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cases.md

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Three verifiable cases — real repos, real links, real numbers

Generated with costgrep v0.2.1 on 2026-10-02. Every case lists: the story, the numbers, links to the actual PRs and workflow runs, and the one command to reproduce. Sample = last ≤200 runs per repo (busy repos ≈ one day of traffic; window stated per case). List-price model — what this compute costs at GitHub's 2026 price list (see caveats in the benchmark). Evidence CSV per repo sits next to this file.


Case 1 — GitHub's own repo: agents are already the majority CI user

Repo: github/gh-aw — GitHub's product repo for Agentic Workflows. Window: 200 runs on 2026-10-02 (one day).

who triggers CI runs share of runs share of spend
AI agents (Copilot) 107 53.5% 28.8% ($1.15 of $3.97)
humans 83 41.5% 65.2%
bots 10 5.0% 6.0%

Why run-share exceeds cost-share: most of the agent runs were still awaiting human approval (action_required — 0 jobs executed, 0 compute). The agent creates the runs; the minutes burn once they're approved.

See it yourself:

  • Agent run (raw check): actions/runs/36993383799 — workflow "Addressing comment on PR #64994", triggering_actor: Copilot, job 22m43s → 23 billable min × $0.006 = $0.1380 (matches our CSV row exactly).
  • The PR the agent was fixing: gh-aw#64994.
  • A whole agent-driven workflow: "Running Copilot Code Review" in the repo's Actions tab.

Reproduce:

node scripts/costgrep.mjs --repo github/gh-aw --days 1 --max-runs 200 --csv-file gh-aw.csv

Case 2 — An indie developer whose CI is now agent-majority

Repo: Otisigma/halo-world-global-platform — a solo-maintained hobby project. Window: 200 runs, 2026-09-30 → 10-02.

who triggers CI runs share of runs share of spend
AI agents (Copilot) 92 46.0% 56.9% ($1.28 of $2.26)
humans ~98 49.0% 39%
bots 10 5.0% 4%

Nearly half the pipeline runs and more than half the compute value in this repo is triggered by a coding agent, not by the maintainer. The workflow is literally named "Running Copilot cloud agent".

See it yourself:

Bonus — agents work in serious repos too: zooba/pymsbuild (maintainer = a CPython core developer): 7 of 25 runs (28%) in the window triggered by Copilot, incl. PR #125 "Expose target Python and wheel-tag properties to MSBuild".

Reproduce:

node scripts/costgrep.mjs --repo Otisigma/halo-world-global-platform --days 3 --max-runs 200

Case 3 — "Public repo" ≠ "free CI": the macOS bill in microsoft/vscode

Repo: microsoft/vscode. Window: 200 runs on 2026-10-02 (one day). List-price value of the sample: $139.08.

runner class jobs minutes list-price $ billed on a public repo?
macOS 5-core M2 Pro (macos_xl) 104 1,173 $119.65 YES
macOS standard 23 64 $3.97 YES
Linux standard 306 2,460 $14.76 no (free for public repos)
Windows standard 22 71 $0.71 no
self-hosted 248 2,194 $0.00 n/a

89% of the compute value in this sample ($123.61) sits in runner classes GitHub bills even for public repositories. Public repos get Linux/Windows standard minutes free — macOS (and larger) runners are the exception, and in macOS-heavy projects they are the bill. This repo also shows 15 agent-triggered runs (7.5%) — agents and billed runners compound.

See it yourself: e.g. actions/runs/37000636285 ("Code OSS", 12 min on a 5-core macOS runner — $1.22 at list price), or open any recent run of the Code OSS build workflow and check the runner label.

Reproduce:

node scripts/costgrep.mjs --repo microsoft/vscode --days 1 --max-runs 200 --csv-file vscode.csv

Why these numbers are trustworthy

  1. Every repo has a per-job CSV next to this file — recompute minutes × rate in any spreadsheet; the sums equal the headline totals (verified to the cent).
  2. The attribution column is the API's own triggering_actor.login, unmodified — click any run link above and compare.
  3. Deterministic: same repo + window → same numbers. Rate table: GitHub's published 2026 list prices (source linked in every report's provenance block).
  4. Costgrep itself states the money caveats in every output: list-price vs invoice, public-repo freeness, rate-fallback jobs.