV in Kansas City. A third debate was planned to be held in Cape Girardeau, but its details had not been finalized before Carnahan's death on October 18.[32]

Carnahan plane crash

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On October 16, the day after the second debate, Carnahan spent the day campaigning. At around 6:45 that evening, he planned to depart to New Madrid for a meeting with Black leaders in Missouri.[33] However, failing instruments and bad weather conditions caused his plane to crash at around 7:30 in rural Jefferson County. Carnahan was killed, along with his son and a longtime aide.[34] In response, Ashcroft suspended all campaigning on the day of the crash and did not resume until October 31, eight days before the election.[35] Carnahan's death also came one day before the third presidential debate in St. Louis. Both Al Gore and George W. Bush offered tributes to the recently deceased governor before the debate.[36]

Because Missouri law did not permit candidates to be withdrawn after October 13, Carnahan's name remained on the ballot.[37] Lieutenant governor Roger B. Wilson was officially sworn in as governor and promised that if Carnahan won the election, he would appoint his widow, Jean Carnahan.[38] Jean Carnahan accepted the appointment and continued her late husband's campaign, using his slogan, "Don't let the fire go out!" She received an outpouring of support.[39] What was once a contentious campaign, quickly became a campaign of emotion.[40] Polls bore this out; prior to Carnahan's death, Ashcroft had begun to lead in opinion polling,[41][42][43][44] but some of the final polls in the race showed Carnahan with a sizable lead, which only grew when voters were informed of the planned appointment of his widow.[45][46]

Carnahan's death, his widow's open embrace of his posthumous candidacy, and the subsequent outpouring of support put Ashcroft in a difficult position. Without an opponent, Ashcroft was tried to turn the campaign's focus to policy issues, enlisting the help of former senator John Danforth, who filmed an advertisement encouraging voters to look at Ashcroft's experience.[47][48] But due to the unique circumstances of the election, Ashcroft found it hard to regain the momentum.[49] He commented in a television interview that suspending his campaign had damaged him politically, but he maintained that it was the right thing to do.[50] In the final week, Ashcroft focused exclusively on the issues, stringently avoiding any mentions of Carnahan.[47]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s) Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John Ashcroft
(R)		 Mel Carnahan
(D)		 Other / undecided[a]
Zogby Analytics[51] November 5, 2000 597 — 49% 49% 2%
Harris Insights & Analytics[51] November 3, 2000 5,833 — 49% 49% 2%
Zogby Analytics[51] November 2, 2000 600 — 45% 48% 7%
Research 2000[51] November 1, 2000 600 — 42% 47% 11%
Zogby Analytics[51] October 30, 2000 600 — 45% 47% 8%
Rasmussen Reports[51] October 29, 2000 1,243 — 46% 48% 6%
Zogby Analytics[51] October 27, 2000 600 — 43% 50% 7%
Zogby Analytics[51] October 25, 2000 603 — 45% 47% 8%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[51] October 24, 2000 625 — 46% 46% 8%
Rasmussen Reports[51] October 23, 2000 1,072 — 49% 46% 5%
October 16–18, 2000 Carnahan dies in a plane crash

Results

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Despite his death, Carnahan won by a margin of approximately 50 thousand votes.[52] He was the first person posthumously elected to the United States Senate.[53][b] A professor of political science at the University of Missouri commented that the incumbent Senator lost the election because his candidacy was "overwhelmed" by a campaign of "emotion and symbolism."[35]

2000 United States Senate election in Missouri[52]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mel Carnahan † 1,191,812 50.46%
Republican John Ashcroft (incumbent) 1,142,852 48.39%
Green Evaline Taylor 10,612 0.45%
Libertarian Grant Samuel Stauffer 10,198 0.43%
Reform Hugh Foley 4,166 0.18%
Natural Law Charles Dockins 1,933 0.08%
Write-in 13 0.00%
Total votes 2,361,586 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Aftermath

