EDITORIAL ⟩ Russia's shadow war is sowing anxiety in Europe

23rd September 2026, 14:30

Article photo — Caricature: You’ll get your teeth knocked in by the Ukrainians if you try to take Kyiv in three days... But what about a shadow war against Europe and NATO? Illustration: Urmas Nemvalts

European intelligence services are warning of a Russian shadow war, but commentators are painting it as a threat to the Baltics.
The direct military threat to the Baltic states has not changed, but their defense capabilities must be continuously strengthened.
Fear-mongering must not be allowed to become a political tool.

At the end of last week, several Estonian politicians and top officials, led by the Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Jonatan Vseviov, had to refute speculation on social media that a Russian attack on the Baltic states was imminent. The anxiety is being caused by Russia's recently intensifying shadow war against Europe and the reactions of some European allied leaders to it.

Russia's shadow war manifests in acts of sabotage and terrorism against European countries. In response, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Thursday that according to Polish intelligence, Russia has chosen Western countries supporting Ukraine as targets for hybrid attacks. He added that Russia's goal is to undermine NATO unity and prove to its member states that no one wants to die for Latvia or Lithuania.

A day later, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said he had similar intelligence. Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs stated that a major Russian operation against NATO is unlikely, but a smaller Russian incursion is under constant discussion and is being taken very seriously.

The possibility of a limited incursion was also mentioned by Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka to the British newspaper The Guardian. At the same time, news spread, mainly through Ukrainian channels, that Russia is creating an additional 20,000 hospital beds in the region bordering the Baltic states to treat wounded soldiers. Meanwhile, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) imposed stricter movement restrictions near the Estonian border until September 26.

Following this series of events, talk began to spread like wildfire on social media that something was about to happen in the Baltic states. These speculations are being spread by various journalists from both Western allies and Ukraine. While the motivation for Ukrainians is to keep Europe constantly on alert against the Russian threat, for Westerners, the narrative of a threat directed at the Baltic states seems to be the most convenient way to engage with the topic and gain attention.

To illustrate a speculation that garners as much attention as possible, the easiest thing to do is to draw a large red arrow on a map of the Baltic states, along which a possible Russian attack might take place. Such speculations tend to forget that the Baltic states also have defense capabilities.

At this time, it is worth keeping a cool head, preparing, and keeping one's eyes open, but this must be done by all of Europe, not just the Baltics. This is a shadow war against all of Europe, with the very aim of sowing fear and anxiety.

Estonia's threat assessment has not changed compared to before, and a direct Russian offensive against Estonia is not expected at present. At the same time, we must continuously strengthen our own defense capabilities. The better prepared Estonia is, the less reason there is to fear Russia.

However, when justifying the strengthening of defense capabilities, one must avoid phobocracy, or the manipulative form of governance through fear. We should not let the phobocratic messages of other national leaders get under our skin either.

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