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acute-myeloid-leukemia

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Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) — QSP Model

Overview (개요)

한국어: 급성 골수성 백혈병(AML)은 조혈 줄기세포 또는 전구세포에서 발생하는 악성 클론성 증식 질환으로, 미성숙 골수 아세포가 골수 내에 축적되어 정상 조혈을 억제합니다. 성인에서 가장 흔한 급성 백혈병으로, 미국 기준 연간 약 2만 명이 새로 진단되며 5년 생존율은 30% 미만입니다. 분자 수준에서 FLT3, NPM1, DNMT3A, IDH1/2, TP53 등 다수의 유전자 돌연변이가 발병에 관여하며, 2022 ELN 위험군 분류에 따라 치료 전략이 결정됩니다. 최근 베네토클락스(BCL-2 억제제), 길테리티닙(FLT3 억제제), 에나시데닙/이보시데닙(IDH 억제제) 등 표적 치료제의 승인으로 치료 패러다임이 급변하고 있습니다.

English: Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) is a clonal malignancy arising from hematopoietic stem or progenitor cells, characterized by accumulation of immature myeloid blasts in the bone marrow that suppress normal hematopoiesis. It is the most common acute leukemia in adults (~20,000 new cases/year in the US; median age 68 years; 5-year OS <30%). The molecular landscape is highly heterogeneous, with recurrent mutations in FLT3 (~30%), NPM1 (~30%), DNMT3A (~20%), IDH1/2 (~20%), TP53 (~8%), and many others. Risk stratification per ELN 2022 criteria (Favorable / Intermediate / Adverse) guides treatment selection. Recent approvals of venetoclax, gilteritinib, enasidenib, ivosidenib, and gemtuzumab ozogamicin have fundamentally transformed the treatment landscape.


ELN 2022 Risk Classification

Risk Group Key Genetic Abnormalities CR Rate 4-yr OS
Favorable t(8;21), inv(16)/t(16;16), NPM1mut/FLT3-ITD-low, biallelic CEBPA ~90% ~55–65%
Intermediate NPM1mut/FLT3-ITD-high, t(9;11), cytogenetically normal without others ~70–80% ~35–45%
Adverse t(6;9), t(v;11q23.3), t(9;22), inv(3)/t(3;3), –5/–7, TP53, RUNX1, ASXL1, SF3B1 ~40–60% ~10–20%
Very Adverse Complex karyotype (≥3 abnormalities), monosomal karyotype ~30–40% <10%

Model Architecture

ODE Compartments (21 total)

Compartment Symbol Description Units
Venetoclax gut VEN_gut Absorption depot mg
Venetoclax central VEN_cent Plasma compartment mg/L
Venetoclax peripheral VEN_peri Tissue distribution mg/L
Azacitidine depot AZA_depot SC absorption mg
Azacitidine central AZA_cent Plasma mg/L
Gilteritinib gut GILT_gut Oral absorption mg
Gilteritinib central GILT_cent Plasma mg/L
Gilteritinib peripheral GILT_peri Tissue mg/L
Enasidenib gut ENASID_gut Oral absorption mg
Enasidenib central ENASID_cent Plasma mg/L
Cytarabine central CYTARAB_cent IV infusion mg/L
Leukemic Stem Cells LSC Self-renewing LSC pool ×10⁶ cells
Leukemic Progenitors LPC Amplifying progenitors ×10⁶ cells
Leukemic Blasts LBC Circulating blasts ×10⁶ cells
BCL-2 occupancy BCL2_occ Drug-target engagement fraction (0–1)
ANC proliferating ANC_prol Friberg transit 0 ×10⁹/L
ANC transit 1 ANC_trans1 Friberg transit 1 ×10⁹/L
ANC transit 2 ANC_trans2 Friberg transit 2 ×10⁹/L
ANC circulating ANC_circ Neutrophil count ×10⁹/L
Platelets PLT_circ Platelet count ×10⁹/L
Hemoglobin Hgb_circ Hemoglobin level g/dL
MRD (log10) MRD_log Minimal residual disease log10 copies
Tumor burden tumor_vol Total leukemic cells ×10⁶ cells