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There was speculation that the results would be subject to a legal challenge. Even before the election, Republicans claimed that Carnahan would be ineligible due to him being dead, claims Democrats dismissed as attempts to depress support for the dead governor.[54] A point of contention among Republicans was the decision of judge Evelyn Baker to extend polling hours in the city of St. Louis until 10:00 PM, 3 hours after polls in the city should have closed.[55] Baker claimed that huge turnout overwhelmed the polling places, and that many people were being denied the ability to vote.[56] Kit Bond, the state's Republican senior senator alleged that this was voter fraud, and called for a federal investigation.[57] Ultimately, nothing came of any of these issues, and Ashcroft declined to seriously push the issue.[35]

Asked by the media whether he would ever seek office again, Ashcroft responded, "The last thing I want to do is think about running for public office again."[35] In December 2000, he was chosen for the position of United States Attorney General by President-elect George W. Bush and his nomination was confirmed by the Senate[58] by a vote of 58 to 42. He served from February 2, 2001, until February 3, 2005.[59]

Keeping to his word, Governor Roger B. Wilson appointed Carnahan's widow, Jean Carnahan, to fill the vacant seat until a successor could be duly elected.[60] The appointment was made official on in early December after the final results had been certified.[61][62] Carnahan was sworn in on January 3, 2001, along with the rest of the senators elected the previous year.[63]

In 2002, a special election was held in Missouri for the remainder of the six-year term of the state's Senator. Jean Carnahan ran for election to complete the term but was defeated by Republican Jim Talent with a margin of approximately twenty-two thousand votes.[64]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ↑ In 1962, voters in California elected Clement Woodnutt Miller to the House of Representatives one month after his death in a plane crash. In 1972, two other Representatives, Nick Begich of Alaska and Hale Boggs of Louisiana were re-elected after their plane went missing in the Alaska wilderness. They were both declared dead in absentia after the election.

