The Arab American Vote 2024

For Arab Americans, Israel’s war on Palestinians in Gaza looms large and will play a significant role in this November’s election. This is one of the key observations emerging from a mid-September nationwide poll of 500 Arab American registered voters conducted by John Zogby Strategies for the Arab American Institute.

Since we first began polling Arab Americans 30 years ago, the community has consistently favored the Democratic Party, with the margin of that support holding steady at nearly two to one for the past decade and a half. The Biden Administration’s handling of the crisis in Gaza, however, has eroded that support resulting in Arab Americans now evenly divided between the two parties - 38% for each. Both Democrats and Republicans saw an increase in identification at the expense of Independents. Democrats saw the largest increase in identification after hitting an all-time low (23%) in the immediate aftermath of October 7th. Equally revealing is the fact that by a slight majority of 46% to 43%, voters in the community say they would prefer to see Republicans controlling the next Congress.

Turning to the presidential race, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are virtually tied, 42% to 41%, with Arab American voters. Looking more closely, with those that report they are very likely to vote, Trump leads Harris 46% to 42%. Only 79% of Democrats support Harris, while 89% of Republicans support Trump. Kamala Harris regained much of the support Biden lost after October 7th, but Harris remains 18 points below Biden’s 2020 level of support with Arab American voters.

While some headlines based on a few organizational member surveys have suggested a third-party candidate could garner a plurality of the Arab American vote, this nationwide poll of voters suggests otherwise. All the third-party candidates combined receive just 12% of the Arab American vote. Instead, it’s Trump who is the beneficiary of the community’s anger and despair over the Biden Administration’s failure to prevent the unfolding genocide in Gaza.

Traditionally, Arab American voter turnout has consistently been in the 80% range. But this year, only 63% of the community say they are enthusiastic about voting in the presidential election, likely impacting voter turnout in November. Still, Arab Americans remain an active constituency. Political engagement in the community includes 35% of Republicans, 24% of Democrats, and 37% of 18-29-year-olds who have contributed or plan to contribute to a campaign this election cycle. Looking at more direct action, 32% of Democrats and 28% of Republicans have contacted an elected official, and 37% of 18-29-year-olds have attended a rally or protest this election cycle.

For these voters, Gaza remains a top issue. Just over 8 out of every 10 (81%) Arab Americans view Gaza as important in determining their vote. Twenty-six percent of Arab Americans overall rated the crisis in Gaza as one of their most important issues. The crisis came second overall behind jobs and the economy, with gun violence following just behind. For Arab American Democrats, Gaza is the top issue overall.

However, responses show that there is still time for candidates to capture voter support from those that rank the crisis in Gaza as an immediate concern. When asked if Harris were either to demand an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza or to withhold diplomatic support for and arms shipments to Israel until they implement a ceasefire and withdraw their forces from Gaza, Harris’ vote among Arab Americans increases to around 60%. This new Harris tally captures one-third of Trump voters while virtually wiping out the votes that would go to the third-party candidates. If Trump were to make the same demands on Israel, he too would benefit, increasing his vote tally to 55%. This increased vote count for Trump comes from one-quarter of Harris voters and one-half of the votes going to third-party candidates.

While these measures are needed and important to end the war, even less dramatic steps in the midst of a campaign could have been taken to win more Arab American support. For example, more than half (55%) of Arab Americans would have been more likely to support Harris if the DNC allowed a Palestinian American speaker at the convention. This includes 78% of Democrats, 47% of Independents, and 36% of Republicans who stated they would have been more likely to support Harris if there had been a Palestinian speaker.

The crisis in Gaza has also deeply affected the safety of Arab Americans. The percent of Arab Americans who are concerned about their personal safety has risen from 45% in October of last year to 60%. Since October of 2023, there has been a 14-point rise of Arab Americans who are concerned about facing discrimination due to the violence in Palestine/Israel. Overall, 63% of Arab Americans say they have personally experienced discrimination because of their ethnicity or country of origin. This includes 77% of Arab American 18–29-year-olds, an age group in which only 6% said they were not worried about their personal safety due to the violence in Palestine/Israel.

Concern over the effect of the crisis on the community extends beyond personal safety. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Arab Americans are concerned about the proliferation of anti free speech, anti-BDS Laws. This is true across the political spectrum with 80% of Democrats, 71% of Republicans, and 65% of Independents noting their concern with anti-BDS laws. Worry over discriminatory laws and initiatives continue across communities with 62% of Arab Americans overall, including 69% of Democrats, 62% of Independents, and 55% of Republicans, stating their concern with the efforts to ban Black history and LGBTQ books in schools. At the same time 67%, including 78% of Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 59% of Republicans, are concerned with the scaling back of DEI programs.

Finally, in our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior. The year-long unfolding genocide in Gaza has impacted every component sub-group within the community - with only slight variations among religious communities and countries of origin, immigrant or native born, gender and age groups. With the catastrophe now facing Lebanon and a little over one month remaining before the election, Arab Americans and, as our polls of US voters have shown, those who share their concerns (young and non-white voters) will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns with Palestine and Lebanon will be recognized and respected with a promise for change.