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CTEPH QSP Model

Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension (CTEPH)

Category Compartments Scenarios References


Overview

Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension (CTEPH) is a life-threatening condition arising from incomplete resolution of pulmonary emboli, leading to permanent mechanical obstruction of the pulmonary vasculature by organized fibrous thrombi. Superimposed on this fixed obstruction, progressive small-vessel disease driven by endothelin-1 overproduction, nitric oxide deficiency, and abnormal shear stress creates an additional variable component of elevated pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR). The combination causes progressive right ventricular pressure overload, remodeling, and ultimately failure.

CTEPH is classified as Group 4 pulmonary hypertension (ESC/ERS 2022). Diagnosis requires:

  • mPAP > 20 mmHg at rest
  • Pulmonary capillary wedge pressure ≤ 15 mmHg (pre-capillary)
  • Mismatched perfusion defects on V/Q scan after ≥ 3 months of therapeutic anticoagulation
  • Confirmation by CT pulmonary angiography or conventional angiography

Disease Mechanism

Acute PE → Incomplete fibrinolysis → Organized thrombus → Fixed PVR obstruction
                 ↓                          ↓
    Thrombophilic state            Secondary vascular remodeling
         + recurrent PE              (ET-1, NO↓, PGI₂↓, SMC proliferation)
                                          ↓
                                   Variable PVR↑
                                          ↓
                                   Total PVR↑ → mPAP↑
                                          ↓
                               RV pressure overload
                                          ↓
                    Adaptive hypertrophy → Dilatation → Failure
                                          ↓
                               CO↓, SaO₂↓, BNP↑, 6MWD↓

Key Pathological Processes

Component Mechanism Clinical Consequence
Fixed PVR Organized thrombus, neointima, fibrosis Mechanical obstruction, V/Q mismatch
Variable PVR ET-1↑, NO↓, PGI₂↓, SMC proliferation Vasomotor constriction, remodeling
RV remodeling Pressure overload, ischemia, fibrosis TAPSE↓, RV EF↓, RV dilation
Gas exchange V/Q mismatch, dead space↑ Hypoxemia, exertional dyspnea
Neurohumoral BNP↑, RAAS activation, sympathetic Sodium retention, arrhythmia

Model Files

File Description
cteph_qsp_model.dot Graphviz mechanistic map source (12 clusters, 134+ nodes)
cteph_qsp_model.svg High-resolution vector mechanistic map
cteph_qsp_model.png 150 dpi raster mechanistic map
cteph_mrgsolve_model.R mrgsolve ODE model (19 compartments, 7 scenarios)
cteph_shiny_app.R Interactive Shiny dashboard (7 tabs)
cteph_references.md 60 PubMed-linked references

Mechanistic Map

CTEPH QSP Mechanistic Map

12 Subgraph Clusters:

  1. Thrombotic Origin & Acute PE — Thrombophilia, platelet activation, recurrent PE
  2. Fibrinolysis Dysfunction — tPA deficiency, PAI-1↑, plasmin↓, fibrin cross-linking
  3. Pulmonary Vascular Remodeling — ET-1, NO↓, PDGF, TGF-β, SMC proliferation, plexiform lesions
  4. Hemodynamics — mPAP, PVR (fixed + variable), CO, TPG, PCWP
  5. Right Ventricular Remodeling — Hypertrophy, dilatation, fibrosis, TAPSE, RVEF
  6. Gas Exchange — V/Q mismatch, dead space, PaO₂, SaO₂, DLCO
  7. Neurohumoral Biomarkers — BNP, RAAS, ET-1, troponin, D-dimer
  8. Riociguat PK/PD — sGC stimulation, cGMP↑, vasodilation, anti-proliferative
  9. ERA PK/PD — Macitentan/ACT-132577, ETA/ETB blockade, anti-fibrotic
  10. Prostacyclin PK/PD — Treprostinil, IP receptor, cAMP↑, platelet inhibition
  11. Surgical/Procedural — PEA (≥70% PVR reduction), BPA (staged), anticoagulation
  12. Clinical Endpoints — 6MWD, WHO FC, dyspnea, BNP, survival, TTCW

mrgsolve ODE Model

Compartments (19 total)

Drug PK (7):

