Science Of Climate Change Adaptation

How to adapt to a hotter world! Climate change has significant costs. Even if we achieve net zero. To be clear: climate change mitigation, i.e. reducing greenhouse gas emissions, remains key to limit future damages. However, the physical risks of climate change are already here, and they are growing. Even in a scenario where we reduce emissions to net zero by 2050, global GDP could be 8.5% lower due to climate change. Adaptation to climate change is a crucial complement to global mitigation efforts. Adaptation can help to reduce vulnerabilities and strengthen resilience. That means there is merit to integrating adaptation considerations into transition plans. Yet, at present, this is not widely adopted. That's why I am proud to announce the most recent publication by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The NGFS has led the development of an input paper on embedding adaptation into transition plans. This paper is an important contribution to the South African G20 Presidency's agenda on scaling up financing for adaptation and just transitions. 💡 In this paper, we propose a practical, flexible framework to embed adaptation into transition plans across five key pillars: ✅ Governance: Effective governance structures are crucial to ensure adaptation goals are integrated into transition plans. ✅ Foundations: Since there is no global equivalent to net zero emissions for adaptation, the focus should be on managing physical risk exposure and seizing adaptation-related business opportunities. ✅ Implementation strategy: Turn assessments of risks and opportunities into concrete action. This can include avoiding or sharing risk and investing in new opportunities. ✅ Engagement strategy: Work together with external stakeholders like, industry peers, governments, and regulators, to implement strategies effectively. ✅ Metrics and targets: Start by assessing available data and setting basic metrics. Gradually adopt advanced metrics to measure outcomes and set clear targets. This framework is designed to meet institutions where they are. It is tailored to varying capacities and contexts and provides guidance on setting adaptation targets and metrics. Adaptation is not just about managing risks. It is also about unlocking opportunities. Embedding adaptation into transition plans is an important step towards a more sustainable and resilient global economy.   👇 Click through the slides to read the input paper. Donald Chen Sean Carmody Deutsche Bundesbank Banque de France South African Reserve Bank G20 South Africa Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) Australian Prudential Regulation Authority The World Bank CDP International Transition Plan Network (ITPN) IAIS - International Association of Insurance Supervisors UNDP Sustainable Insurance Forum (SIF) UNDP 

🌍 The atmosphere is getting thirstier: are we ready for more extreme droughts? A new study published in Nature shows that rising atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) — or atmospheric thirst — is now responsible for nearly 40% of the increase in drought severity over the past 40 years. 💧 Even where rainfall hasn’t declined, droughts are worsening because warmer, drier, windier air pulls more moisture from soils, rivers, crops and forests. In 2022 alone: 🔹 30% of global land faced moderate to extreme drought 🔹 Global drought-affected land expanded by 74% 🔹 Severe impacts were seen across Europe, Africa, Australia, and the US — disrupting water supply, agriculture, hydropower, and entire supply chains. Drought can no longer be assessed simply by measuring rainfall deficits — we must also monitor how much water the atmosphere demands as temperatures rise. This is the new frontier of #climaterisk, which means: ⚠ Increasing operational risks for agriculture, energy, food security, and insurance ⚠ Higher volatility in commodity markets due to crop failures and water shortages ⚠ Greater stress on hydropower generation and energy-water nexus systems ⚠ Supply chain disruptions in water-intensive industries This is why integrating climate intelligence into corporate governance, risk management, and financial planning is becoming essential — a message I continue to advocate through my work. 🌡 The future of drought risk demands new thinking: ✅ Build AED into national drought monitoring systems ✅ Expand early warning capacity ✅ Support water-smart business strategies ✅ Promote nature-based solutions for moisture retention and soil health ✅ Align adaptation finance with emerging climate science the science is clear: climate adaptation is not a distant conversation, it’s an immediate operational imperative. https://lnkd.in/e8s4riFS

In Delhi, the temperature hit 42.1°C this year. But some people didn't have the luxury of going indoors because the street was their workplace. India’s 3 crore+ street vendors from fruit sellers to chaat walas spend over 12 hours a day under the open sky. They’re not just battling heat; they’re battling the vanishing shade. A recent study by Azim Premji University in Hyderabad reveals a disturbing trend: "As Indian cities grow vertically, their green cover shrinks." And the hardest hit? Women, migrants, and informal workers who depend on those trees for a livelihood. “When the tree was there, I sold 20 plates of Bhel. Now, I sit in the sun and barely manage 6.” -  a street vendor in Delhi. This isn't an isolated story. According to Greenpeace India & National Hawkers Federation (2024) survey: - 50% of street vendors in Delhi lost income during the summer months - 80% saw a dip in footfall due to extreme heat - ₹500–₹600 worth of goods go bad daily due to heat damage - 71% couldn’t afford medical care - Women vendors reported rising BP, menstrual irregularities, and sleep deprivation. And yet, despite Delhi hitting a record-breaking 50°C last year, heatwaves are still not recognized as a national disaster. Worse, street vendors are often left out of urban planning and climate resilience strategies. Green spaces are not aesthetic choices- they are economic lifelines. For many vendors, a tree is more than shade. It’s a signboard, a cooling system, and a guarantee of survival. And yet, the people who pollute the least are paying the highest price for climate change. If you’re in a position to influence policy, design public spaces, or fund local initiatives - pause and ask: Are we building cities that everyone can survive in?