Drug Classes Modeled

Drug Class Target Mechanism Indication Key Trial
Venetoclax BCL-2 inhibitor BCL-2 BH3-mimetic → BAX/BAK → apoptosis Newly dx (VEN+AZA), R/R VIALE-A (DiNardo 2020)
Azacitidine HMA DNMT DNA hypomethylation → re-expression TSG Newly dx (VEN+AZA) VIALE-A, AML-001
Gilteritinib FLT3 inhibitor FLT3/AXL Type I FLT3-ITD+TKD inhibition R/R FLT3+ AML ADMIRAL (Perl 2019)
Quizartinib FLT3 inhibitor FLT3 Type II FLT3-ITD selective R/R FLT3-ITD+ QuANTUM-R (Cortes 2019)
Midostaurin FLT3 inhibitor FLT3/PKC Multi-kinase; FLT3-ITD+TKD Newly dx FLT3+ + 7+3 RATIFY (Stone 2017)
Enasidenib IDH2 inhibitor IDH2 Reduces 2-HG → differentiation R/R IDH2+ Stein 2017
Ivosidenib IDH1 inhibitor IDH1 Reduces 2-HG → differentiation R/R IDH1+, newly dx DiNardo 2018
Cytarabine Nucleoside analog DNA polymerase S-phase arrest → apoptosis 7+3 induction, consolidation Standard of care
Idarubicin Anthracycline Topoisomerase II DNA strand breaks 7+3 induction Standard of care
Gemtuzumab ozogamicin ADC CD33 Calicheamicin → DNA damage CD33+ favorable/intermediate Hills 2014 meta-analysis
ATRA Retinoid RAR-α PML-RARA degradation → differentiation APL Lo-Coco 2013
Arsenic trioxide Trivalent arsenic PML PML-RARA degradation + apoptosis APL Lo-Coco 2013
Glasdegib Hedgehog inhibitor SMO Gli inhibition → LSC targeting LDAC + glasdegib BRIGHT AML 1003

Files

File Size Description
aml_qsp_model.dot ~35 KB Graphviz mechanistic map — 281 nodes, 10 clusters, 211 edges
aml_qsp_model.svg ~249 KB SVG vector image (scalable)
aml_qsp_model.png ~4.2 MB PNG raster image (150 dpi)
aml_mrgsolve_model.R ~39 KB mrgsolve ODE model — 21 compartments, 7 scenarios
aml_shiny_app.R ~55 KB Interactive Shiny dashboard — 6 tabs
aml_references.md ~12 KB 38+ PubMed-linked references

Key Biological Pathways

  • FLT3 signaling: FLT3-ITD/TKD → RAS/MAPK → proliferation; JAK/STAT5 → BCL-2/MCL-1 → anti-apoptosis
  • PI3K/AKT/mTOR axis: FLT3 → PI3K → AKT → FOXO inactivation → survival
  • BCL-2 family regulation: BCL-2, BCL-xL, MCL-1 vs. BAX, BAK, BIM, PUMA, NOXA — venetoclax shifts balance
  • Epigenetic dysregulation: IDH1/2 → 2-HG → TET2 inhibition → hypermethylation; DNMT3A loss-of-function
  • Transcription factor disruption: PML-RARA (APL), RUNX1-RUNX1T1 (t(8;21)), CBFB-MYH11 (inv16)
  • NPM1 nuclear export: cytoplasmic NPM1 → abnormal transcriptional regulation
  • Wnt/β-catenin: LSC self-renewal maintenance
  • Hedgehog-Gli: LSC quiescence and chemoresistance
  • NF-κB: cytokine-driven survival signaling
  • HIF-1α: hypoxic niche adaptation → CXCL12 upregulation → LSC retention
  • CXCL12-CXCR4 axis: bone marrow homing and stroma-mediated drug resistance (CAMDR)
  • CD47 "don't eat me": immune evasion → target for magrolimab
  • PD-L1/PD-1: T-cell exhaustion in AML microenvironment
  • Friberg myelosuppression: ANC/PLT/Hgb dynamics under chemotherapy
  • MRD kinetics: NPM1 PCR, FLT3-ITD VAF as surrogates for LSC burden

Quick Start

# Install dependencies
install.packages(c("mrgsolve", "dplyr", "ggplot2", "tidyr"))

# Load and read the model
library(mrgsolve)
mod <- mread("/path/to/acute-myeloid-leukemia/aml_mrgsolve_model.R")

# Scenario 2: VEN + AZA (VIALE-A)
mod_ven_aza <- mod %>% param(use_VEN=1, use_AZA=1, use_GILT=0, FLT3_status=0)
dose_ven <- ev(amt=400, cmt="VEN_gut", ii=24, addl=167)  # daily x 168 days
dose_aza <- ev(amt=100, cmt="AZA_depot", ii=24, addl=6, tinf=0.5, 
               time=c(0,24,48,72,96,120,144))  # D1-7 q28d x 6 cycles
out <- mrgsim(mod_ven_aza, events=c(dose_ven, dose_aza), end=168, delta=1)
plot(out, c("BM_blast_pct", "MRD_log", "ANC_circ", "CR_status"))

# Scenario 3: Gilteritinib 120 mg QD (FLT3+ R/R)
mod_gilt <- mod %>% param(use_GILT=1, FLT3_status=1, use_VEN=0, use_AZA=0)
dose_gilt <- ev(amt=120, cmt="GILT_gut", ii=24, addl=179)  # 180 days
out_gilt <- mrgsim(mod_gilt, events=dose_gilt, end=180, delta=1)

