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Th, 5.11.2026
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MEELIS OIDSALU Russian Mobilization will Become a Litmus Test for Estonian Intelligence

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Reports from Estonian intelligence agencies concerning the as-yet only potential Russian mass mobilization are worth monitoring closely, because if intelligence cannot provide a clear early warning about a Russian mobilization, it will also be unable to provide an early warning before a Russia-NATO war, writes security expert Meelis Oidsalu.

The «50:50» assessment by the head of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service, Kaupo Rosin, on a possible Russian mass mobilization sounds like a clear number, yet it leaves the government with an uncomfortably large gray area. How much can really be decided based on such an uncertain forecast?

At the same time, even a split probability can be a sufficient reason for real action – the question is what steps to take and when. How to balance the risk of regret, cost, and deterrence in a situation where Russia's next move is still unknown?

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