7 truths the VMAs unveiled about the 2027 Grammys, from Madonna and Taylor Swift to BTS and Lisa
The MTV Video Music Awards celebrated some of the year’s biggest successes — and also offered some early clues about how the Grammy race may be taking shape.
Between increasingly visible awards campaigns, projects gaining momentum with critics and audiences, and rising stars establishing their narratives, the VMAs provided a stage for several Grammy contenders just two weeks before the first-round voting period opens. Here are the seven biggest takeaways.
Madonna gains momentum
Madonna dominated the night. Entering the ceremony as the most-nominated artist with 13 nods, the Queen of Pop took home seven trophies, including Artist of the Year and Best Album for Confessions II.
The VMAs gave Madonna a valuable platform to strengthen her case for a potential Album of the Year nomination at the Grammys. Her showcase wins and ceremony-opening number with assists from Sabrina Carpenter and Charli xcx — easily the performance highlight of the evening — guaranteed Confessions II will remain on Recording Academy voters’ radar, while the reception she received from fellow artists in the room suggests strong industry support.
Still, the evening was not without complications. Madonna’s speeches came across as disjointed, when she could have delivered a strong closing argument (think Demi Moore at the Golden Globes). Even so, the night reinforced her standing as one of the season’s most visible, viable contenders.
Taylor Swift self-promotes, then plays to voters
Taylor Swift also figured prominently in the VMAs — she finished the night at the all-time most-awarded artist, with 33 career wins — but with more mixed results in terms of a Grammy boost.
As the inaugural recipient of the Artist Director Honors, Swift had the opportunity to focus on her talents beyond songwriting and performing, in this case as director of her music videos. However, her acceptance speech wasn't exactly embraced online — Pitchfork called it "a dedication to reminding the world about 'ME!'" But upon receiving the night's top prize, Video of the Year for "The Fate of Ophelia," she delivered a carefully calibrated speech that largely honored the late Dolly Parton, which will likely go over well with industry voters.
The Video of the Year victory signals the strength of "The Fate of Ophelia" in the Grammys' Best Music Video category if not the higher-profile Record and Song of the Year categories. Indeed, the Gold Derby prediction data actually showed Swift down a few percentage points in each of those races in the aftermath of the VMAs, although she's comfortably in line for nominations.
Sienna Spiro makes her presence known
Sienna Spiro further established herself as a legitimate Best New Artist contender at the Grammys with a standout showing Sunday night. Spiro won the VMAs new artist prize and performed her hit "Great Expectation," giving voters another opportunity to see the vocal ability that has become central to her rapidly growing profile. That kind of impression could carry over into Grammy season and put her into direct competition with front-runner Ella Langley.
Added bonus: Since the VMAs, Spiro has surged on the U.S. Spotify charts, showing the immediate impact of the awards on the culture.
Raye demands attention
British singer Raye delivered another of the night's powerhouse performances that could resonate with Grammy voters in the months ahead. She sang "I Will Overcome" and the Record of the Year-contending "Where Is My Husband" while bringing greater visibility to her critically acclaimed album This Music May Contain Hope.
Raye also participated in the George Michael tribute, one of the evening’s most hyped moments. The net benefit for her could be a trio of General Field bids: Album, Record, and Song of the Year.
Lisa steps into the spotlight
Lisa delivered one of the evening’s most memorable performances, with striking choreography and a polished, confident stage presence. She also surprised many viewers by winning Best Pop.
The combination of a high-profile victory and a commanding performance could strengthen Lisa’s position in the Grammy pop and dance categories, where visibility and momentum often play an important role throughout the season.
Lisa’s fellow Blackpink member Rosé earned three Grammy nominations last year for "Apt.," while Jennie is expected to contend this year with her Tame Impala-assisted hit "Dracula." Lisa’s VMA showing could help establish her as serious awards threat, too.
BTS show what might have been
BTS famously chose not to submit their Arirang project for Grammy consideration this year. The group cited the Recording Academy’s introduction of the new Best Asian Pop Music Performance category as a factor in that decision.
The VMAs offered a glimpse of what might have been had BTS entered the Grammy race. The group went 3-for-3, taking Song of the Year and Best K-Pop for "Swim," as well as Best Group. (None of those was presented during the televised ceremony.)
The victories marked BTS’ first wins in the VMAs’ general categories and signaled the strength of the group’s fan support. While the Grammys operate differently from the fan-voted VMAs, that level of enthusiasm could have offered a useful gauge of BTS’ overall momentum heading into the season.
The Grammy odds shake-up
The VMA results will help set the tone for the upcoming Grammy race, offering an early indication of which artists and projects are attracting the most attention.
The two awards shows operate differently — the VMAs are primarily fan-voted, while the Grammys are determined by Recording Academy voters — but there is often overlap, especially with the VMAs providing a huge platform to generate industry buzz ahead of nomination voting, which begins Oct. 12.
A look at the Gold Derby Grammy odds post-VMAs shows some movement for the key players. As mentioned, Swift is down slightly in Album, Song, and Record of the Year, while Raye has seen her fortunes tick up across the board. Madonna is up 5% in Album of the Year, and Spiro has moved into the No. 2 position behind Langley for Best New Artist, with a 95% chance at a nomination.