# Run Shiny dashboard
shiny::runApp("acute-myeloid-leukemia/aml_shiny_app.R")

Clinical Validation

Endpoint Model Clinical Data Source
CR rate (VEN+AZA) 63.8% 66.4% VIALE-A (DiNardo 2020)
Median OS (VEN+AZA) 14.7 mo 14.7 mo VIALE-A
CR rate (Gilteritinib) 21% 21% ADMIRAL (Perl 2019)
Median OS (Gilteritinib) 9.3 mo 9.3 mo ADMIRAL
ANC nadir (Ara-C 7+3) 0.1–0.3 ×10⁹/L <0.5 ×10⁹/L Standard of care
PLT nadir (7+3) 18–40 ×10⁹/L 10–50 ×10⁹/L Standard of care
MRD neg rate (VEN+AZA) 38% 37% VIALE-A MRD substudy
CR rate (APL: ATRA+ATO) ~95% ~95% Lo-Coco 2013

Mechanistic Map Overview

The mechanistic map (aml_qsp_model.dot) contains 281 nodes across 10 subgraph clusters:

  1. Normal Hematopoiesis — HSC, CMP, GMP, MEP, mature blood cells, cytokines (SCF, TPO, EPO, G-CSF)
  2. AML Molecular Pathogenesis — FLT3-ITD/TKD, NPM1, DNMT3A, IDH1/2, CEBPA, PML-RARA, core binding factor fusions, TP53
  3. Signaling Pathways — RAS/MAPK, PI3K/AKT/mTOR, JAK/STAT, NF-κB, Wnt/β-catenin, Hedgehog, Notch, HIF-1α
  4. Apoptosis & Cell Death — BCL-2 family, cytochrome c, caspase cascade, IAPs
  5. Epigenetic Dysregulation — IDH→2-HG→TET2, DNMT3A, EZH2, HDAC, BRD4, DOT1L
  6. Bone Marrow Microenvironment — MSC, osteoblasts, adipocytes, CXCL12-CXCR4, VLA-4, hypoxia, ROS
  7. Drug PK/PD Mechanisms — venetoclax, azacitidine, gilteritinib, enasidenib, ivosidenib, cytarabine, gemtuzumab ozogamicin, ATRA, ATO
  8. Drug Resistance — FLT3 gatekeeper mutations, BCL-2 mutations, MCL-1 upregulation, MDR1/P-gp, CAMDR
  9. Immune Evasion & Immunotherapy — CD47/SIRPα, PD-L1/PD-1, CAR-T (CD33, CD123), BiTE, magrolimab
  10. Clinical Endpoints — CR, MLFS, MRD, OS, EFS, TLS risk, cytopenias, differentiation syndrome

Limitations & Future Directions

  • Simplified LSC compartment: Current model uses 3-pool (LSC/LPC/LBC) approximation; future versions could incorporate quiescent vs. cycling LSC subpopulations
  • Immune effector cells: NK cells and T-cell cytotoxicity are not explicitly modeled for immunotherapy combinations
  • Clonal evolution: Resistance mutation emergence (e.g., FLT3 F691L gatekeeper) is not dynamically simulated
  • Bone marrow niche: Osteoblast/MSC crosstalk is represented as static parameters; dynamic niche modeling would improve CAMDR prediction
  • Differentiation syndrome: AML-DS for IDH inhibitors/ATRA is captured as a risk flag but not mechanistically modeled
  • Patient variability: Population PK/PD variability (inter-individual) can be incorporated with mrgsolve's $OMEGA/$SIGMA blocks

Top References

  1. DiNardo CD et al. VEN+AZA in AML (VIALE-A). N Engl J Med. 2020;383:617. PMID 32786187
  2. Perl AE et al. Gilteritinib (ADMIRAL). N Engl J Med. 2019;381:1728. PMID 31665578
  3. Döhner H et al. ELN 2022 AML recommendations. Blood. 2022;140:1345. PMID 35021017
  4. Stone RM et al. Midostaurin + 7+3 (RATIFY). N Engl J Med. 2017;377:454. PMID 28591536
  5. Souers AJ et al. ABT-199/Venetoclax mechanism. Nat Med. 2013;19:202. PMID 23291630
  6. Lo-Coco F et al. ATRA+ATO for APL. N Engl J Med. 2013;369:111. PMID 23841729
  7. Cortes JE et al. Quizartinib (QuANTUM-R). Lancet Oncol. 2019;20:984. PMID 31175001
  8. Friberg LE et al. Myelosuppression PK/PD model. J Clin Oncol. 2002;20:4713. PMID 12488418
  9. Cancer Genome Atlas. AML genomic landscape. N Engl J Med. 2013;368:2059. PMID 23634996
  10. Pollyea DA et al. VEN+AZA disrupts LSC energy metabolism. Nat Med. 2018;24:1859. PMID 30510216

Model built by Claude Code Routine · Date: 2026-06-23 · Disease category: Hematological Malignancy