WASHINGTON -- It's been long expected that Ohio would lose a congressional seat after the 2010 census, but now it appears the state could lose two U.S. House seats in the reapportionment that will take effect for the 2012 elections.

The calculation by Election Data Services, a Virginia-based political consulting firm that does congressional apportionment analyses, is based on U.S. Census Bureau data released this week.

Currently, Ohio has 18 U.S. House seats, and the just-released figures mean Ohio would only just miss losing two seats right now.

"In the 2008 analysis, the last seat in the 435-member House would go to Ohio, which holds onto its 17th Congressional seat by a margin of only 20,886 people," the consulting firm reports in its study released this week.

But by the 2010 census, all five models conducted by Election Data Services show, Ohio loses not one but two seats.

That would lead, no doubt, to fights among the congressional delegation and other Ohio politicians about which districts get eliminated and what turf the surviving districts encompass.

Ohio could be one of 11 states to lose out, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, but it would be the only state in the nation to lose two House seats, according to the study. The big winners: Texas, which would gain four seats, and Arizona, which would gain two. Florida will gain at least one seat and could, under some projections, gain a second seat, the report says.

California, for the first time, is in danger of losing one of its congressional seats, the study says.

The population estimates looking ahead to 2010 have California keeping its current 53 seats under three scenarios but losing a seat under two others.

That puts a premium on making sure the census is carried out as accurately as possible in various states, said Kimball Brace, Election Data Services president.

"A number of states have much to gain or lose by very small margins in the upcoming census," Brace said.

Overall, as many as 13 congressional seats would change nationwide, affecting a total of 20 or 21 states, the report estimates.

Ohio lost one seat after the 2000 census and two seats after the 1990 census.

jriskind@dispatch.com