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Curve Ball book cover, ISBN 9780387988160

Curve Ball

by Albert, Jim; Bennett, Jay

ISBN13: 9780387988160
ISBN10: 0387988165
eBook ISBN(s): 9780387215129
Format: Hardcover
Copyright: 2001-07-01
Publisher: Copernicus Books

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Summary

Updated with data from the 2002 season, and with new essays on superstar Barry Bonds and the first ever all- Wild-Card World Series, this new paperback edition of the 2001 SABR-Award-winning original hardcover explains why standard statistics are of limited usefulness in evaluating a player, developing an inning-by-inning strategy, or predicting which team will come out on top. The authors' most significant contribution to the seemingly endless arguments about baseball stats is their inclusion of the statistical principles of probability to analyze the game and the players.

Table of Contents

Simple Models From Tabletop Baseball Games

1

(26)

How simple tabletop games can be used to simulate the game, and particularly the interactions of pitchers and batters

Exploring Baseball Data

27

(24)

Some basic graphical and descriptive techniques used by statisticians, and the interesting hitting and pitching patterns they reveal

Introducing Probability

51

(20)

The difference between a ballplayer's ability and his performance, and how probability is used to model the role of chance in performance

Situational Effects

71

(40)

A look at situational hitting data (home/away, grass/turf, night/day), along with how well changes of situation account for variations in performance

Streakiness (Or, The Hot Hand)

111

(34)

What we mean when we say a player or team is ``hot'' or ``cold''---an assessment of what's genuinely streaky, and when observed streakiness represents chance variation

Measuring Offensive Performance

145

(32)

Going beyond batting average and slugging percentage, some fairly basic techniques for gauging the effectiveness of a batter's performance

Average Runs Per Play

177

(30)

More sophisticated measures of batting performance, including several models based on the number of runs produced by each play

The Curvature of Baseball

207

(36)

A model that simulates a very large number of baseball events demonstrates that run production is a curved, not linear, phenomenon

Measuring Clutch Play

243

(42)

Techniques for integrating high-stakes game situations (late-inning pressure, two out, a close score) into measures of performance

Prediction

285

(26)

How we predict the performances of teams and individuals, and a discussion of just how reliable these predictions may be

Did the Best Team Win?

311

(32)

Whether the winner of the World Series is the best team in baseball, and the likelihood that an ``average'' team will excel in the post-season

Post-Game Comments (An Afterword)

343

A brief afterword, in which the book's recurrent themes, and especially the role that chance plays in baseball statistics, are reviewed

Supplemental Materials

What is included with this book?

The New copy of this book will include any supplemental materials advertised. Please check the title of the book to determine if it should include any access cards, study guides, lab manuals, CDs, etc.

The Used, Rental and eBook copies of this book are not guaranteed to include any supplemental materials. Typically, only the book itself is included. This is true even if the title states it includes any access cards, study guides, lab manuals, CDs, etc.

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