References

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  1. ↑ "Carnahan, Ashcroft Senate race set". Lawrence Journal-World. August 9, 2000. pp. 2A. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  2. ↑ PBS NewsHour (December 22, 2000). "Attorney General-Designate John Ashcroft". PBS NewsHour. Archived from the original on September 3, 2021. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  3. ↑ Franken, Bob (January 12, 1998). "Ashcroft Takes A Stab At Tax Reform - 01-12-98". www.cnn.com. Archived from the original on May 2, 2001. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  4. ↑ Neal, Terry M. (September 10, 2023). "In Senate, Bush Backed by Ashcroft (washingtonpost.com)". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on September 10, 2023. Retrieved September 10, 2023.
  5. ↑ Manning, Carl (August 14, 1997). "Ashcroft says he is serious on presidency". The Southeast Missourian. p. 1. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  6. ↑ "Ashcroft must decide which run to make". The Southeast Missourian. December 13, 1998. pp. 14A. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  7. ↑ Charton, Scott (April 28, 1991). "Democrats solicit a Senate hopeful". The Southeast Missourian. p. 8. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  8. ↑ Charton, Scott (January 25, 1997). "Carnahan: No Senate bid". The Southeast Missourian. p. 1. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  9. ↑ Charton, Scott (January 3, 1994). "Carnahan prefers second term over Senate bid in '94". The Southeast Missourian. pp. 4A. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  10. ↑ Charton, Scott (1998). "Carnahan seeks Ashcroft's Senate Seat". The Nevada Daily Mail. pp. 10A. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  11. ↑ "Ashcroft decides not to jump into 2000 race - January 5, 1999". www.cnn.com. January 5, 1999. Archived from the original on August 18, 2000. Retrieved July 11, 2023.
  12. 1 2 Farney, Dennis (June 14, 2000). "The Missouri Senate Race Looks Like A Microcosm of Bush-Gore Campaign". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved June 14, 2023.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  13. ↑ Hardy, Richard J. "Online NewsHour Election 2000: Missouri". www.pbs.org. Archived from the original on June 25, 2022. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  14. ↑ "Stuart Rothenberg: The fight for the Senate - September 20, 2000". www.cnn.com. Archived from the original on September 22, 2000. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  15. 1 2 Election result statistics sos.mo.gov
  16. ↑ "Ashcroft for Senate 2000 | Our Missouri Values Working in the Senate". August 15, 2000. Archived from the original on August 15, 2000. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  17. ↑ "Missouri Senate race matches two political 'titans' - July 19, 2000". www.cnn.com. Archived from the original on October 1, 2000. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  18. ↑ Mark, David (2009). Going dirty: the art of negative campaigning (2nd ed.). Lanham, Md: Rowman & Littlefield. p. 180. ISBN 978-0-7425-9982-6.
  19. ↑ Grumwald, Michael (October 23, 1999). "Washingtonpost.com: Missouri Senate Race Is Heating Up Early". www.washingtonpost.com. Archived from the original on August 16, 2000. Retrieved June 14, 2023.
  20. ↑ "THE PRESIDENT'S TRIAL: THE REPUBLICANS; In Pro-Clinton States, 13 Senators Face a Squeeze by Right-Wing Ire - The New York Times". The New York Times. September 19, 2017. Archived from the original on September 19, 2017. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  21. ↑ "Kansas City Star - Election 2000". August 19, 2000. Archived from the original on August 19, 2000. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  22. ↑ Murray, Barbara (September 30, 2000). "Bob Jones Controversy Spreads to Missouri (washingtonpost.com)". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on September 30, 2000. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
  23. ↑ Associated Press (October 25, 1999). "Washingtonpost.com: Mo. Governor's Blackface Gets a New Showing". www.washingtonpost.com. Archived from the original on November 2, 2011. Retrieved June 14, 2023.
  24. ↑ Niebuhr, Gustav (January 29, 1999). "Governor Grants Pope's Plea For Life of a Missouri Inmate". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on May 20, 2015. Retrieved June 14, 2023.
  25. ↑ Davis, Patti (September 25, 2000). "Missouri heavyweights slug it out in heated Senate race - September 25, 2000 2000". www.cnn.com. Archived from the original on September 30, 2000. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  26. ↑ Charton, Scott (October 14, 2000). "Ashcroft, Carnahan talk Social Security". The Southeast Missourian. p. 1. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  27. ↑ Manning, Margie (February 27, 2000). "$7 million in Senate race". www.bizjournals.com. Archived from the original on April 29, 2005. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  28. ↑ Schanbacher, William D. The Politics of Food: The Global Conflict between Food Security and Food Sovereignty, Praeger Security International; February 26, 2010; ISBN 978-0313363283; p.47
  29. ↑ Harrison, Beth B. Shedding Light on Genetically Engineered Food: What You Don’t Know About the Food You’re Eating and What You Can Do to Protect Yourself, iUniverse, Inc., November 13, 2007, ISBN 978-0595451807
