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ME/CFS QSP Model

Myalgic Encephalomyelitis / Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Mechanistic Map


Disease Overview

Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) is a complex, debilitating multi-system disease affecting an estimated 17–24 million people in the USA and 0.3–2.8% of the global population. It is characterized by:

  • Post-Exertional Malaise (PEM): The pathological hallmark — worsening of symptoms 24-72h after physical or cognitive exertion
  • Profound fatigue: Not relieved by rest, unrelated to activity level
  • Cognitive impairment ("brain fog"): Memory deficits, processing speed reduction
  • Autonomic dysfunction: POTS, orthostatic intolerance, reduced HRV
  • Unrefreshing sleep: Altered REM/Stage 3 architecture
  • Pain: Central sensitization, myalgia, headache

The disease frequently follows viral infections (EBV, HHV-6, SARS-CoV-2, enteroviruses), establishing it as a post-infectious syndrome with persistent immune activation and metabolic dysregulation.


Pathophysiology

Core Mechanistic Pillars

System Mechanism Key Finding
Immune NK cell dysfunction 30-50% reduced cytotoxicity
Immune CD8+ T cell exhaustion PD-1/LAG-3/TIM-3 upregulation
Immune Autoantibodies β2-Adrenergic receptor + M1-Muscarinic autoAb in ~60%
Mitochondrial PDH inhibition PDK1↑ (IFN-γ driven) → Warburg-like shift
Mitochondrial ATP deficit Complex I/IV activity ↓, ETC impairment
Neurological Neuroinflammation TSPO PET (¹¹C-PK11195) signal ↑ in brain
Neurological Kynurenine pathway IDO1↑ → Quinolinic acid ↑ → Hippocampal damage
Autonomic POTS β2AR autoAb → dysautonomia
Autonomic Hypocortisolism HPA axis suppression, GR resistance
MCAS Mast cell activation Tryptase ↑, histamine-mediated neuroinflammation

Critical Mechanistic Cascade: IFN-γ → PDK1 → PDH → ATP Deficit

Viral persistence / Immune activation
    ↓
IFN-γ ↑ (Th1/NK)
    ↓
PDK1 ↑ (Pyruvate Dehydrogenase Kinase 1)
    ↓
PDH ↓ (Pyruvate Dehydrogenase — phosphorylated/inhibited)
    ↓
Pyruvate → Lactate (instead of Acetyl-CoA → TCA cycle)
    ↓
↓ NADH → ↓ Complex I → ↓ ATP synthesis
    ↓
ATP Deficit → Fatigue + PEM (anaerobic threshold ↓)

This "Warburg-like" metabolic shift in immune/muscle cells was confirmed by:

  • Fluge et al. (2017) JCI Insight: metabolic profiling
  • Naviaux et al. (2016) PNAS: CDe metabolomics
  • Tomas et al. (2017) PNAS: metabolite profiling

QSP Model Files

File Description
mecfs_qsp_model.dot Graphviz mechanistic map (220+ nodes, 12 subgraphs)
mecfs_qsp_model.svg High-resolution vector image
mecfs_qsp_model.png Rasterized image (150 dpi)
mecfs_mrgsolve_model.R mrgsolve ODE model (25 compartments, 6 scenarios)
mecfs_shiny_app.R Interactive Shiny dashboard (8 tabs)
mecfs_references.md 62 PubMed-cited references

Mechanistic Map Structure (12 Subgraphs)

  1. Triggering Events & Viral Persistence — EBV, HHV-6, SARS-CoV-2, enteroviruses, latent reservoir
  2. Innate Immune Activation — TLR3/4/7/9, cGAS-STING, IRF3, NLRP3 inflammasome, NK cells, macrophages
  3. Adaptive Immune Dysregulation — T cell exhaustion, B cell dysfunction, autoantibodies (β2AR, M1R)
  4. Cytokine Network — IL-6, TNF-α, IFN-γ, TGF-β, CXCL10, cytokine dysregulation
  5. Mast Cell Activation (MCAS) — MC degranulation, tryptase, histamine, leukotrienes, prostaglandins
  6. HPA Axis & Neuroendocrine — CRH, ACTH, hypocortisolism, GR resistance, circadian disruption
  7. Autonomic Nervous System — POTS, orthostatic intolerance, HRV reduction, RAAS, small fiber neuropathy
  8. Mitochondrial Dysfunction — PDH/PDK1, Complex I-IV, ROS, ATP deficit, NAD+ pool, PGC-1α
  9. Neuroinflammation & CNS — Microglial activation, TSPO, BBB disruption, central sensitization, kynurenine pathway
  10. Post-Exertional Malaise (PEM) — Anaerobic threshold ↓, Day-2 CPET, immune flare, metabolic collapse
  11. Clinical Endpoints & Biomarkers — FSS, SF-36, CPET VO2max, NK cytotoxicity, morning cortisol, HRV RMSSD
  12. Drug PK/PD — LDN, Pyridostigmine, Rituximab, BC007, NAD+ precursors, Rintatolimod, Aripiprazole, IVIG