We’re planting trees — but losing biodiversity. Global efforts to restore forests are gathering pace, driven by promises of combating climate change, conserving biodiversity, and improving livelihoods. Yet a recent paper published in Nature Reviews Biodiversity warns that the biodiversity gains from these initiatives are often overstated — and sometimes absent altogether. Forest restoration is at the heart of Target 2 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which aims to place 30% of degraded ecosystems under effective restoration by 2030. But the gap between ambition and outcome is wide. "Biodiversity will remain a vague buzzword rather than an actual outcome" unless projects explicitly prioritize it, the authors caution. Restoration has typically prioritized utilitarian goals such as timber production, carbon sequestration, or erosion control. This bias is reflected in the widespread use of monoculture plantations or low-diversity agroforests. Nearly half of the Bonn Challenge’s forest commitments consist of commercial plantations of exotic species — a trend that risks undermining biodiversity rather than enhancing it. Scientific evidence shows that restoring biodiversity requires more than planting trees. Methods like natural regeneration — allowing forests to recover on their own — can often yield superior biodiversity outcomes, though they face social and economic barriers. By contrast, planting a few fast-growing species may sequester carbon quickly but offers little for threatened plants and animals. Biodiversity recovery is influenced by many factors: the intensity of prior land use, the surrounding landscape, and the species chosen for restoration. Recovery is slow — often measured in decades — and tends to lag for rare and specialist species. Alarmingly, most projects stop monitoring after just a few years, long before ecosystems stabilize. However, the authors say there are reasons for optimism. Biodiversity markets, including emerging biodiversity credit schemes and carbon credits with biodiversity safeguards, could mobilize new financing. Meanwhile, technologies like environmental DNA sampling, bioacoustics, and remote sensing promise to improve monitoring at scale. To turn good intentions into reality, the paper argues, projects must define explicit biodiversity goals, select suitable methods, and commit to long-term monitoring. Social equity must also be central. "Improving biodiversity outcomes of forest restoration… could contribute to mitigating power asymmetries and inequalities," the authors write, citing examples from Madagascar and Brazil. If designed well, forest restoration could help address the twin crises of biodiversity loss and climate change. But without a deliberate shift, billions of dollars risk being spent on projects that plant trees — and little else. 🔬 Brancalion et al (2025): https://lnkd.in/gG6X36WP

Wars don’t just destroy nations. They expose how fragile our systems really are. Over the past few years, every global disruption, from conflicts to pandemics to supply shocks, has shown us one thing clearly: We have built a world that is highly efficient… but dangerously dependent. - Food travels thousands of kilometres before it reaches our plates. - Energy systems rely on distant, unstable sources. - Waste is exported, outsourced, and forgotten. And the moment something breaks somewhere in the world, everyone, everywhere, feels it. Maybe the question isn’t: How do we make global systems stronger? Maybe the question is: Why are we so dependent on them in the first place? And what if our cities, towns and villages could: • Grow more of their own food • Generate more of their own energy • Manage their own waste • Create and consume locally This isn’t about isolation. It’s about resilience. Because when systems are decentralised: • Communities recover faster • Livelihoods are created locally • Environmental impact reduces • And people regain a sense of ownership This is where sustainability meets survival. Decentralised production systems are not just a climate solution. They are a risk mitigation strategy for an uncertain world. The future isn’t global vs local. It’s global and local. In fact, its hyperlocal. But the balance has clearly tipped too far. If there’s one lesson from the world we’re witnessing today, it’s this: The strongest communities are the least dependent ones. Time to build local. Time to act resilient. Time to rethink how we produce, consume, and live. What do you think? #Decentralisation #Sustainability #Resilience #ClimateAction #LocalEconomies #CircularEconomy

Our current food production system, with agriculture at its core, is the single largest driver of planetary boundary transgression. The same system, however, can become part of the solution. In our new review in Global Sustainability, we assess the global evidence on Conservation Agriculture, based on 3 principles: no soil disturbance, permanent soil cover, and diversified crop rotations. The evidence is clear: Conservation Agriculture has expanded from ca. 100 to 200 million hectares in just a decade and now covers about 15% of global cropland. It could reach 50% by 2050. Converting cropland to Conservation Agriculture can sequester around 0.5 to 0.9 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year, potentially about 0.4–0.8 gigatonnes of carbon annually at global scale, while cutting fuel use by up to 70%. Healthier soils mean higher water retention, less erosion and greater resilience to droughts and floods. Conservation Agriculture on its own will not solve all food system challenges, but it is difficult to find a more ready-to-scale transformation in land management that addresses climate, biodiversity, freshwater, and soil degradation at once. It can be adopted at scale and speed, i.e., across all agro-ecological zones within the coming 1–2 decades. To operate within planetary boundaries, we need both an energy transition and a soil transition. Healthy soils are foundational to food security and Earth system stability. https://lnkd.in/dUTG3DSi