# State Variable Description
1 C1_RIO Riociguat central (ng/mL)
2 C2_RIO Riociguat peripheral
3 MET_RIO M1 active metabolite
4 C1_MAC Macitentan central (ng/mL)
5 C2_MAC Macitentan peripheral
6 MET_MAC ACT-132577 active metabolite
7 C1_TREP Treprostinil central (ng/mL)

Disease PD (12):

# State Variable Description
8 TB Thrombotic burden (0–1, normalized)
9 PVR_fixed Fixed PVR — thrombus (dyn·s/cm⁵)
10 PVR_var Variable PVR — vasomotor/remodeling
11 ET1 Plasma endothelin-1 (pg/mL)
12 cGMP cGMP second messenger (pmol/mL)
13 cAMP cAMP second messenger (pmol/mL)
14 RV_work RV stroke work index (g·m/m²)
15 mPAP Mean pulmonary artery pressure (mmHg)
16 CO Cardiac output (L/min)
17 SaO2 Arterial O₂ saturation (%)
18 BNP BNP plasma level (pg/mL)
19 sixMWD 6-minute walk distance (m)

Treatment Scenarios

Scenario Intervention Expected 6MWD Change PVR Change
1 No treatment Decline ~−20 m/yr Progressive ↑
2 Anticoagulation only Stable Stable (no regression)
3 Riociguat 2.5 mg TID +46 m (wk16, CHEST-1) −31%
4 Macitentan 10 mg QD +35–40 m −25%
5 Riociguat + Macitentan +60–75 m −45%
6 BPA (5 sessions) + Riociguat +70–90 m −50%
7 Post-PEA + Riociguat + Macitentan +120–150 m −75%

Key PK Parameters

Drug CL (L/h) Vc (L) t½ (h) Tmax (h) F (%)
Riociguat 2.4 30 8.7 1.5 94
Macitentan 1.1 50 31 8 75
ACT-132577 0.55 60 75 — —
Treprostinil 4.0 14 2.4 — 79 (SC)

Shiny Dashboard (7 Tabs)

Tab Content
1. Patient Profile Baseline hemodynamics, biomarkers, procedural history, disease severity table
2. Pharmacokinetics PK concentration-time profiles for all 3 drugs + metabolites, PK parameter tables
3. PD Signals cGMP/cAMP dynamics, ET-1, PVR decomposition (fixed vs variable), thrombotic burden
4. Hemodynamics mPAP, total PVR, CO, SaO₂, RV stroke work, hemodynamic summary table
5. Clinical Endpoints 6MWD, BNP, WHO FC, waterfall change plot, efficacy summary at Wk16/Wk52
6. Scenario Comparison Side-by-side comparison of 7 predefined clinical scenarios
7. Biomarkers BNP/ET-1/TB trajectories, ESC/ERS risk stratification, current risk profile

Running the App

install.packages(c("shiny","shinydashboard","mrgsolve","dplyr","tidyr",
                   "ggplot2","plotly","DT"))
library(shiny)
shiny::runApp("cteph_shiny_app.R")

Clinical Background

Epidemiology

  • Incidence: ~3–5% of acute PE survivors develop CTEPH
  • Prevalence: ~3–30 per million (likely underdiagnosed)
  • Male:Female ratio ≈ 1:1
  • Median survival without treatment: ~2–3 years from diagnosis

Prognosis by Hemodynamics

mPAP 5-Year Survival
25–35 mmHg ~70–80%
35–55 mmHg ~40–60%
>55 mmHg <20%

Treatment Algorithm

Confirmed CTEPH diagnosis
         ↓
Lifelong anticoagulation (essential for all)
         ↓
CTEPH Expert Center multidisciplinary team assessment
         ↓
Is the patient operable? (proximal disease, good cardiopulmonary reserve)
    /           \
  YES            NO
   ↓              ↓
  PEA         Residual/inoperable CTEPH
(curative)         ↓
                Riociguat ± Macitentan
                   ± BPA (if accessible)
                   ± Prostacyclin (severe cases)

References

60 references covering:

  • ESC/ERS clinical guidelines (2022)
  • CHEST-1/CHEST-2 (riociguat), SERAPHIN (macitentan), MERIT-1 (combination)
  • PEA outcomes (Madani et al., Jamieson et al.)
  • BPA technique and results (Mizoguchi, Wiedenroth, Ogawa)
  • QSP/PK-PD modeling methodology

See cteph_references.md for the complete reference list.


Built by Claude Code Routine | QSP Disease Model Library | 2026-06-26