mrgsolve ODE Model

State Variables (25 Compartments)

Category Variables
Immune V (viral), IFN (Type I), NK (cells), Tex (exhaustion), AutoAb
Cytokines IL6, TNFa, IFNg, NLRP3state
MCAS MC_act, Histamine
HPA Axis CRH, Cortisol
Autonomic NE_plasma, HRV_index
Mitochondrial PDH_act, ATP_state, ROS_state
CNS Neuro_inf, Cog_func
PEM/Fatigue PEM_sens, Fatigue
Drug PK LDN_cp, Pyr_cp, Rit_cp, NADpool

Treatment Scenarios

# Scenario Drug(s) Mechanism
1 No Treatment — Natural history progression
2 LDN Monotherapy LDN 4.5 mg/day TLR4 inhibition → ↓Neuroinflammation
3 Pyridostigmine 30 mg TID AChE inhibition → ANS restoration → POTS↓
4 Rituximab 1000 mg IV ×2 B cell depletion → AutoAb reduction
5 NAD+ Precursors NMN/NR 500 mg/day NAD+ restoration → Sirtuin → PGC-1α → Mito↑
6 Combination LDN + NAD+ + Pyridostigmine Multi-target synergy

Shiny App Features (8 Tabs)

  1. Patient Profile — Disease overview, radar chart, symptom burden timeline, pathophysiology table
  2. PK Profiles — LDN, Pyridostigmine, Rituximab, NAD+ pool kinetics
  3. Immune & Cytokines — IL-6, TNF-α, IFN-γ, NK cells, T cell exhaustion, autoantibodies, MCAS
  4. Mitochondria & Energy — PDH activity, ATP state, ROS, metabolic cascade visualization
  5. Neuroinflammation/CNS — NI index, cognitive function, HPA axis, ANS, kynurenine pathway
  6. Clinical Endpoints — FSS fatigue score, PEM sensitivity, HRV, cortisol, outcome table at 6 months
  7. Scenario Comparison — Multi-treatment comparison with fatigue, ATP, NI, PEM outcomes
  8. Biomarker Dashboard — Bar chart vs. healthy reference, drug target table, response heatmap

Key Pharmacological Targets

Drug Target Evidence Status
LDN (1.5-4.5 mg/d) TLR4 / Microglial Multiple open-label RCTs Phase II
Pyridostigmine (30-60 mg TID) AChE / Vagal tone POTS/ME clinical trials Phase III
Rituximab (1g IV ×2) CD20+ B cells / AutoAb Phase III RCT (negative) Completed
BC007 β2AR autoantibodies Open-label pilot Phase II
NMN/NR (250-500 mg/d) NAD+ / Sirtuins Phase I/II Active
Rintatolimod (Ampligen) TLR3 / Antiviral FDA fast-track Phase III
Aripiprazole (0.5-2 mg/d) D2 partial agonist Open-label Phase II
Cromolyn Mast cell stabilizer Off-label Clinical use
IVIG Fc receptors / Immune modulation Several RCTs Phase II/III

References

See mecfs_references.md for 62 PubMed-cited references organized by:

  • Foundational & Epidemiology (6 refs)
  • Viral Triggers & Pathogen Persistence (5 refs)
  • Immune Dysregulation (6 refs)
  • Autoantibodies & Autonomic Dysfunction (5 refs)
  • Mitochondrial Dysfunction & Energy Metabolism (7 refs)
  • Neuroinflammation & CNS (6 refs)
  • HPA Axis & Neuroendocrine (3 refs)
  • Post-Exertional Malaise (4 refs)
  • MCAS & Mast Cells (3 refs)
  • Pharmacological Treatments (9 refs)
  • QSP & Systems Biology (7 refs)

Date: 2026-06-28 | QSP Library — ME/CFS Model