#Engineering #coastal #protection involves the #design and #construction of structures to safeguard #coastlines from erosion, flooding, and storm surges. These projects aim to protect both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure along vulnerable shorelines. Common coastal protection measures include sea walls, #breakwaters, jetties, and tidal #barriers, which are #engineered to absorb wave energy and reduce the impact of rising sea levels. In addition to hard engineering solutions like concrete and steel #structures, soft engineering approaches are also used. These include beach nourishment, dune restoration, and planting vegetation to stabilize sand and soil. Soft engineering methods often work in tandem with hard structures to create a more sustainable and natural defense against coastal threats. The need for effective coastal protection is increasing due to climate change, rising sea levels, and more frequent extreme weather events. Engineers must balance the need for protection with #environmental concerns, as some coastal defenses can disrupt local ecosystems. Ongoing #research and #innovation are crucial to developing adaptive and resilient solutions that can protect coastlines for future generations.

Coping with drought: summary of physiological & morphological adaptations 🌱🌡️ 🏜️ Plants adapt to drought stress through coordinated physiological and morphological changes that protect their water status and ensure survival. 💧 WATER BALANCE ADJUSTMENT - They improve water use efficiency (WUE), regulate stomatal opening and closing, and adjust their osmotic balance to retain water. - Abscisic acid (ABA) signaling plays a key role in root osmoregulation by limiting ion loss and maintaining root growth under dry conditions. - Plants may also reduce stomatal density, adjusting their gas exchange capacity to minimize water loss without sacrificing carbon fixation. 🌱 ROOT PHENOTYPE - Deep root systems allow crops to access moisture from deeper soil layers, enhancing drought resistance. - Root morphology shifts toward greater length, density, and surface area, improving water uptake efficiency under water-deficit conditions. 🌿 SHOOT PHENOTYPE - Leaves adapt by curling or rolling to reduce exposed surface area and limit water loss through transpiration. - Adjusting the root-to-shoot ratio and reducing shoot biomass to conserve resources. 🛡️ LEAF PROTECTIVE BARRIERS - Trichome density and size increase in many plants during drought, forming a protective boundary layer that reduces evaporation and UV damage. - Cuticle thickening, triggered by drought-induced gene expression, reinforces the leaf surface and limits water loss.   ⌬ OSMOTIC ADJUSTMENT - osmotic adjustment is a vital strategy that helps maintain cell turgor and hydration by accumulating solutes, such as proline, sugars, and ions. - These solutes stabilize proteins, membranes, and metabolic activity, ensuring cell function under low water availability. Image: physiological and morphological adaptations of plants to cope with drought and approaches to enhance drought tolerance (credits: Franco-Navarro et al. 2025; DOI: 10.1111/ppl.70332). #drought #soil

Climate Change Risk Assessments 🌎 Climate-related financial disclosure requirements are expanding across jurisdictions, increasing expectations for companies to assess and report on climate-related risks and opportunities. A structured climate change risk assessment (CCRA) is central to meeting these evolving regulatory demands. CCRAs evaluate both physical risks—such as extreme weather events, water stress, and sea level rise—and transition risks, including policy changes, carbon pricing, and shifts in market or technology landscapes. They also help identify potential opportunities linked to decarbonization, energy efficiency, and new revenue models. Scenario analysis is a core component. It enables companies to test strategic resilience under divergent climate pathways, including high-emissions futures and low-emissions transitions aligned with the Paris Agreement. Most regulatory frameworks now require both perspectives. Benefits of a robust CCRA include improved risk management, reduced exposure to disruptions, and strengthened alignment with investor expectations. Insights from these assessments can be embedded into enterprise risk systems, capital planning, and strategic roadmaps. Key challenges include short-term thinking in risk registers, limited access to forward-looking climate data, and misalignment between climate risk analysis and existing sustainability goals. These gaps can reduce the effectiveness of disclosures and slow organizational response. Recommended approaches include leveraging established scenarios (e.g. IPCC, IEA), integrating outputs into ERM systems, using frameworks like ISSB and TCFD for structure, and applying competitive benchmarking to validate assumptions. Cross-functional engagement improves practical relevance. As regulatory standards converge, CCRAs are becoming a baseline expectation. Those who develop structured, forward-looking assessments will be better positioned to adapt business models, manage uncertainty, and align with capital markets under increasing climate scrutiny. Source: Ramboll #sustainability #sustainable #business #esg #climatechange #risk