PERSON OF THE WEEK ⟩ Michal took a risk with Herem

Martin Herem has not even become the Minister of Defence yet, but his path is already overshadowed by a certain aftertaste. This is mostly related to the circumstances of the dismissal of Kaimo Kuusk, the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Defence – the government released Kuusk from his post this Thursday. The chairman of the Social Democrats, Lauri Läänemets, has already turned to the Chancellor of Justice for an assessment of the correctness of Kuusk's dismissal. The way the Permanent Secretary was let go, whether in substance or at least in manner, has been criticised by others as well, including some Reform Party politicians in private conversations.

It was not Herem who dismissed Kuusk. The decision was made by the government led by Kristen Michal. The proposal was brought to the government by the outgoing Minister of Defence, Hanno Pevkur. In other words, Pevkur appointed Kuusk as Permanent Secretary in his time, and as one of his last acts, Pevkur is now also removing Kuusk from office. At the same time, everyone understands that Herem's wish is behind the dismissal of the Permanent Secretary. It was one of his preconditions for accepting the post of Minister of Defence at all.

Besides Michal and Herem, no one else knows all the details of how their negotiations went. But the most important part, that Michal asked Herem if he would be willing to consider the post of Minister of Defence, was immediately public. One source connected to the Reform Party even says that at one point, a situation of sorts may have arisen where there was no other choice. Herem's name was on the table, everyone knew, the press was discussing it, a star choice, famous and with a good reputation – how could Michal or the board of the Reform Party decide otherwise: no, we don't want Herem, let's take Timpson instead.

Now that the initial emotions have subsided, however, hesitant anxiety can also be heard from the Reform Party, admitting that there are a number of risks associated with Herem. Kristen Michal has said that Herem has a solid plan. But does he really, and if so, what is Herem's plan? Herem certainly has an attitude that could be called a desire for urgency – all his statements in the last week have revolved around speed and haste, that attitudes must be changed, that we must act faster, change the rules in order to act. But that is not a plan.

Michal wanted a star name for the post of Minister of Defence. He got his star now, but it didn't come for free.

The foregoing is not an accusation against Herem. He is on holiday abroad. All the information about his various thoughts that has trickled into the media over the past week has come through brief phone calls. Herem has not yet met with the Reform Party (or other parties) to talk about what he wants to accomplish in 6–7 months. The public doesn't know, the government doesn't know, and the Reform Party doesn't know. This is a risk.

Herem is not a politician. He is not joining the Reform Party at this time, and that was also a precondition. Herem is not thinking in the context of the Riigikogu elections in March. This means that if Herem discovers some mess in the Ministry of Defence, he will not keep it under wraps – everyone will find out. But who has been in charge of the Ministry of Defence for the last four years? A Reform Party minister, of course, so if such a conflict were to arise, it would land on the Reform Party's desk. Or if Herem thinks that the government or other ministries are not acting in the way or at the speed he would like, he will not start deliberating in terms of the election campaign, thinking let's hold the line and keep quiet. Everyone will find out about it. Another political problem.

This Friday, a mini-conflict already arose between Herem and the outgoing Minister of Defence, Pevkur. Herem said that threat assessments regarding Russia need to be updated. Pevkur replied (ERR, 11.09) that an intelligence early warning must not be a political order. Who is right and who is not is a separate issue, but again, Herem has not even taken office as Minister of Defence yet, and there is already some friction.

Speaking to Postimees on Monday morning, Herem predicted that he would have a conflict with generals. He did not mean the currently serving generals of the Defence Forces, but rather high-ranking retired military officers, some of whom are also in the Riigikogu. A few days later, a joint address by six high-ranking retired military officers was published (with Meelis Kiili and Leo Kunnas being members of the Riigikogu's National Defence Committee), which, while polite in style, was critical of Herem's intentions in substance.

No one can predict whether or how a conflict might arise for Herem with the government, the prime minister, other ministers, or the Reform Party. Michal wanted a star name for the post of Minister of Defence. He got his star now, but it didn't come for free.