Top Russian officials appear to be carrying out a Kremlin-coordinated campaign to threaten NATO ally Finland in the same way they did prior to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has warned.
The assessment speaks to broader Western concerns that Russia has ambitions beyond Ukraine and could one day try to seize territory from a NATO ally if it assesses that the alliance is not willing or able to uphold its Article 5 obligation to collective defense.
Russia denies that it has such territorial ambitions in the former Soviet sphere, or that it seeks a conflict with NATO. The Kremlin has, however, said that NATO is "at war" with Russia because of its heavy assistance to Ukraine, which is still fending off a Russian invasion.
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"High-ranking Kremlin officials have increased threats against Finland in recent weeks, including by using language that mirrors the Kremlin's false justifications for its invasions of Ukraine," the Washington-based ISW think tank said in an analysis published Thursday, September 18.
"ISW continues to assess that the playbook Russia is currently using to threaten NATO mirrors the playbook Russia previously used to set informational conditions justifying its aggression against Ukraine."
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Embassy in Finland for comment.
Finland in Russia's Sights
The ISW pointed to recent comments about Finland made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Special Envoy Sergei Ivanov, and State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexey Chepa in particular.
Lavrov had said on September 18 that the Finnish government's "neutral veneer peeled off" and revanchism is "literally on the rise" in the country, which declared its independence from neighboring Russia in 1917.
Finland, which joined NATO in 2023 in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the heightened threat of Moscow's expansionism, had also fought off an invasion by the Soviet Union in 1939.
Dmitry Medvedev, who is also deputy to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the country's security council, recently accused Finland of preparing to attack Russia after joining NATO.
NATO, a U.S.-led alliance, binds allies under Article 5 of its treaty to collective defense if any of its members come under armed attack.
Estonia Accuses Russia of Jets Violation
On Friday, September 19, NATO ally Estonia accused Russia of violating its airspace over the Gulf of Finland with three fighter jets, which lingered for 12 minutes before leaving.
"Russia has already violated Estonia's airspace four times this year, which in itself is unacceptable. But today's incursion, involving three fighter aircraft entering our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen," said Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna in a statement.
"Russia's increasingly extensive testing of boundaries and growing aggressiveness must be met with a swift increase in political and economic pressure."
The Russian government did not immediately respond to the accusation. It has said previously that allegations of its aircraft and drones violating NATO allies' airspace lacked evidence.
Update 9/19/25, 10:41 a.m. ET: This article was updated with more information.