  30. ↑ "Complaint alleges Ashcroft violationa". The Telegraph-Herald. Knight Rider News Service. March 9, 2001. pp. 2A. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  31. ↑ Pincus, Walter (March 7, 2004). "Ashcroft funds scrutinized". Lawrence Journal-World. pp. 3A. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  32. ↑ Johnston, Laura (October 4, 2000). "Carnahan, Ashcroft OK debate dates". The Southeast Missourian. p. 1. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  33. ↑ Manning, Carl (October 19, 2000). "Carnahan's last day was filled with campaigning". The Nevada Daily Mail. pp. 3B. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  34. ↑ "Audio tapes give glimpse into cockpit before Carnahan's crashed". The Southeast Missourian. Associated Press. February 3, 2001. pp. 5A. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  35. 1 2 3 4 Fountain, John W. (November 9, 2000). "THE 2000 ELECTIONS: MISSOURI; Senator Refuses To Challenge Loss". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on September 4, 2014. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  36. ↑ Johnson, Doug (October 18, 2000). "Wilson sworn in as governor as crash probe picks up speed". The Nevada Daily Mail. p. 5. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  37. ↑ "CNN.com - Missouri law lets governor appoint successor if Carnahan wins - October 30, 2000". CNN. November 17, 2001. Archived from the original on November 17, 2001. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  38. ↑ Charton, Scott (October 24, 2000). "Wilson prefers Carnahan widow for Senate appointment". The Nevada Daily Mail. p. 7. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  39. ↑ "Jean Carnahan Accepts Senate Offer - CBS News". www.cbsnews.com. CBS News Service. October 27, 2000. Archived from the original on July 11, 2023. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  40. ↑ "In Missouri Race, Emotion Becomes a Driving Force - The Washington Post". The Washington Post. July 27, 2023. Archived from the original on July 27, 2023. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  41. ↑ "OnPolitics". The Washington Post. February 11, 2002. Archived from the original on February 11, 2002. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  42. ↑ "Carnahan's Death Reshapes Senate Battle - The Washington Post". The Washington Post. July 27, 2023. Archived from the original on July 27, 2023. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  43. ↑ Dao, James (November 5, 2000). "THE 2000 CAMPAIGN: MISSOURI; Republican Senator Treads Softly in Run Against Well-Tended Grave of a Governor". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on May 27, 2015. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  44. ↑ "CNN.com - U.S. Senate Democratic majority cast in doubt after governor's death - October 17, 2000". www.cnn.com. October 17, 2000. Archived from the original on June 19, 2001. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
  45. ↑ Charton, Scott (October 31, 2000). "Widows decision complicates Senate race". The Fort Scott Tribune. p. 10. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  46. ↑ "Widow Says She'd Accept Senate Seat - The Washington Post". The Washington Post. July 27, 2023. Archived from the original on July 27, 2023. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  47. 1 2 Clairborne, William (July 27, 2023). "In Missouri Race, Emotion Becomes a Driving Force - The Washington Post". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 27, 2023. Retrieved September 10, 2023.
  48. ↑ "Missouri elects deceased candidate". Herald-Journal. Associated Press. November 8, 2000. pp. A7. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  49. ↑ Davey, Monica (November 9, 2000). "ASHCROFT TAKES SENATE LOSS TO LATE GOVERNOR WITH GRACE". Chicago Tribune. Archived from the original on November 3, 2022. Retrieved September 10, 2023.
  50. ↑ Charton, Scott (November 7, 2000). "Ashcroft crosses state in hope of gaining voters". Ocala Star-Banner. pp. 4A. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  51. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings Raw Polls File". GitHub. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 15, 2026.
  52. 1 2 "2000 ELECTION STATISTICS". clerk.house.gov. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  53. ↑ Bump, Phillip (October 1, 2014). "Five people have won election to Congress, despite being dead". Washington Post. Archived from the original on October 3, 2015. Retrieved July 11, 2023.
  54. ↑ Quaid, Libby (November 3, 2000). "GOP floats idea of constitutional challenge should Carnahan win". The Nevada Daily Mail. p. 1. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  55. ↑ "Call for Missouri Vote Fraud Investigation". ABC News. ABC News. November 9, 2000. Archived from the original on January 31, 2011. Retrieved September 10, 2023.
  56. ↑ Johnson, Dirk (November 8, 2000). "THE 2000 ELECTIONS: THE SWING STATES; Judge Delays Closing of Polls in St. Louis Amid Unexpectedly Heavy Turnout". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on July 10, 2012. Retrieved September 10, 2023.
  57. ↑ "Bond Alleges Voter Fraud in Missouri". PBS NewsHour. November 9, 2000. Archived from the original on September 10, 2023. Retrieved September 10, 2023.
  58. ↑ "Attorney General Nominee John Ashcroft's Senate Confirmation Hearing (Day One)". The American Presidency Project. January 16, 2001. Archived from the original on December 11, 2013. Retrieved July 11, 2023.
  59. ↑ "Office of the Attorney General | Attorney General: John David Ashcroft | United States Department of Justice". www.justice.gov. October 23, 2014. Archived from the original on December 29, 2014. Retrieved September 11, 2023.
  60. ↑ Wayne, Stephen J. & Clyde Wilcox. The Election of the Century: The 2000 Election and What it Tells Us About American Politics in the New Millennium, Routledge, February 20, 2002, ISBN 978-0765607430; ch.10
  61. ↑ "Governor makes it official: Widow of winner gets seat". products.kitsapsun.com. Associated Press. December 6, 2000. Archived from the original on September 10, 2023. Retrieved September 10, 2023.
  62. ↑ Powers, Marc (December 5, 2000). "Jean Carnahan". The Southeast Missourian. pp. 4A. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  63. ↑ Snow, Kate (January 3, 2001). "Carnahan takes Senate seat won posthumously by husband - January 3, 2001". www.cnn.com. Archived from the original on January 24, 2001. Retrieved September 11, 2023.
  64. ↑ "State Of Missouri | Specify a Race". April 2, 2015. Archived from the original on April 2, 2015. Retrieved July 11, 2023.
[edit]

Official campaign websites (archived)

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