Next Thuringian state election
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2029
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All 88 seats in the Landtag of Thuringia 45 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next election to the Landtag of Thuringia is scheduled for 2029.
Background
[edit]In the 2024 Thuringian state election, the AfD became the first far-right party in Germany since the Nazi Party to win a plurality of seats in a state election.[1] The Thuringian AfD is led by Björn Höcke. However, Mario Voigt from the CDU was elected Minister-President on the first ballot with 51 votes in favor, 33 votes against, and 4 abstentions. His party formed a minority coalition with the SPD and the BSW. To achieve confirmation and reach the necessary majority, the Left – which positioned itself as "constructive opposition" – provided some of the votes in favor.[2] With the early 2026 collapse of the SPD–BSW fourth Woidke cabinet in Brandenburg due to several BSW MdLs leaving the party, this is the only coalition involving the BSW in any state.
Coalition crisis and constructive votes of no confidence
[edit]In January 2026, TU Chemnitz revoked Voigt's doctorate degree after confirming allegations that part of his dissertation was plagiarized. The AfD filed a constructive vote of no confidence in response with Höcke as the proposed Minister-President, which failed with 33 votes out of the necessary 45 in favor.[3]
In August, after Voigt's appeal against the revocation was denied, Höcke proposed another constructive vote of no confidence but with Sahra Wagenknecht as the Minister-President candidate instead. The AfD and BSW would have a majority together, and Wagenknecht previously stated that the BSW should support a potential AfD government under an independent Minister-President if her party enters the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt at the 2026 election.[4] She called the proposal "neither honest nor serious" but added that Voigt had lost trust and the state party should revoke its support.[5]
On 17 August, two BSW MdLs, Anke Wirsing and Sven Küntzel, released a statement that they had lost confidence in Voigt. With the presence of the Left working with the government as a constructive opposition, this did not itself bring down the government. Wagenknecht again called for the end of the coalition and the installation of an independent Minister-President who would work with all parties.[6] State party leader Katja Wolf criticized Wagenknecht and federal BSW leadership for carrying out "intentional destabilization" of the coalition, which she said was working quietly and constructively together.[7]
On 19 August, the AfD formally proposed the second constructive vote of no confidence – once again with Höcke as the replacement candidate – to be voted on in a special session on 28 August. The vote once again failed with 33 votes in favor, 49 against, 3 abstaining, 2 invalid ballots and 1 absent.[8]
On 2 September, three BSW MdLs – Dirk Hoffmeister, Roberto Kobel and Stefan Wogawa – left the party and formed their own parliamentary group Your Vote Counts. The three stated that continuing parliamentary work was impossible within the shadow of what they called an "ever-crazier federal leadership".[9] Höcke told the press his party would move to dissolve the Landtag and hold a snap election, though doing so would require a two-thirds majority vote.[10]
This was followed by ten additional BSW MdLs, including Wolf, leaving the party on 4 September along with nearly all of the state executive committee. In a press conference, Wolf said "we were not elected to flirt with right-wing radicals", referring to Wagenknecht's increased public pressure for her party to end its participation in the coalition and the long-standing firewall policy and work with the AfD. They founded the new party Thuringia.Just (TG) on 10 September and continued supporting the government.[11]
Opinion polls
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit]
Party polling
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
AfD | CDU | BSW | Linke | SPD | Grüne | FDP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INSA | 23–30 Jun 2026 | 1,000 | 40 | 22 | 7 | 16 | 6 | 4 | – | 5 | 18 |
| INSA | 27 Mar – 7 Apr 2026 | 1,000 | 39 | 24 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 15 |
| INSA | 27 Jan – 2 Feb 2026 | 1,000 | 38 | 24 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 3 | – | 7 | 14 |
| INSA | 2–9 Dec 2025 | 1,000 | 39 | 24 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 15 |
| INSA | 2–9 Sep 2025 | 1,000 | 37 | 25 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 3 | – | 5 | 12 |
| INSA | 29 Apr – 6 May 2025 | 1,000 | 35 | 24 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | – | 5 | 11 |
| 2025 federal election | 23 Feb 2025 | – | 38.6 | 18.6 | 9.4 | 15.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 2.8 | - | 20.0 |
| INSA | 27 Jan – 3 Feb 2025 | 1,000 | 35 | 25 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 4 | – | 5 | 10 |
| INSA | 2–9 Dec 2024 | 1,000 | 34 | 25 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 4 | – | 4 | 9 |
| INSA | 28 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 | 1,000 | 34 | 25 | 14 | 13 | 6 | – | – | 8 | 9 |
| 2024 state election | 1 Sep 2024 | – | 32.8 | 23.6 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 9.2 |
Minister-President polling
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
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 |
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Other/Don't know | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Höcke AfD |
Voigt CDU |
Wolf TG |
Maier SPD | |||||
| INSA | 27 Mar – 7 Apr 2026 | 1,000 | 20 | 18 | 9[a] | 6 | 47 | 2 |
| INSA | 27 Jan – 3 Feb 2025 | 1,000 | 21 | 26 | — | — | 43 | 5 |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ↑ Polled as a member of the BSW. She left the party in September 2026 and formed her own party Thüringen.Gerecht.
References
[edit]- ↑ "German far right wins first major election since World War II". The Washington Post. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 1 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
- ↑ "Thüringen: Erster Wahlgang: CDU-Chef Mario Voigt ist neuer Ministerpräsident von Thüringen". tagesschau.de (in German). 12 December 2024.
- ↑ "Thüringen: AfD-Misstrauensvotum: Voigt bleibt Ministerpräsident - Höcke gescheitert". mdr.de (in German). 4 February 2026.
- ↑ "Höcke will Wagenknecht zur Ministerpräsidentin machen: „Ich reiche Ihnen die Hand" - WELT". DIE WELT (in German). 13 August 2026.
- ↑ Eydlin, Alexander (13 August 2026). "Thüringen: Wagenknecht weist Ministerpräsidentinnen-Vorschlag von Höcke zurück". Die Zeit (in German).
- ↑ "Thüringen: Brombeer-Koalition bröckelt – zwei BSW-Abgeordnete tragen Voigts Regierung nicht mehr mit - WELT". DIE WELT (in German). 17 August 2026.
- ↑ ""Thüringen als Spielball" - BSW plant Sonderparteitag nach Wagenknecht-Streit". mdr.de (in German). 18 August 2026.
- ↑ "AfD-Chef Höcke als Ministerpräsident? So lief die Abstimmung". mdr.de (in German).
- ↑ Voigt, Eric (2 September 2026). "Thüringen: Drei Abgeordnete verlassen Thüringer BSW-Fraktion". Die Zeit (in German).
- ↑ "Weitere Abgeordnete verlassen BSW - und gründen neue Partei". mdr.de (in German).
- ↑ "BSW zerfällt in Thüringen: Was bedeutet das jetzt für Regierung und Landtag?". mdr.de (in German). 4 September 2026.
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