Cosmic inflation is envisioned as the “most likely” start for the observed universe. To give substance to this claim, a framework is needed in which inflation can compete with other scenarios and the relative likelihood of all scenarios can be quantified. The most concrete scheme to date for performing such a comparison shows inflation to be strongly disfavored. We analyze the source of this failure for inflation and present an alternative calculation, based on more traditional semiclassical methods, that results in inflation being exponentially favored. We argue that reconciling the two contrasting approaches presents interesting fundamental challenges, and is likely to have a major impact on ideas about the early universe.

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